Hatewarmth

Once again I’ll state this has ALWAYS been progged for the 15th

Totally agree with this. Remember folks that in this sort of setup the reliable is greatly reduced. Not only that very small differences early on can make a HUGE difference further down the line. i understand that certain models don’t show what they did 48 hours ago but it’s out in FI and should although be noted, also understood that it will very likely change hopefully for the better but yes unfortunately for the worse. Anything after 120 (at the most) should be viewed as trend spotting and not to be taken as gospel. as the above has stated everything in the reliable is still looking good so do not understand the downbeat mood either. It’s just variations of broadly the same pattern and if the SSW does happen it will only reinforce the oattern

It’s just variations of the same general pattern. It’s impossible for models to be so accurate so far out hence why people are debating then Ok maybe you just need to smile as that’s what the models are making most on here do

The real cold has always been progged for the 15th for a week now. Patience Is there a reason why you always try to contradict everyone else on here. Well at least that’s how your coming across

Correct me if I’m wrong but is this evidence that the ECZm op was in fact an outlier

No disrespect but everyone else is saying it’s better than the previous run. Also 7 and 8 days is outside the reliable and will change. Again see where it sit in their essembke

They are all on the same wave length just variations of the same theme. Also remember let see where the ECM op run sits in its own essembles

This is the model thread not met office outlook

Look at t+36. Want the high to be further north

This for me is the key to the ECM coming on board with the second push. Must go north

Exactly. Remember small differences early on can make big differences later on. And at 48 it’s against all the other models. BUT still has to be taken seriously. On the 12z ecm we need to be looking at a shift north at 36. This could make all the difference later on

Think you drank too much as it is January Happy new year all

Although I understand all the optimism in here at the moment and look I get it all we can do is comment on what the models are showing at any given timeframe even if anything past +120 is La La land, I really do urge caution. How many cold spells have we seen at this range in the past only for them to disintegrate into nothing once we get into the 6 day range. I want a winter navana as much as anyone but anything post 120 is purely about looking for trends. On a more positive note this cold spell that’s been projected for around the 7th has nothing to do with any prediction SSW so if and when a SSW does happen it could potentially reinforce our cold spell if it does happen. My only worry is that we end up with a high pressure stick over us and slack easterly winds which in turn will not produce much of what we all want SNOW. Anyway that’s my take on it and fingers crossed we can get charts that we are seeing at day 10 into the day 3 range

Spot on. I understand that people look further ahead for TRENDS but reliable been 192 na man. Day 4 max

Looking at the radar seams to decay just north east of Macclesfield. Hope the main band following it has enough umph to push it through to us. Not sure but we will know in next hour or two

Not sure why people will think South Yorkshire will do well. The Pennines block everything and my feeling is that it will decay. Hope I’m wrong

Just been out 5 minutes ago and was rsin, then slept now wet now. I’m at 74asl so didn’t expect that. hoping the warm Irish Sea fuels the band. The one over Wales seamed to break up but now looks like it’s intensifying again. Truth is we all guessing

What times is main belt due. Looking at apps says between 11 and 12

What are your thoughts for Sunday night snd Mondays system

The big question is will the band survive the pennines

There is a lot of people in northern England so not sadly. This world needs to be less selfish

This is exactly what i was saying yesterday would happen. More often than not the low will track further south and with winds going NE Yorkshire get pummelled with showers and steamers

IMO all the southerners will be gutted. Watch the low go south into France Yorkshire gets bummed in these set-ups. Winds go SE, warm North Sea and shower or steamer after shower or steamer goes straight through our area. Never forecast even at T + 0. Our area needs a NE wind for any SIGNIFICANT snow and looks what coming. AND the good thing is all models agree pretty much on this. EVEN BETTER is assuming the low does go south then the 850’s will be colder making it less marginal. Now let just hope my theory is correct Meant winds go NE NOT SE sorry

Does it not have support from the ukmo 12z?

This is exactly what I was saying in a previous post. Low to track south and warm North Sea to generate shower and steamers driving inland. This is where the proper snow will come from