Jono E

Hi all, I need to try and sneak a Dan Hutchings, Stateside (Boston) update in here as the mods are really on my back, that’s the qualifying moan. Anyway’s, Jet-stream heading South through Feb which opens the door to colder conditions and possible surprises. Dan is calling a significant Icelandic wedge that is going to drag and establish cold air across the UK. This could be a precursor to some Eastern promise. Hope this cheers you up and that you get to read this before the mods swoop which I’m sure they will. I’m expecting a harsh sanction for this but it’s worth it just to bring you this positive call from Dan !

I’m just passing on information that’s coming out of Boston. It is model related. I’m a coldie myself, I think March will deliver.

Dan Hutchings, Stateside, is suggesting that we are likely to see weeks of very unsettled and mild weather in the UK. This is due partly to the cold artic plunge into the USA and the positioning of the UK in a Geographical context. He does hint at potential Greenland blocking in March associated with an uptick in the MJO.

Dan Hutchings, Stateside, is ramping up an unprecedented extreme jet stream developing toward the tail end of next week. Due to extreme temperature gradients and other global anomalies. This is what the models are now factoring in and …I’m afraid it leads to a raging PV and a prolonged zonal setup. Looking to March now !

Models are firming up on the detail now - Midlands/South a wintry mix, rain/sleet/snow away from higher elevations on Tuesday-Wednesday. More significant snow for Northern parts on Thursday. So, disappointing considering the synoptics. Need to get this pattern in the winter months for anything significant.

Forget loco-zonal, we are going full blown pano-zonal, Europe wide. The PV becomes well established, it’s a difficult beast to break down. A real kick in the teeth, all fingers and toes crossed for February !

“Going loco-zonal acapulco, it has all gone wrong “ “Going loco-zonal acapulco, the flow from the South-West so strong “ Merry Christmas All !

Sorry guys, I should have elaborated. Loco-zonal is a more localised type of zonality. With zonal patterns for Northwestern Europe never fully extending into Central Europe. Basically mild, wet and windy for the UK. I hope that provides some clarification.

Met guys stateside are calling loco-zonal for North- Western Europe for the foreseeable. The models back this up with the PV winding up unfavourably.

This really has a sniff of a few years ago (2018 I think). We seen to be heading into a loco-zonal set up and this will become entrenched. Loco-zonal is typical for the UK and ……disappointing.

Heavy snow & currently 0.3 in Pembs

As we discussed earlier, fantasy island is currently set at 72 hrs

As we discussed earlier, I think we need to get to as late as Thursday or Friday before confidence builds regarding next week. Who remembers the 80’s when cold air masses would win out against all expectations (even from senior forecasters). Though, probability wise it is more than likely the end of the road for this short spell of wintry weather.

As we discussed earlier - Try not to get too disappointed with one model run folks ! - We have to get the attempted mild push out of the way on Friday and then see how the land lies - Twists and turns ahead folks and I would advise you keep the bigger picture in mind. Even ‘the professionals’ are uncertain regarding the weather at the end of the week !

As we discussed earlier - all to play for - a multitude of options could be available. The mild has already been delayed and pushed back once and this could happen again. Stay positive folks - with set ups like this things can flip from one day to the next

As we discussed earlier - all the pieces of the jigsaw appear to be falling into place now, the time is near when we can all feel relatively confident. Let us get the cold in first, something that we all agree on. Then let’s see how this evolves with interest. I think we can be certain that wintry weather is on the way, will it be severe, let’s wait and see. Let’s enjoy the build up and savour the synoptics. It could be the one ??. The beast and cold are knocking on our door.. the question is - Do we let them in ?

Someone’s knocking on the door (the beast) Somebody’s ringing the bell (the beast) Do me a favour (ECM) open the door ..... and let him in ?️.....

Someone’s knocking on the door (the beast) Somebody’s ringing the bell (the beast) Do me a favour (GFS) open the door ..... and let him in ?️.....

This could all go wrong, please please understand and learn the lessons of the past