Ian Docwra
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Posts posted by Ian Docwra
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39 minutes ago, ptow said:
Its warmer than expected today. Was expecting another ice day but temp is already 1
Much less high cloud today is allowing stronger sunshine.
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A freezing day today (max. -0.3C) owing to a fair bit of cloud to the south dimming the sun here. Beautiful day after a film of snow came down last night. The ground is rock hard now (too late!). A local path by a busy road has this on the railings where a broken drain pours water down the road.
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A very thin film here, as predicted, from flurries last evening, when the slightly heavier snow went just to the south of us. Snow in shaded areas only now, but the ground is hard. Mild to come but then possibly snowy again, but I have my doubts about the return of the very cold weather. Another week on also adds to the insolation values.
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9 minutes ago, GSP said:
Interesting how subtle little wind changes had such an impact for many. Just a 10 degree change meant make or break for a number. In the early hours for here that was ‘position A’ from what was available, an easterly with perhaps just a couple of degrees southerly to it.
A '10 degree change"?
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Light snow here, with almost no wind. -2.3C before the snow, now -1.8C. The hard frost is meaning, unlike the first batch, every flake is settling, but, unless the flow in from the east keeps enough moisture, it may only give a film on the ground by morning. Only light echoes upwind and pressure rising don't make for anything significant.
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3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Yep, but for some reason, the snow goes west at times, mostly east. Just think it's it's strange.
Heavy showers have updrafts which can pull air in from all directions, so falling snow can be pulled around in all directions.
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26 minutes ago, saintkip said:
No the showers are moving west
OK. The direction things come from is 'xxxxerly', where they're going is 'xxxxwards'.
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8 minutes ago, Southender said:
Definitely a more Westerly shift with the showers now. Just had a shower pass through Southend.
Easterly, surely?
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10 minutes ago, lawrenk said:
Clear skies and it feels pretty much like game over for this part of East Sussex, just too far west and everything sliding away to our south east or dying out before it gets here. Will be delighted to look a fool and be proven wrong later on though!
Been frustrating overall, though given we’re not in the most favoured location and others have got less than us I shouldn’t complain. It’s just been the case that we’ve been on the edge of things throughout and missed the heavier stuff, apart from a brief period during the day on Sunday when the ground was too warm for much to settle.
Well done to everyone though who’s hit the jackpot during this spell. On to the next chase. Will there be one more this winter?
Yes, well done for making it happen...!
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15 minutes ago, D.V.R said:
The showers are moving more inland again.
A few are, but they're decaying rapidly as they do so.
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BBC being very cautious about tonight's likely UK low, compared with latest MO report from the site of -15C at 1900. With at least twelve hours of clear sky to come, why on earth would they assume a minimum of -9C? A Scottish site, but an issue which applies everywhere - i.e. taking account of actual conditions in forecasts.
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Interesting effect this afternoon after a flurry left a thin covering of snow on our frozen pond. The willow's shadow had preserved a tree shape on the ice while the sun melted the rest.
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5 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:
Like I said not great at reading radar and don't know where airmasses come from and don't know a thing about clippers or streamers or slappers. You can get good content from an area of Sussex though always adds value
Interesting to know how being a storm chaser squares with not being a radar reader?
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14 minutes ago, Southender said:
How low can we go tonight across the region? I’m going for somewhere nudging -10c if skies stay clear.
The BBC is showing -10C very widely across Surrey, but I think they are assuming snow cover.
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2 minutes ago, Fresco1985 said:
Live on the river in Battersea in London and those showers keep coming from nowhere..
UHI effect is forcing air to rise over London, creating tall enough clouds to create ppn.
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2 minutes ago, Team Squirrel said:
Went for my daily walk at lunchtime, and while it was sunny when we set off, we got caught in the most amazing snow-ish, graupel-ish shower. There was a mixture of shapes but among them, beautiful big flakes retaining their snowflake shape, albeit in a sort of icy form. This one landed on the arm of my coat and stayed there for 3 or 4 minutes unchanged - so beautiful!
Very nice - it almost looks sewn on!
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2 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:
Indeed - which makes their bullishness all the more surprising. And encouraging. Long way off but clearly strong signals.
Ah, but encouraging for what? They're saying very mild and wet from Sunday onwards which, judging by your moniker, may not be your preference.
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1 minute ago, pureasthedriven said:
That’s amazingly bullish from the MO at that range. Interesting...
There still seems to be a major disparity between the models' outcomes.
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A real gem of an example of the UHI effect here. The three showers now to the SW of London all developed as they hit London from virtually nothing.
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3 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:
Drive through it then! Good luck and post your results
A 'whiteout' is when it's impossible to distinguish ground from sky, and a 'blizzard' is when heavy falling and/or lying snow is blown around severely by sustained strong winds, giving prolonged horizontal snow and major drifting. What's happened today has been moderate to heavy snow showers. Still wouldn't drive through them, though.
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1 minute ago, Wimbledon88 said:
Latest Met office further outlook.
Looks like this winter is Far from over. Bear in mind their outlooks have been amazingly accurate recently.
No, no, no - ITV weather has just confirmed double figures temps. from Monday onwards for a week plus.
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3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:
Of course.. not expecting anything from them - just intrigued to see what happens.
Actually some UHI effect seems to be sustaining/bolstering the ones coming across Central London.
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2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:
There's some shower activity popping up around london and intensifying as they move south
Their power supply is about to set, though.
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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:
We just have to accept being in in the worst spot for snow. I’ll trade it off for Cambridge being one of the best places to live and warm in the summer!
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:Indeed, the hottest place in the UK!
South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards
in Regional
Posted
I really do wonder what the models are aware of - at the start of this spell they seemed to be unaware of saturated, warm ground over most of the UK, and North Sea SSTs being much higher than normal. Models, of course, are immensely complex, but these two factors are pretty basic for predicting snow formation and accumulation.