[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Another major BBC self-contradiction this morning - the TV forecast told of a battle between mild and cold air masses this weekend, with the cold winning, whereas their web pages show double-figure temperatures for the SE next week!  

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

4 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

When do you think the solar influence today will reduce enough to allow for better settling of snow? 

Depends where you are - how thick the cloud is, etc.  Heavier snow showers will both cut out the solar warming and bring colder air down with the snow, lowering the temperature.  The same cycle can continue until late afternoon when the sun's warmth is gone.  Then the opposite effect takes over - clear skies lead to rapid cooling as the earth radiates heat away, but clouds limit the cooling through their insulating effect.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, fujita5 said:

The Easterly flow is a double edged sword on the coast... The sea track is a bit longer and the winds are lighter than before. This allows more time for convection to develop, but also allows the surface air to warm a little more. Getting some lovely heavy showers with big flakes but the existing snow is starting to melt.

An easterly flow gives a shorter sea track than the north-easterly we've been having.  Trace back from, say, the Thames estuary along each track and see the distances involved before hitting land again.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

4 minutes ago, joespontiac said:

Was this the band supposedly heading to France? Seems further north. Won’t make it here but may clip the south coast as it hits the easterly winds?? But I don’t follow the models so not sure  

It'll probably run along the channel to N. France.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Regarding temperatures, something that may be worth bearing in mind is that the sun at the moment is getting high enough to provide a little warmth even through moderate cloud.  This means that its radiative effect can warm many surfaces and objects enough to raise them a little above freezing even when it's snowing lightly.  This includes cars and conservatories, paths with some bare areas showing (dark absorbs heat much more than snow) and metal garden furniture, for example.  These can all be sitting at a degree or so above freezing even if the air temperature is not.  The stronger wind reduces the effect as it drags the heat away and evaporation cools the surface.  Today's wind is much lighter than yesterday's and the warming effect is more apparent.  If we were in mid-December, solar warming would be much less significant.

 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

No streamers around the SE, but one in the Channel and another, smaller, one over north Hampshire/Dorset.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, Leo97t said:

Looks good for the Thames southwards - Surprised there's no amber 

It's nowhere near heavy enough for Amber!  There would need to be major streamers delivering huge amounts to warrant that (as with EA over the last two days).  The amount heading across barely even warrants a Yellow warning.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Just now, abovefreezing said:

Can anyone explain why, with temperatures below freezing, there is absolutely zero settle on my paving slabs all the way up the garden? Generally, not impressive apart from on the grass, despite days of falling snizzle.

A number of reasons are possible - for a start:

1. Drains or pipes running underneath (we have this with our front path) 

2. The ground still has some deeper warmth from the mild weather before the snow and this leaches upwards

3. Salt residue

4. Generally, slabs and concrete transmit heat better than grass, and heat leaks from houses' foundations to surrounding areas and warms them enough to prevent anything but brief freezing in strong winds, when the heat leaking out is overwhelmed by the constant influx of colder air.  Lighter winds can't take that heat away fast enough.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Just now, Oaks said:

What does the rest of February look like are we staying in the cold ? 

At the moment it looks as if the colder influence will dominate for the foreseeable future - how cold exactly is unclear, but we are getting to mid-February soon and the sun is getting stronger.   However, clear nights can still produce some very low minima over snow cover (-15C last night in Scotland, and the same tonight).

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

9 minutes ago, Southender said:

Easterly wind coming off the N.Sea will always raise the temps a bit. Will see a bit of a thaw today maybe even the dreaded drips this afternoon. We have some cold nights to come so shouldn’t be too much damage to the snow pack

The wind has been coming off the North Sea for the entire cold spell.   An E, rather than NE, wind has a shorter sea track so should make it colder still, but there are other factors at play -  the wind is a little lighter today and there is a little more solar warming through the thinner clouds, pushing the temperature up a tad.  Remember we are now nearly a month and a half on from the shortest day so the sun is gaining a little more power.  We are now at -0.6c here (from -1.2C an hour ago) in NE Surrey with a few flakes falling, but the sky is much brighter than yesterday - i.e. more insolation reaching the surface.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

It seems that the whole area of snow over Essex/N Kent, although generally weakening slowly, is steadily translating SW, such that while individual pulses come and go, they are replaced by new ones a little further SW.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

By the way, I'm sure this has been answered countless times, but what IS the strong radar signal just off Thanet's east coast which shows intense activity but sits there unmoving for hours at a time?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

BBC has my location has tomorrow as heavy snow!?!...I take it not worth looking at? Southend a few miles away to the south as just cloudy.

The BBC even now is showing heavy snow showers for Kenley, Surrey for hours to come.  It simply isn't the case as the heavier snow is weakening very rapidly as it comes off the estuary.  Inland progress diminishes the snow to a few flakes in about ten miles.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

7 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Says 1.4c now but this is the thermometer that broke I.know I'm.the warmest spot by the times at the bottom of a hill nearish to that 0c

That may have a bearing on it.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

9 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

If the met office is right, then we could be in for a long cold spell, until at leist 8th march!  :

Long range forecast

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal across the whole UK.

 

I did note from the Met Office pressure charts that the high over southern Scandinavia is set to intensify quite quickly by late in the week (to 1043mb), which may provide renewed blocking.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Did some one say there is a small mild sector.. it appears that way as I'm at highest all day at -1.2 

Yes, after a day-time maximum of -1.3c, we are now at -1.1C after it fell to -1.6C earlier in the evening.  The breeze is strong enough that this isn't due to clear/cloudy variations, but the very feeble warmer sector.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

To see the strange power of streamers have a look at the radar for The Wash streamer and look at the sudden heavier blob near...Hereford!

 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

6 minutes ago, Weather Wonder said:

A few screen grabs from the bbc for the Thames streamer overnight. Following the same path as shown on euro4 12z

 

Not to be taken literally - they are just indicative of showers/streamers in general.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, Ols500 said:

What about epsom?

The further NE you are the better, so a little better than Godalming, but it won't be spectacular.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Difficult to say. Clearly there are showers forming and they may eventually push further inland, but we'll still need to be lucky to get into a shower stream and stay there for any length of time. Right now I'd guess we're too far south for the most intense streamer activity, but it's just impossible to know how that's going to organise itself over the next 6-9 hours.

As I noted before, the latest FAX for Wednesday looks really promising for us with a convergence zone exactly where we want it as winds switch back towards NE'ly, but as much discussed on here, there is still time for that to change... unfortunately...

The large area of snow over SW Essex looks to be weakening rapidly now - to be expected, but hopes picked up a little there for some photos tonight!

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Quick question - sorry I’m not too knowledgable about the behaviour of streamers... but what kind of effect would one have on Surrey/ Hants region?

Sadly for us, unless it's a particularly vigorous one, not much.  I'm a little further E than you, but unless a strong and concerted streamer sets up it will lose potency after a few tens of miles in most cases meaning relatively little down here.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, Mr Brown said:

REALLY need the winds to switch to NE/E because it’s gonna be a repetitive cycle of bands looking primed for London and decaying over Southend. 

Did you mean ENE there?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

3 minutes ago, Howie said:

Really need the wind to swing easterly now, this is getting on my nerves

Perhaps, but bear in mind that an easterly component will have a shorter sea track and therefore less moisture can be collected and then released as snow.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

The radar echoes from the EA/Essex area of snowfall seems to have several gaps where it goes from heavy snow to nothing without any gradation at all, almost as if in a dead zone.  What's causing this, as I can't see it actually being the case that there are small fixed areas embedded in heavy snow where it's bone dry without any tail-off into those areas?  In the screenshot they are the white patches in the leading area of green, which, on the animation, stay where they are as the green echoes pass by (like rocks in a stream).

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Apart from the downright fun of having some heavy snow, as a keen photographer, I'm hoping to get some night shots of falling snow with various light sources, so I'm watching the progress of the area of snow over Essex with interest for a possible arrival here in NE Surrey after dark.