[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

22 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I really hope this cold spell isn’t so severe that it hampers the vaccination roll out, it’s quite ironic really that we’ve had woeful winters for years and the one year I’d almost accepted it was for the greater good that there was no freeze, we look like we might get one  

Well, severe snow appears to be limited to a narrow band of near-coastal EA and Kent, the rest to get flurries and a grey, not white ground, so the very cold weather shouldn't hamper 99% of the country.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

16 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

If I were you I’d grab a bin and Chuck NW’s “will it” predictors right at the bottom of the grabbed bin. 
 

in my experience they’re useless, for example, I’ve had storms when the predictor said 0%.... 

 

I’m sure the snow predictor is in the same category  

This site IS NetWeather, though!  What does that say about 'us' and 'our' criticisms of other sites?

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

This is odd - NetWeather's snow risk for Coldharbour (Leith Hill, south of Dorking) shows a run of 95% snow risk tomorrow morning then a three hour period shows 0%, then 95% again for the next three hour period!  What would prompt them to show such a definitive 0% suddenly there out of nowhere - don't they handle numbers like, say, 30%?!  

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, TomLO04 said:

So pointless then?

The Dutch have presumably given the low a name because they see it as having a major impact on their weather.  The name changes nothing physically but allows the media to refer to it.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

That's amazing, snow is even settling in the North Sea 

Indeed - given the hype here, it will presumably be frozen by then!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Just seen the BBC TV SE forecast for Sunday which simultaneously showed snow across the region, but with temps. at +2C north of London and +3C south of the Thames!  All this while they claim 0C on the web site for the same areas for the same day!  Why can they never get their data joined up to provide a consistent output?  It's a wonder their MeteoGroup contract hasn't been scrutinised more closely (and been found wanting) before now.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Red warning? 

Say it aint so...

I thought red warnings are only issued when there is immediate danger to life, not 36-48 hours before the event.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

21 minutes ago, Hammer said:

Literally I am outside the purple area by a millimetre. It must be about 1 mile from my location here on East Herts / West Essex border.

Shouldn't take you long to walk a millimetre...

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

I see the BBC Weather SE summary has snow showers for the SE followed by flurries during the week.  However, taking Southend as an example, they show heavy continuous snow for Sunday morning, not showers.  This is one reason for my deepening distrust of the BBC's weather output (Meteo) - there are far too many inconsistencies within their own output.  Even if their overall model is wrong, at least get the public output from that model right!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The air will be cold enough, thats not a concern at all.

Once it tucks in you probably will be struggling to get above 0c until Thursday at least.

More uncertainty is just how much precip there actually will be around. in our neck of the woods, its quite possible looking at the 06z high resolution models that we are going to be stuck between two separate snowier zones. Thats not to say there won't be snow, but it may well be higher both east AND west of us, depending on timings.

PS - you'd be in a good place should the Thames streamer effect happen though, really good position.

Yes the air might just be cold enough at better altitude, but the ground is very warm for the time of year.   We are located such that we are almost always shielded from Kentish and Thames streamers, though, so my expectation is for thin slush.  Nothing to stop me walking up Box Hill down the road for something a tad colder though!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Here in NE Surrey I expect patchy sleet and rain at my level (75m) and wet snow on the Downs, Leith Hill, etc.  After this week's very mild weather the ground is just too warm and wet (especially with rain preceding any sleet and snow) to accept settling snow at first and even when it does start to settle there won't be enough of it to produce interest (we're out of the firing line of any possible streamers anyway).  I've been out all day putting up a wire fence along our hedges (to keep our dog in) and it was hot work in the strong sun and mild air.

I'll have to content myself with the pleasant fall we had on 24 -26 January here.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

13 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

Id be up for a slap bang in the middle home countries thread, literally just Surrey  anyone else with me

Not a problem, with the epicentre ten miles south of you!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

13 minutes ago, SHM040519 said:

I swear if all we get is cold rain, I will never follow a potential cold spell again. On paper, this is perfect for east kent!

You say that, but you'd be back next time - the snow demon cannot be defeated!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

24 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Lol, I thought it was all sorted.. snowmageddon etc etc and lo, it isn’t. You can’t make it up. 

'Making it up' is exactly what many are doing by choosing the models that fit their wishes!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

15 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Horrible UHI effect over Greater London though, as ever.

 

I do hope Londoners get out to Epping Forest and similar where totals will be 2-3x that in Zones 1 & 2. 

Essential travel only - snow watching is not exempt!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

From 24 January - something to devour, perhaps, before whatever occurs this Sunday.  Ignore the 'Bruno' part of the title - I clipped the section with our dog out to make it a reasonable length video.

 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

20 minutes ago, fluid dynamic said:

 

For sale. Sledge. One careful owner... you know you want one so here she is.... spares or repair £50. Collect only.

HOW careful, exactly?!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

So just to put this down and come back to it first part of next week Neil in North Kent is predicting 0.2cm and Ian in Surrey is predicting 1cm.

Will come back to Page 32 next week to see how close your predictions are thanks for those guys 

My "1cm drifts" comment was jocular in response to the "0.2cm" level depth.  Who knows, the North Downs could see 10cm+ but everything is speculation even up to the figurative last minute.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

An example of BBC Meteo's forecasts' nonsense - screenshot from a minute ago - while the south of England is under a large area of heavy rain which has been approaching for hours, the BBC sticks to its "light showers" rubbish.

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

8 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

I suspect I will have to get my small plank of wood out on Saturday.

Measuring will be a hard job in the tremendous blizzards accumulating in 0.2 cm

Also, with drifts up to 1cm, it will be tough out there!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

For snow lovers, the good thing about the Jan 24th fall here in Surrey was that it fell onto frosty, frozen ground and settled immediately.  The forthcoming snow (if any) would be falling onto warmer, wet ground and settling would be delayed by early melting.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

43 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

2018 was, compared to the immediate years before, good here but still left me feeling frustrated given the set up. We did OK from the showers on the Monday evening, giving us 3 cms or   so but then nothing more until Fridays low came up, when it turned out we were a bit too far to the East, giving us no more than 2 or 3 cms again.

It also emphasised that, even in an extreme set up like that, the strength of the sun by late Feb, early March really makes it hard to keep snow on the ground, in the far south at least. That’s why it’s good we’re getting (hopefully) this cold spell before it’s too late.

That's what made 'The Beast' so rare - in early and mid-March we had several consecutive freezing days because the sky was grey for much of the time.  Unheard of in mid-March here in the far south.  Photo from 18 March at -2C (max).

 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

I had snow on the ground for over 2 weeks.

That 2018 event.

Lovely icicles too.

Yes - I think we had a streamer effect in Epsom in December 1982.  I recall coming home from work on the train and between adjacent stations (Worcester Park and Stoneleigh) the snow depth more than doubled!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

9 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I've always assumed that today's computer models work on the same foundation, as the old-fashioned 'slide rule' versions did: the laws of thermodynamics?

Yes , I would assume that they must form the bulk of it, but some historical data too?  Maybe not.  In which case, references to what has happened in past, ostensibly similar, scenarios are of little value.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

I think one of the problems with models using historical data is that we appear to be in a period of unprecendently rapid climate change and so history becomes less relevant.  Of course, it's impossible to avoid the historical element, but its use becomes far trickier with SSTs, ice cover and thickness, atmospheric pollution and so on changing so significantly from previous decades.  I have no solution, obviously, but it has to be accepted that we are dealing with a global data set that is changing so much that its behaviour becomes ever more elusive.  Models' computing power cannot necessarily keep pace with increasing variables.