Steve Edgefield

Looks to me as if there is a real possibility that most of the precipitation will just move to the west of Norfolk. There is nothing at the moment and it looks like it is now on a more southerly track. I hope I'm wrong but it wouldn't suprise me.

Having read Brickfielder's post from last night, he is suggesting that there may be a number of phases to this event. I think many people, mysefl included, expect large MMW = automatic northern blocking = high impact cold and if this doesn't occur then the theory goes out the window (myself not included here). People hate complexity and uncertainty and want things to be black and white. This is clearly a major and unusual event and I've become fascinated by it. Yes, it is disappointing that we're heading for a warm phase into next week but as brickfielder has suggested perhaps this is a transitional phase and one which the models will continue to struggle with for a few days yet - we shall see. I'm still of the view that this will still lead to further cold this winter/spring and it will be interesting to see what else during th year. I guess because it is so unusual, it provides us all with a great opportunity to learn.

Very heavy snow for around an hour to an hour and a half last night - approx 1am with everywhere covered by around an inch. Of course, it has now all gone only to be replaced by rain and a temp of 2.7C. We are in "now you see it, now you don't" land. Oh well, I am beginning to think lying snow here is a physical impossibility. The best fall this year reamains at the end of November when it snowed all one Sunday morning with a temperature of around -2 and even some blowing around. Just can't see it coming off this month.

Yes, the problem with this cold spell is that it just isn't that cold. Comparisons with Feb 91 may be relevant in terms of snow but certainly not regards depth of cold where below freezing temps were present during the day. It's just too marginal here and the synoptics are just all wrong with the precipitation being fed from the south west and us bizarrely being nearer the warmer air. To be honest I wish this would all just clear off now and a different pattern emerge. Take today, heavy wet snow this morning with temps dropping to 0.7 gave a covering on the grass. Now it's 2C and all gone again.

Agreed Adrian - same here in the north of the County. Very uneventful and to be honest nothing more than average. Same all along the eastern coastal counties I think so we are not alone.

Well I hope you're right Tamara - we have certainly missed out big time and it's becoming quite depressing. I'm not holding my breath for tonight and tomorrow though here in N Norfolk - looks like we could miss the precipitation altogether according to the latest BBC forecast and what there was showed just rain. btw, I have been avidly following the SSW thread and thank you for all your contributions here and for making them so easy to follow. I am hoping that Norfolk, East Suffolk, East Essex and Kent will get their fair share at some point this month...

Once again I empathise. Same here..I wish I felt more hopeful about the end of the week but most of the action seems further west, north and even south! We could easily miss out I think. Just one of those unfortunate & unusual set ups.

same here in Norfolk - gutted. 2C, blowing a gale, rain and drip, drip, drip of the 3cm we had during the day.

Have seen a few of your posts today and have to agree - me too here in Norfolk. I think for many along the more coastal fringes (and also the majority of central and eastern Norfolk) this has been a real let down. An easterly should really produce the goods. Sadly from the current model output, we could also miss out on potential snow later in the week. Pretty gutted.

it could be that you are under the heavier precipitation - at least according to the radar.

Hi Paul, here in N Norfolk much the same. We have a very thin covering from last night and fine snow at the moment but temps & dewpoints not favourable for any accumulations and all in all very disappointing particularly as we normally do quite well. What can you say..

Seems like Norwich and parts of Norfolk are in a bit of a snow shield. We have some light snow falling at the moment but looking at the radar, the heaviest stuff could easily skirt to our North West. Really disappointing - there is no addition to the few cms we had last night because there is a slow thaw. Oh well..we normally do quite well out of these but not this time.

No more than a 2-3cms max here in North Norfolk overnight - very disappointing. I am not expecting much from this front as I think we are likely to be in the marginal area. Temps and dewpoints already on the rise with some melting occuring on cars and pavements. I think it could be too wet for any further accumulations to occur.

Few light snow showers here in N Norfolk today but nothing much really. Looks like the convection is missing quite a big portion of Norfolk which is disappointing as I had always thought it did quite well in these situations.

Few light snow showers during the day here in North Norfolk but looking at the radar, there is quite a large section of Norfolk which seems to be missing out. Not sure if this is due to change later? Hope so..I always thought Norfolk did well in an easterly..

Here in North Norfolk, we have had some heavyish snow showers since 9.30 this morning giving a slight covering. Temps and dewpoints all over the shop. At 830 this am we had a temp of 2C, dewpoint of -6 and a strong wind. In the snow, temps dropped to 0.5C, dewpoint increased to -1C and the wind dropped slightly. Now we have a clearance, the temp is 1C, dewpoint -5C and the wind has increased again!

Very interesting and informative read Steve - as always! Didn't understand all of it but the stratospheric temperature anomalies clearly stand out as one of the key drivers, perhaps...Having been teased as we entered this winter I was more hopeful that we may be on the verge of a change to the recent cycle which, as one who remembers those 80's easterlies well, felt reassuring..However, my hopes are fading fast with the recent NWP output which looks horribly familiar as we come to the end of December and enter January. Certainly looks like some of that cold will be heading into Greece & Turkey over the next week or so. I do hope that the kind of winters we remember are not gone for the rest of our lifetime.

hi John, I really enjoy reading your thoughts - the minor point that I was trying to make is that it is sometimes hard to translate them into a forecast. Please keep them going..thanks..Steve

Thanks John - an interesting read - not sure I always understand the technicalities of the charts and terminology but am slowly learning. What would be helpful if it's ok to say is for you to put a brief summary at the end of your account for the non-techies amongst us - to give a view in laymen terms of possible upcoming patterns and weather impacts. Would also be good to get GP's take on how things are shaping up compared to his last post which I read - key seemed to be how the AO is progged over the next week or so..

Temp 0.9C Heavy Snow!! Temp earlier this pm 8C with viscious winds Very unexpected!! Beginning to settle on cars and roofs..

Temperature earlier this pm 8C Viscious winds all day Temp now 1.0C Had graupel/sleet for the last hour Now turning to snow An unexpected interesting day's weather - winter's last fling for us!

Just had a heavy hail/snow shower. Temperature 0.8C - started to lie but ground too warm for it to hang around for the night. Shower was really heavy and accompanied by very strong gusts of wind.