Steve Edgefield

Hi GP - thanks for another excellent analysis. As always, I thoroughly enjoy reading them, though I wish my technical understanding was better - your winter forecast is certainly proving to be pretty accurate. I can certainly see evidence within the models of a cranking up of the polar jet and deep in FI, GFS seems to be toying with the idea of a Scandinavian trough. Also, none of the models are keen to keep the block to our east in situ. It seems like a very complex set up, one which the models are likely to struggle with over the next week and it looks like FI could be a short timescale?

Very sensible post - subtle changes could make a big difference. It's a difficult call to make at this stage despite what the models show and I'm keen just to see how the High holds up, or doesn't after the weekend. These aren't typical times..

Strange - in Sawbridgeworth so not far at all but didn't start here until around 830 this morning and unfortunately temp just increased enough this morning for it not to settle. Had it started 2/3 hours earlier, I'm sure we'd have had a few cm's too.

Couldn't agree more - time to keep feet firmly on the ground until there is improved consistency between models and between runs. Interesting though and worth keeping tuned in.

Wrong side of marginal here in East Herts - light snow, temp +0.4C, dp -0.8C but just wet and unpleasant. Surprised to see that there are so many reports of lying snow, even in Central London.

Not even a flake here in East Herts - painfully slow progress of the front it would appear.

Not in the slightest - a little flat after the disappointment over the weekend's easterly (but probably just being greedy!). Just waiting & watching atm, seems to be a lot of uncertainty at a very short range. Will be interesting to see what wins out here. Keep your posts coming - I for one certainly read them with interest even if I don't post too often.

Some people are looking at the pressure charts and making some very uninformed statements about milder weather/breakdowns etc. etc. Remember that most of continental Europe is v cold, including France and so any southerlies/south-easterlies are likely to be cold. This is something of an old style winter where winds from this direction at this time of year are generally cold - something which hasn't necessarily been the case in recent winters.

Very disappointing day - temperature has remained at around 1.8C, dp 1C here in N Norfolk with intermittent snow, sleet, light rain. Pretty rapid thaw of lying snow which is likely to continue throughout the night here. Given this much colder winter, I had quite high hopes for this kind of easterly but not to be. Like others, surprised by the Met O forecast but I guess they were erring on the cautious side given how marginal the situation is. I am surprised, however, they didn't even mention the possibility of sleety conditions along eastern coastal counties if nothing else. I have to say hats off to GFS on this one as their temperature & dewpoint profiles have been spot on so am not surprised by the outcome.

Yes -saw that too and was a bit puzzled. Not even a mention of some higher temps around. Their graphics showed much more precipitation than the radar currently depicts.

Edgefield - well spotted! Not looking that hopeful tonight - apart from a few flurries. Strange how these aren't showing up on the radar. Keep watching that approaching ppn blob shrink with every update! Oh well, can't complain really - the snow today has been pretty good.

Hi - I'm just outside Holt so not that far from you. Are you still reporting snow?

I've been reporting temps of +2C for the last couple of hours. Very disappointing but not unexpected - the models have been forecasting this even if the MetO haven't!

It has also snowed here a few times today with nothing to show on the radar.

Agreed - we have had the best snowfall here for ages and it would be a shame to see this all get ruined with a slushy mix - sadly though I can already hear a bit of drip, drip, drip. You may be better placed in Norwich - quite often this is the case. I'm totally confused about precipitation tonight - reading through these posts. What are your thoughts for the region? I can see there is quite a bit over Germany & NL from the Satellite but not sure where this is all heading.

Temps are rising quite rapidly in N Norfolk - now at +1.7C (highest for days!) with dp -3 (was -6 1.5 hours ago). I don't think this is a good sign for coastal regions at least.

We've done quite well in N Norfolk with a good 2-3 inches overnight blown about into more impressive 6 - 8". At the moment we seem to be in a snow shield - can't quite see where the next band of precipitation is coming from. More concerning though is the rise in temps that will accompany any precipitation, especially tomorrow. GFS has dewpoints forecast to be widely at 1C across the region tomorrow which is likely to make things much more marginal. Obviously better the further inland you go, ie towards East Mids. Would be good to get some more snow though but I'm less optimistic at the moment.

Am surprised there is no orange Met O warning out for Essex.

True Norfolk hasn't done well in recent years but this year a little different depending on where you are. The pre Xmas snow delivered around 6-8" in North Norfolk, the most snow for several years which stayed for well over a week - also v unusual. Over the weekend, there was a dusting each morning and when I left for Herts Mon morning, there was a couple of cm's increasing to a few inches in and around Swaffham.

Can quite easily see the development of the low by following the Met Office radar. Will be interesting to watch how it all progresses.

Interestingly, there are a few reports of temperatures and dewpoints rising in a few places through the Midlands at the moment. A very complex situation still developing.

Tom - that's lovely. I always got told off too for opening curtains and doors and creeping around in the middle of the night to see if it was snowing. Your mum sounds a real character.

Yes noticing this too - could be quite a frustrating wait in the SE corner and always subject to less cold conditions due to nearness to the centre of the low pressure.

There's no doubting that the charts at the moment are pretty amazing but I can't get excited (yet) over a potential easterly in six days time. This is a long, long way off and much could and will change. As we've seen over the last few days a slight change can make a big difference regards precipitation amounts and type. Also, I haven't found the GFS precipitation charts for my area particularly accurate over the last few days. I think it's best to stick to the Met Office for more accurate and up to date forecasts though these often change at short notice as they become more confident.

I am a little sceptial about these lows too. A similar thing happened in February this year where south eastern & eastern coastal counties were tied into the mild sector with just disappointing rain and always marginal. I realise the depth of cold here could well be different but with the North Sea still so warm, it would have to be 'proper' cold to deliver on the coast. Will reserve judgement to the nearer timeframe! Any downgrades to the depth of cold will not be a good thing though - IMBY anyhow.