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eastangliawx

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    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by eastangliawx

    Run to run variation massively decreasing now, low-res models becoming less and less relevant. We getting down to Nowcast level now.

    I suspect gfs is a bit to high still for Tuesday and I suspect it will come down to a max of 40c over the next few runs. Monday on gfs becoming more realistic now. 39c seems to be the sweet spot Monday.

    Met office going with 39c Monday and 40c Tuesday this seems right to me looking at latest models

    For goals:

    Tommorow: should be going for hottest day of year so far (32.7c to beat seems do able)

    Monday: Beating the 38.7c set in 2019, I dont expect us to get 40 but I think at less than 48h, we should have enough to get us past the line (provided there's no last minute cloud or something)

    Tuesday: Breaking 40c, most models going for this except the usual models that underestimate temps. Will be the hardest but is definitely doable.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by eastangliawx

    15 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    It was extremely slow on the last run, so not surprising to see it move closer to the other models.

    Icon still ends up with a 40c in there on Tuesday, but the cut off low is more north east than the other models this run while it was the other way round previously. In my opinion, I think we will end up with a middle ground with the cold front moving across the country Tuesday late afternoon not reaching eastern areas till the late evening . Probably similar to what ukmo shows

    Most importantly aswell i haven't seen any model show the heat leaving the east before midday yet

    ICOOPUK06_105_38.png

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 9th April onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

     explains why there all not in here banging the drums this morning , either that there not up yet

    They are out. Looks like most of the latest models now wanting to keep the warmth going till Friday atleast. Gfs still the quickest on a breakdown with it coming on Friday, but extended further than was previously suggesting and I would guess this will continue as it still has the low unusually deep compared to the others. Many positives this morning.

    Heres ECM, GFS, GEM and ICON at 168h (next friday) so that we can see the differences on the low. 

     

     

    ECMOPEU00_168_1 (3).png

    GFSOPEU00_168_1 (2).png

    GEMOPEU00_168_1.png

    ICOOPEU00_168_1.png

    • Like 8

    Model output discussion 9th April onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, samwx said:

    Good ecm in the more reliable range (96-144h)

    Alot more variation past there, for example here is 192h on yesterday's ec vs todays, this is a good thing as it means its likely going to change again later

    Gfs + Ukmo good this morning aswell

    ECMOPEU12_192_1 (4).png

    ECMOPEU00_192_1 (3).png

    Overall outlook remains the same. A rise in heights Wednesday/Thursday leading to an improvement in our weather over the weekend with higher temps than we have currently, less rain and more sun. What happens after that is anyones guess at the moment

    • Like 2
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