Mark Smithy

Is this a sting jet exit on the GFS?

There is no meteorological foundation for a suggestion that lows always track further north and, specifically with regards to tomorrow it is misleading and wrong. The overnight runs have a slightly more southerly track: see the charts I've posted. Cornwall is certainly right in the firing line.

Erm ... Hope you're not an influencer.

UK Met Office 0z

But 0z GFS follows UKV in a more southerly track. We shouldn't really be surprised that the tracking varies in a storm which is only forming now. You'd be a brave person to bet against the UK Met Office at this short range.

0z GFS nudges the track south again to fall in line with UKV. The Southwest and south, especially south coast, are in the firing line for severe conditions. Whoever it was who said that storms always track north (they don't) and that it would be barely a whisper in Dorset may be in for a surprise. Has to be a Red Warning for this.

What a brilliant post that is by Nick. Absolutely fascinating analysis. Everyone should read it!!!!!!

Following that UKV Met Office output this is an incredible storm brewing. It's not just the intensity but the extent of it. Right across the whole southern half of Britain going by that. And if those windspeeds verify then there's going to be considerable damage.

Thanks for this. I'm Just going to pop the earlier charts up as well because the south-west and south wales are in for an incredible storm going by them. These wind speeds are serious.

This is a wind-up, right? As I assume you know the models are all in agreement. I'll leave it there.

The thing about that storm is that none of the models spotted the intensity of the weather bomb (rapid cyclogenesis) and sting jet. So it significantly upgraded in real time. Those who casually announce on here that storms always downgrade or that they always go north are misleading. What might be true for snow (because of our island location) is not necessarily true for storms. Edit. Amber now issued

This has to be repeated: they are NOT off school across large regions of the worst affected areas in the south. Half-term is next week for them.

ICON-EU is off the scale. Devon schools are not on half-term this week.

Overnight models show no sign of backing down on intensity and severity. There's still a chance that the low will be beginning to fill as it crosses the UK but that's straw clutching. There's a slight problem in that if people mock Dudley they won't take Eunice seriously. It's the Friday storm which looks more severe: ferocious.

Sorry - just seen that Paul posted the same charts a littler earlier

They aren't off in parts of the south-west, including the whole of Devon, until next week. That's a major concern. This is pretty serious stuff if it verifies:

This really isn't funny

What might be helpful then is if people clarify what they mean. The storm has not downgraded at all. What it 'has' done is track a little further south in the model forecasts this morning and, hence, why where you live might not have such intense gusts whilst others further south will have more so i.e. upgrades. There are so many variables in a storm that won't even form until Thursday, far out at sea. One thing to keep an eye on is the possibility that it will reach maximum intensity off the British coast.

I haven't been studying Dudley but you erroneously claimed a 'downgrade' on the Eunice thread and I suspect that for some reason known to you alone you seem intent on declaring downgrades. Maybe it would be more helpful to post charts and substantiated meteorology rather than winding people up. There may be 'downgrades'. There may be all sorts of variables but let's have some backup and not merely seeking to be contentious?

GEM chart shows the vicious nature of this. There is a chance though that the maximum intensity may occur out to sea with the low starting to fill as it transits the UK. Something to keep an eye on.

Yep there's no downgrade at all. Just a very strange and misleading remark. What's important to remember is that this is a nascent formation: it won't even form properly until Thursday far out at the Azores. There's huge room for change: timing, deepening (or not), tracking etc. Anyway, the track is a little further south this morning. Which runs against two erroneous statements made on here: that they always downgrade (they don't) and that they always go further north (they don't). Those wishing for this to be severe need to remember that loss of life can occur and as RabbitEars mentioned infrastructure can be badly disrupted. Not all schools are on half term either.

Just been looking and many of your Devon schools are not on half term until next week. That's a concern.

That's a bit silly. It's not about who is right or wrong on Friday which is a bit playground. Even if it's a nasty storm I won't come on here being silly about whether I was right. This is about whether your general point holds up. You said that these storms are always downgraded which is simply untrue. Sometimes with extreme cyclogenesis the opposite is the case because as Paul (NW) has pointed out, they're damned hard to forecast. By their very nature they develop extremely rapidly. They can just as easily be more violent than less so. Snow events do frequently get downgraded for a variety of reasons connected to our location: I'm sure you don't need me to spell those out. To confuse the two types of weather event is not helpful.

There's no real science behind the idea that a rapid cyclogenesis (weather bomb) storm will be downgraded. Snow events are different matters for all sorts of reasons given our location. But a rapidly deepening low with the jet this strong (200 + mph), the all-important buckle to that jet and some staggering mild air in the mix (17C midweek in London) makes this a potentially very nasty storm indeed. It all depends on the track really. This is simply untrue. And as I've just pointed out, to confuse a storm with a snow event is not good meteorology.

You sure about that?