Mark Smithy

There are at least 4 possible blocking highs for routes to cold and wintry weather in the UK and the Greenland High is only one of those four. The others are, in no particular order: mid-Atlantic Ridge Scandinavian High Omega or Svalbard High You obviously can't have all four going on at the same time. What we do have showing with all of the European models is a mid-Atlantic Ridge. The GFS flattens this. Or rather, some of its ensemble members do but plenty don't. The Europeans for the most part hold onto the mid-Atlantic ridge for longer. I'm very unfazed and pretty cool about the GFS alleged route to zonality. Why? Because its not certain itself. Because all the European models don't agree with it. And because pattern changes often take time to show their hand. I wouldn't be at ALL surprised to see an evolution out of this in the current T200-T240 range for another strong block to form in one of the 4 aforementioned areas.

Perhaps but it has been wrong so many times in recent months whereas ECM has been far more accurate.

With regards to the apparent stand off between the GFS and the rest of the world, the GFS may be right with its hasty return to flat zonality, but looking at the ensembles it can't even agree with itself. I'm siding with the Europeans. Not because I am one but because I think we're in for a major pattern shift. JMA, GEM, UKMO and ECM are all cold to very cold runs. Enough to blast everyone out of mild complacency anyway p..s oh and the GFS has performed very poorly for months

Blimey. Just seen the latest GFS output. That 6 run is quite something. People have every right to talk this down but it must be a long long time since any of us have seen such a potently cold start to winter.

Chart of the day so far? We await ECMWF. I think this cold snap, whether it lasts 3 days, 3 weeks or 3 months is still going to give people a jolt. We have been lulled into mild weather and there is a properly cold spell on the way.

ECM is seriously cold and with a great synoptic set up going forward. GEM is amazing too. It's the potential with the mid-Atlantic block. But look at this. Okay, so it's not as severe as Vostok or Denali but for Basingstoke it's pretty nippy.

It's incredible. I'm jaw-dropped at the moment. Salivating but also kind-of scared. This country is sooooo not geared up for severe winter conditions.

It's also only one week away, with the kickstart this Sunday. I'm amazed to be honest.

Bloody hell. I've just seen the latest models. The ECM, GFS, GEM. Good grief!! Wow wow wow.

I've started warning all my friends about a cold spell of weather. Not just this Sunday but some much deeper penetrating temperatures towards the end of next week. I guess as they say, the devil is in the detail but those model charts look pretty amazing to my amateur eye. I mean, how many times in recent years have models approached the start of winter with this sort of thing showing up?

I have been following the models this summer and autumn when I can tear myself away from cricket. So at the rate things are going we could be shivering in the UK whilst the Ashes start down under? There's always something special about seeing the sunshine from Oz when there's bitter conditions here. And bitter conditions is exactly what seems to be showing up isn't it? The starter signal is this weekend but the real event comes with the chaser a week from now. It's coming at a good time because although snow-wise it would be better in January the potential for deep penetrating cold in late November is definitely there. And it kind of sets things up and fills us with inspiration. Unless of course you'd rather be basking in Brisbane

Pretty progressive overnight model outputs. The GFS has buckled and given up its recency-bias high pressure cell. Autumn looks like it is slowly but surely cranking into gear, folks. Batten down the hatches and enjoy!

Now that the cricket season is drawing to a close I’ve spent some time looking at weather charts. one thing has really struck me: is the GFS system normally this rubbish? It has been all over the place. This coming week is a case in point with its fervent desire to have a massive high pressure cell defying the actual facts that the others pick up.

I thought it was an afternoon event. I remember looking out at snow sweeping across the bridge for about an hour: it was hammering down. But I may be misremembering. ah I think I’m out by a decade! I reckon it was Monday 10th April 2006. found it here: TORRO - Blizzards and Heavy Snowfall WWW.TORRO.ORG.UK The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation or 'TORRO' is a privately supported research body, serving the national and international public interest.

Brrrrrr Wasn’t there a famous snow event one April in London iirc about maybe 10 or even 15 years ago? Some really heavy snowstorm like thundersnow as I recall? I remember watching it sweep across one of the bridges.

After that vicious cold snap we’ve been catapulted into Spring! March can be grim and cold and so can April but basically we’re through winter now. I saw a bit of snowy stuff and there were some notable cold snaps but nothing too bad thankfully. Here’s to a lovely summer with the country gradually re-opening!

Dry as bones in Salisbury today but bitterly cold