milomolly123
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Posts posted by milomolly123
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the Ashbourne storms looks to be getting a bit more severe im looking for that hail signature
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ye im storm chaseing later if we get good storms
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4 minutes ago, milomolly123 said:
how's it looking on radar any hail signature yet
can u take a pic of the clouds pls love to see them
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3 minutes ago, milomolly123 said:
how's it looking on radar any hail signature yet
can u take a pic of the clouds pls love to see them
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Just now, marksp said:
between Ashbourne and Wirksworth about 6 miles South of me
how's it looking on radar any hail signature yet
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4 minutes ago, Ryukai said:
Can see quite a Large Cumulous bubbling up to my SE, Ashbourne way from looks of it.
is that Ashbourne Staffordshire
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2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:
id have thought the Northwest is likely to miss out on the hottest/thundriest conditions..
if we get a south westerly wind then. then north west will be more exposed to to the hotter temps i no this because I've been the north west all my life and where i am we have had 33c when the met office and BBC say only 25c so i feel like ur wrong a little bit like 50/50 your right a bit so am i.
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i don't think that's true just to confirm will this heat be enough to trigger so violent thunderstorms in north west England i feel like all the right conditions are coming out to play here are the key things i think.
1 we will have very unstable air if we get 30c and if there's high humidity it wont take much to turn the storms nasty.
2 if the high stays long enough then we will start to get protracted heat that will make it feel like 32-34c.
3 its all looking good i feel that we have at least got 14-18 days of very warm/hot conditions.
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id expected these storms to turn into severe MSCS and move towards the London area should git around 7-8pm keep radar watching
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heres my severe thunderstorm outlook tell me what u think
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has anyone order a super cell
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the start of the thunderstorms
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its to far out to say id not worry about day11-15 it will change
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it is a very strange may last time i remember was in 1956 i was looking at the C.E.T its crazy how ive looked at the years and 2018/1976/2003 all have a hot may but 2021 is a strange one
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looks like a storms forming around Helmsley north yorks it needs watching im keep a close eye on it i will let u n o if i see any hail signatures
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2 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:
Doesn't look promising here. That rain is just rotating above me and looks set to do so for a while yet. Further south might get luckier if the sun pokes through for a bit
i want some severe storms so bad i feel storm starved
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45 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:
Yea unfortunately wanting a storm doesn't mean it will happen lol. There needs to be key ingredients for storms to happen including but not limited to surface heating, moisture, wind shear, convection, uncapped cloud tops, Cape values, air instability etc. None of these are really prevalent today so it's very unlikely anything will break out. More of a classic British day of sunshine and showers I think.
From what I recollect the best storms last season came mid August when much of Central and North West UK were under a convergence zone due to a plume so conditions were ripe for thunderstorm development and it turned out areas like Liverpool, Manchester and Cheshire, Lancashire and Staffordshire had supercells for 4 or 5 consecutive days. 12th August specifically brought a MCS over Cheshire and strobe lightning with flash flooding and power cuts. Quite rare in the UK for a storm of that size and power.
But yea you get the gist. You can get decent storms as early as May but the big ones tend to happen late summer in my experience
u think we will get some aminzing storms all i want is some MCS or deep imbedded supercells
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1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:
Not sure if anyone has looked through all of the GEM 00z members but this one in particular stood out to me
Bring on the first proper plume of the season. This has uppers over +15c and surface temps over 30c. Add that nice trough feature on the 500mb chart into the mix and BOOM !!!! Thunderstorms galore here maybe.
i really want this to happen the storms would be amazing in that set up count me in
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8 minutes ago, BrickFielder said:
Still a chance of some storms today but generally the air profile is moist all the way up with limited cloud tops.
Upper level trough still dips down over the western an southern halves of the UK enhancing cloud tops but winds are unidirectional all the way up.
Instability looks like it will be in short supply unless cloud breaks which for most will not happen due to the moist profile all the way up the troposphere.
Possibly Scottish Borders and Cumbria look interesting for spout like whirlwinds especially out of the sea. Some heavier down falls possible over parts of the midlands and wales. Again a slight risk of spout features due to low level convergence if lift from the boundary layer cn happen (unlikely unless the sun comes out), with Oxford M4 corridor southwards a potential area.
Not a classic thunderstorm day but a few interesting points.
i disagree today we could have some severe storms even if the cloud doesn't brake were in a convective Patten
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4 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:
Yes, we are now moving into that time of year, where the last remains of the winter/spring chill, will eventually give way to warmer days, and warmer evenings.
I think a few tropical nights will happen. Even in a poor summer, we will get a few nights where the temp doesn't fall below 18-20c.
This could very well be a thundery summer, especially for Southern and Central areas.
it hope we get some decent thunderstorms in Macclesfield in the north west what u reckon
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ye u ever reckon we will have a storm like the one on the night of 15th of October 1987
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u rekon we will get some severe thunderstorms or supercells this summer id love that
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dont worry tropical nights will be here before u no id give it till early to mid june
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30 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:
Looking at the longer term ECM 0z ensemble mean, there are signs of improvement compared to how unsettled the charts look today and again at the weekend?..by day 10 there’s a slacker looking pattern, pressure looks a little higher but there’s still trough influence, albeit weaker by then which probably means a mix of sunshine and heavy thundery showers with lighter winds although still gusty around heavy showers with temperatures closer to average?...beyond that point..I’m using guidance from the GEFS and on balance we could see something more respectable as we approach the start of the meteorological summer with more chance of high pressure / ridging and generally warmer.......just my opinion?.
️ ? ⛈
as long as we get thunderstorms later on i will be happy
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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
looking interesting