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Polar.

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    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Polar.

    22 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

    Aren't SUSTAINED winds from hurricanes 74mph+? Even Cat 1 gusts regularly reach far beyond 100mph. This storm is nowhere near the destructive impacts of a hurricane, let alone a Cat. 2.

    And we calculate sustained winds over a 10 minute period. If we did the 1 minute period for hurricanes, the figure  would often be much higher than it currently is over a 10 minute period. 

    • Like 1

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Polar.

    I don't want to appear hyperbolic but if this plays out bad like it appears there could be up to double digit fatalities. Simply because it's happening during the day and inland across southern England which doesn’t happen often. There will be lots who will not take it seriously. Even a standard storm for more sparsely populated Northern areas can lead to 1 to 2 deaths due to fallen trees. Stay safe and inside everyone and ride it out. Do not drive during it.

    • Like 2

    ALL THINGS AUSTRIA

    in Weather Around The World

    Posted

    1 hour ago, carinthian said:

    Hi, certainly so far the Western Alps have not seen much snow as in Austria. Even at your altitude seems to be rare so far this winter. Euro high not in a good position for French and Swiss Alps and forecast out to 10 day not showing much of an improvement in the snow stakes. Hope things change for you for the second half of the month !

     

    Thanks for the reply. Here's hoping it changes before I go back.

    10 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    The web cams in the Jungfrau region seem okay?

    https://wengen.swiss/en/summer/planning-and-events/webcams/

    Yes. Sadly none in the town I'm in. Will hopefully get a day trip to the mountains before I head back.

    ALL THINGS AUSTRIA

    in Weather Around The World

    Posted

    The switzerland thread is dead so thought you might be best to ask carinthian. I'm in Western switzerland 450m asl for possibly the rest of the month. Prospects aren't great at home for snow but do you see any glimmer of hope for here or is it as equally as bleak as the UK. Apparently there's only been snow a handful of times here this winter,  all dustings. Cheers 

    Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

    A quick question for the learned on here:

    I'm looking at the front moving in from the Atlantic right now and it has heavy rain across Western Scotland extending down to Western Ireland, however, from the North coast of Donegal down to Galway the rain isn't showing along the frontal boundary.

    What would cause this?

    Thanks in advance.

     

    image.thumb.png.51b53fb139de9c9e0d08861448c4e81e.png

    It was showing on the met office radar. Must be an issue with netweather radar for that area.

    • Like 2
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    • Popular Post

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Polar.

    I fear some think this is a certainty after the latest runs. The track of the low will probably change again. There's too much uncertainty still on the exact track. I'm sure it will snow somewhere, I'm not disputing that but I'd air on the side of caution. It could travel further North, further south,  stay the same. We simply don't know, there is no consistency yet for anyone to know where the low will track. 

    • Like 13
    • Thanks 1

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

    EPS on the 18th..

    FHE86_BXIAEK3vd.thumb.jpeg.5f91ef8d6519c68cf5fec3e8fd630662.jpeg

    EPS today

    FHE86-7XsAI2Q07.thumb.jpeg.e677a85c3f7ea02b4b6d6f3f9c4555f7.jpeg


    If that isn't a substantial shift away from colder solutions then I don't know what is. All models have handled this incredibly poorly, falling AAM and a waning MJO signal into January is making this late Dec cold a bit "all or nothing", the signal for something more westerly Jan/Feb is growing. 

    Personally this is looking like nothing more than a bog standard cold spell now, a few lucky spots in the north should do quite well but if you're in the south its looking very meh, no matter how many ENS members you pluck out.

    Someone posted a picture of straws earlier, hope you've still got em handy  

    We don't even know what's going to happen on Christmas day yet let alone January or February. 

    • Like 2

    Storm Arwen

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

    The main thing that bugs me is how they decide a warning is issued. The other is that they are too slow updating so when it's clearly not happening warnings can stay up hours. In this day and age it's not good enough.

    They need to sort out their Web page when there's multiple warnings in force overlapping one another. Today it looks like a rainbow puked. How the average person who doesn't often follow the weather is supposed to make sense of that is beyond me and traffic on the site will increase on days like today from those who wouldn't normally visit. 

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