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UnderTheAnvil

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    Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Catacol said:

    "Background Zealots"? Hmm. Is this where we are at now, where those trying to unravel the complex task of forecasting get labelled as zealots? Either you know what that word means and are therefore genuinely trying to put the boot in, or you don't know what it means and perhaps shouldn't be using it.

    I see in general the knives are out today. Disappointing. Let's have a go at a broad response:

    1. There are 2 areas of ongoing research that interest those with a passion for this kind of stuff. First is the GSDM theory first put together about 15 years ago by Ed Berry. The second is a greater understanding of stratospheric impacts on our weather, another fledgling science that has also been around for 15-20 years approx.

    2. One of the challenges of both approaches is to try and understand the inter relationship between the two. GSDM is largely anchored on developments in the Pacific alongside momentum impacts created by the big mountain ranges - Tibet and Rockies probably most importantly, Urals also. Strat modelling tries to interpret the impact of vertical wave propagation and how the column of air above the arctic is shaped/squeezed/stretched/split (or not) by these waves. Tropospheric patterns feed into the strat and vice versa - so they are definitely linked - but an understanding of the links is still in its infancy. When Amy Butler tweets that the reasons for the failed SSW in early January are not understood (given models tend to under rather than over model the likelihood of an SSW) then you know you are walking in a world of grey. And that failed SSW and what has transpired instead has had a huge hand to play in how January has developed.

    3. From this, we have 2 options. Label these areas of research as a waste of time, as likely to produce accuracy as the advice of a cat (!!), or we engage with what is going on and try and unpick it. CC is not making this any easier because CC is making a mess of analogues - the atmosphere and the overall climate just isn't what it was in the 1960-90 period and adapting to the pace of change and how it impacts forecasting is a challenge.

    4. Some of today's posters would clearly favour the former. Don't bother trying to unlock the door to understanding because it cannot be done. Fair enough - but not for me. I'm not a nihilist and wish to continue to try and learn. Perhaps those who see chaos theory as the only answer to our weather should have a thread all of their own, though the thread would probably make for pointless reading.

    5. Finally - you might want to read posts more carefully. Only the other day I acknowledged in a post that the Xmas forecast was a bust, and that the recent cold was shorter lived than expected. Reasons for both were set out, bust was advertised. Two successes at the same time, early Dec and the snap just gone. And it looks as though next week will bust too. There you go - is that clear enough? If you want the reason laid out again, reflective strat event. Not forecast, not spotted even by those with proper qualifications in relevant climate science. But this winter is not done yet, and I still see distinct opportunity for further cold in February and again into March. 

     

    As a concluding comment, we are dealing in probability forecasting. No one will ever get to the stage where we say "in 10 days' time it will snow in London and 6 inches will fall and stick." Nonsense. We look at probabilities. And when dealing in probability a 95% chance does not always land. I see some criticism of the MetO today as well. Really? Those of you happy to criticise forecasting methodology and happy also to criticise (possibly) the most advanced national Met Office in the world and its choice of language are seeking a level of absolute clarity that is unattainable.

    If you have something to say that adds to the debate, say away. If your words are designed to tear, rip and demolish - silence is a better alternative.

     

    People seem to forget too, for every "bust" and "damp squib" we get, we get more data on the reasons why the forecasts fall short. It can only get more accurate. The people analysing the data and getting it wrong are 1000x more useful to us all than people who (accurately) call a bust with no analysis.

     

    Some people want to learn what makes the weather tick, and others just want to bet it all on The Atlantic because they think that's a safe bet.

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    Correct me if I'm wrong but those build of heights can migrate from the south and build over scandy..The gfs has hinted at this for half a dozen runs now..is it out of the question? Well check the met update to see greater chance if estly winds and there's your answer. For someone to come on here and start saying it's not scientifically possible is tripe..its not scientifically possible to say there a 20% chance of this then an hour later a 30% or back to 15% of this that and the other scenarios!

    Like I said numerous runs toy with the idea of a build of heights through into scandy and that's a positive as we all know how savvy gfs is with detecting early signals.. let's see if ecm and gem towards backend of week or weekend start going down this route also.

    gfsnh-0-306.png

    I was thinking this... has there been a pattern of two HPs linking up and splitting the PV? To my uneducated brain, that's what I've been seeing. Are the heights over Europe threatening to do this soon?

    Model watching for me is like looking at a really slow Lava lamp and going "oooh" when the purple blob visits the UK from the N/NE 😅

    • Like 5
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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by UnderTheAnvil
    Reaction -> Eruption

    57 minutes ago, booferking said:

    If the control is anywhere near right it could be volcanic Ash the disruption over the new year if this volcano continues to eurpt.

    gensnh-0-1-336.png

    Hi, this is my first post here, I've been lurking and attempting to soak up info as I go along, since I have no idea when it comes to winter weather.

    I have however been keeping an eye on Fagradalsfjall. This is an effusive (non-explosive) eruption, meaning the lava gets a long time to cool and doesn't form ash, so there's very little chance of that disrupting anything. Sulphur Dioxide emissions may be worth a look as that does cause atmospheric cooling, and this eruption is a big one, bigger than the previous eruption this year, the fissure already looks to be 4km in length.

    I was joking in November when the tremors started that we'd get a white Christmas if it erupted, especially seeing as summer was very mild while the other volcano was active (probably coincidental). I wasn't really expecting to be hit with the gift of prophesy 🙂

    • Like 8
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    • Insightful 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

    Not my photo but I found this on Facebook, very impressive shot, wonder if red sprites could've been possible

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/143520235831162/permalink/2436784213171408/

    I could swear I saw two on separate lightning flashes above the Sheffield storm on Saturday night. They looked like tangly strings popping up for a fraction of a second above the storm.

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, GSP said:

    I was watching the forecast on GB News this morning. A mention of rain and possible storms this morning, but I sat up when he took a deep breath and mentioned tonight. Can’t quite remember what he said!, But the suggestion was it could be quite notable, severe storms in the east, wind and torrential rain in many parts.

    Could be something for the weather enthusiast methinks!

    If GBeebies is saying it then there's no chance of storms lol

    Just now, Jamie M said:

    image.thumb.png.35024da76b3017ae14f8865339b249d9.pngimage.thumb.png.eb4a47bea16b4f6b25d0dd816898ad7a.png

    UKV 9z is earlier & further west ever so slightly

    Not long until UKV and AROME agree then? I'm on team AROME personally

    • Like 2
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