Summer8906

+1, if it's going to be a mild winter let's make it 0.1C above normal. One of the big problems of excessively mild winters (2015/16 for instance, or 2019/20) is how they bring the spring flowers out too early, while it's still dark and gloomy outside - which it usually is in these extreme winters. Such nonsense as daffodils and plum blossom starting to flower at the end of January. Means that not only is winter dreary but spring is spoiled too! It really is just as well March and April 2016 were below average, otherwise spring would have finished way too early.

Then again, would anyone want a repeat of 2019/20? While a very cold winter would not be ideal this year, I suspect many would prefer an average (temp wise) winter with below average rainfall and above average sunshine. After all the grimness of the past 2 years, I suspect another 19/20 winter with the endless damp and gloom would be a bit much for many. The only hope is that a dry winter over 'France', depending on what we mean by 'France' (the whole country? Just the south and east of France?) might offer hope of a 1989-style winter, which (for those who remember that year) was many orders of magnitude less depressing than the horror show of 19/20. It would be truly extraordinary if we did get a mild and wet winter in the south (and mild + wet normally means dull) because it would further extend the sequence of dull and wet months which have prevailed down here in the south for a long time now for only short interruptions. Surely the sequence has got to break soon? If Nov and Dec 2021 are also duller and wetter than average, then there must be a very good chance 2021 will be the dullest year on record across much of the south - and one of the wettest.

Mind you I rememeber Jan and Feb 2016 as being wet, particularly Jan, down here. In fact here Jan 16 was wetter than Dec 15 I think, as the jetstream moved south. The trend here was from extremely mild and rather wet, to merely mild and more definitively wet. Also down here 2015 seemed to be relatively dry, apart from late July/August. There seemed to be a near-constant WNW wind that year, which is generally a relatively dry direction here, much more so than in the north.

True - to be fair I was thinking more of the pattern since 2013, in which all even years have been mild and wet, and all odd years have been close to or maybe, in some cases, slightly colder than average with more varied synoptics.

Yes, the xenophobic BS on one of those front pages is perhaps the prime thing that makes the Express only worthy of toilet roll material - if that. I am amazed they are using Celsius though. The Express are normally obsessed with Fahrenheit - because anything which was widely adopted after 1970 in the UK is automatically evil and subversive in their eyes. I'm amazed they haven't tried to bring the non-decimal pound back. And as for the mild winter thing - well it will make the Government's hole they've dug for themselves a little less deep. So of course they are going to promote it. Might happen, but might not.

Drier and sunnier than normal with average temps, and one notable snow event, lying on the ground for around a week - plus many frosts in Dec/Jan but a milder and still sunny Feb would be ideal. Preceded by a November that's half sunny and unusually warm, and half sunny and frosty. Gut feeling, though, is mild and wet Jan (because it always seems to happen in even years - completely unscientific I know) with a colder end; a colder December than of late with frequent frosty and sunny weather, and a Feb which has a mix of mild and cold spells.

To be fair 2010/11 wasn't quite over until Feb 1st, the second half of Jan was mostly cold and dry though the first half was wet and somewhat mild. We then regressed into late autumn for a few weeks before spring arrived at the end of February and summer by mid-April. And autumn by June...

I do remember there was one brief warm day on (I think) August 6th 2008 in what was a poor month overall, at least up to the 20th. I seem to remember polar maritime air came in after the warm weather, and that such weather was present on Aug 7th. Here, I recall it being a dry and fairly sunny day but it's certainly conceivable that thundery showers and storms developed further north.

It did get vaguely brighter earlier, but has returned to dull. I think there is a general rule, that holds in pretty much all cases, that if an active warm front (enough to produce significant rain) goes through, and the wind remains southwesterly, there is little or no chance of any sunshine to speak of. The only cases of improving weather behind an active warm front are those where the wind becomes SE and brings in drier tropical continental air, or air from south-eastern Europe. I think the October 1995 warm spell was a rare example of that - an active warm front did pass through, but then the wind backed to a southeasterly quarter and much drier air came in. Text books often mention sunny warm sectors followed by thundery cold fronts, but they are generally written from a US viewpoint, and because the US is a larger landmass it conforms to 'textbook' weather much more than northwestern Europe. Other, more continental parts of Europe 'do' warm sectors and cold fronts better than we do up here, too. Could certainly do with a good thunderstorm to clear this lot out!

Wasn't it that the Biscay low was NOT actually the great storm, but an area of rain which hit the southeast during the daytime? (I still have memories of Thursday 15th being wet and gloomy, but not windy) - and then it was a later wave, which wasn't even on that forecast map, which developed into the Great Storm? Still by far and away the most extreme weather event of my lifetime. October 1987 was synoptically rather curious in general: I remember it actually started fine and sunny before a low moved up from Iberia and produced some warm wet weather with the threat of thunder and unusual high temps for the time of year. Then it became more generally unsettled culminating in the Great Storm, and remaining so (but to a lesser extent) the following week when there was a prolonged power cut. By contrast the half term week (the week after that) was benign and settled again.

Indeed. Clearly illustrates why I'd swap the NW European climate for the Czech climate if I could.

Oh well, the 12 consecutive settled days we've had this month so far were nice. Three days of grotty damp gloom start today. In better news, the models once again aren't too bad for the far south, and the bright interlude later this week starts a bit earlier so Thursday could be bright and dry down here. Latest GFS 06Z continues to show high pressure above 1020mb in the south next week, so while sun will be limited, I suspect, it will often be relatively dry - and warm for the time of the year - so maybe not too unpleasant. Next weekend's disturbance now takes the form of a north-south trough rather than a cutoff low, but pressure isn't too low in the south so maybe a fairly weak system here. Also seems to pass through Saturday night/Sunday morning, arguably the least disruptive timing for the weekend. Nonetheless in view of the very wet first 5 days and wet next 3 days, with lighter rain at times in the last week of the month, I suspect it's odds-on for another duller and wetter month than average, albeit one which will end up very mild. Then that northerly is still there so quite a dramatic change at the turn of the month.

Indeed - it was in fact 1988 (which I experienced for-real) which appears to be similar to 1968 (which I did not). The 1988 sequence warm and sunny - snow - cool and sunny - warm and wet was also seen in 1968 in the same order, though the warm and sunny was in March rather than April.

It's interesting how few really wet spells I remember in this group of winters in particular. Mid-December 1989, mid January to mid February 1990 (the Burns Storm period), and that was more or less it. With three good summers on the trot, too, this was a notably benign spell and one when I thought that the southern English climate in particular was changing to something more closely resembling central western France. Though here neither May nor August 1997 were notably wet - May 1997 was fairly sunny with a wettish spell mid-month. August 1997 had a short warm, humid wet spell just before the notable heat and an autumnal few days at the end, but again wasn't notably wet; November 1997 was when I really noticed it.

Yes, April 1988 as well as April 1991 are what I like to think of as the two most 'typical' or 'classic' Aprils, and what I think of when the phrase 'an average April' comes up. Each had a warm sunny spell of about a week (early in the month in 1988, just before mid-month in 1991) followed by a very rapid change to a cold northerly with snow about. In 1988 snow fell to low levels in the south and then there was a further cooler fine spell, then a change to warm and wet on Friday 15th with some kind of cyclonic S-ly. I recall thunder being on the forecast on Sat 16th which was warm, dull, damp and humid, with 21C forecast despite the cloud - a big contrast from the cool and sunny conditions following the snow earlier in the week. There was another fine spell a bit later, for the weekend of 23rd/24th (possibly a retrogression, can't remember) then more wet right at the end of the month, so pretty varied. 1991 followed its snow with a warmer, cloudyish but fairly dry SE-ly, followed, like 1988, with wet at the end of the month, just in time for the May Bank Holiday. Looking at the archives, it seems that April 1968 was another one (cold and snowy - cool and sunny - warm and wet - warm and drier).

Sorry, forgot about May 2001, that was a notably good month. Spoilt a bit by the foot-and-mouth countryside lockdown, which may be why it didn't come immediately to mind as you couldn't get out so much. (For the same reason, perhaps it's just as well March and April 2001 were wet!) June 2001 also predominantly fine, dry and sunny but there were a couple of short wet spells. July 2001 was an odd one being half cool and wet and half very hot! I was up north at the very start of Jan 2003 so can't remember anything notably wet, though the end of Dec 2002 was very wet. Yes, Oct 1997 was a classic, up there with Oct 2003 and 2010 for varied Octobers with plenty of sunshine. Would add 1995 for its warmth and sunshine to complete the best Octobers of my lifetime. (I was also alive in Oct 1978 but too young to remember much detail about the weather - though it was apparently another good one. I do seem to remember a sequence of dry Sunday tea-times around twilight though).

No worries, it's an interesting topic. August 1998 was dry and sunny in the south. In the south I think June and July 2000 were pretty dry too, though slightly cooler and cloudier than normal. Months that seemed wet (no figures, just from memory) include, by contrast: Nov, Dec 1997 Jan, April, June, September, October, December 1998 (6 months of 12) Jan, April, August, September, December 1999 (5 months of 12) February, April, May, September, October, November, December 2000 (7 months (!) of 12) March, April, October 2001 (3 months of 12, 2001 was a relatively benign year here) February, March, May, October, November, December 2002 (6 months of 12) The change here was right at the start of 2003, rather than in February. So clearly more wet months than dry, with 1998, 2000 and 2002 seeming to be notably wet years, 1999 and particularly 2001 much less so. The run of wet Aprils was an interesting anomaly for the month which tends to be the most reliable for dry weather though the whole year. January 2003 to July 2006 seemed another predominantly dry period though the calendar year 2004 was the exception, being another wet one. Earlier, we had other dry periods from around September 1988 to June 1992, and a wet period July 1992 to February 1995 - it really seemed to go from one to another during this period. Currently we do seem to be in another wet run, starting in August 2019 with April and May 2020 being notable exceptions - and July 2016 to July 2019 was another relatively benign period. What''s more the current one, more so than the millennial one, seems to be very dull as well as wet!

This was a very interesting month as others have said. A real SAD-buster as well, unlike the following month. Main memories I have are a continuation of the warm dry weather of September for the first few days. Then on the first Monday (which would make it the 6th) we had very late in the year thundery skies on a warm and humid day, with Ac cast and the like visible. There was no actual thunder, just rain, though. Then followed a wet zonal spell - I can't remember exactly for how long - but I do remember that wonderfully warm sunny Saturday on the 18th. I do recall Sunday 12th being brighter in a northerly too, as mentioned above. Initial forecasts then were for a further breakdown to unsettled conditions however as already said something very different happened. Another 'thundery' low approached late on Sun 19th, with more late-in-the-year thundery skies on another warm day, though rather than moving overhead and being followed by Atlantic air, it stuck out to the SW and strong easterlies started moving in, instead, preventing any Atlantic lows from reaching us. After a cold cloudy Monday 20th there then followed an incredible sunny spell with lowish daytime temps and very low night temps for the remainder of the month, and indeed into the first two days of November. Things of course deteriorated then, with all of Nov and most of Dec being pretty dire, as well as the first 18 days or so of Jan. Though the breakdown itself was synoptically somewhat interesting, a weak low moved up from Portugal on around November 3rd, rather resembling an Iberian heat low in the summer even though it wasn't remotely warm. Perhaps October 1997 could be considered the final month of the period of frequent fine, dry settled weather that started in March 1995 - as during the millennial period, beginning in Nov 1997, wet cyclonic months were pretty common. But that's probably something for another post.

Indeed, settling snow even in the far south on the Sunday morning - the only snow of that autumn-winter-spring season, in fact. Enough snow to produce completely covered ground though the (strong) sun came out from mid-morning so it thawed rapidly, though it was still cold for the time of year with single-figure temps. Just two days before we had a three-day fine spell with the temps approaching 20, before a very sudden change Friday into Saturday.... precisely why spring is (in the NW European climate) my favourite time of year. Spring 2008 had its issues (March was very windy and zonal - not at all springlike - and we had to wait until the 31st before the clocks went forward)... but this was an interesting spell and the rest of the spring was generally better than what had gone before.

One of those days when you're glad you live in the south.. though I am not so sure later in the week, when you'll be in the clear polar air while we're still stuck under the frontal system.

Current GFS 06Z a bit more interesting than Friday's runs. This week an absolute grotfest (until Wednesday, perhaps Thursday depending on how quickly the clearer N or NW winds get in) but - the final week of October has fairly high pressure in the south, so while very cloudy, I'm sure, at least it could be dry and maybe not too dull. With high temps for the time of year it might therefore not be too unpleasant. Then a northerly plunge at the turn of the month. Also the disturbance for next weekend looks like a slacker trough/low, so while it will no doubt give some rain, it might not be too unpleasant particularly if its centre slides south of here and we're on the northern edge. I often find that rain on the northern edge of a slack low isn't too bad, primarily because it's not too heavy and the cloud base isn't too low. The knife-edge at the moment is will it keep out of the way during Saturday daylight hours. Friday looks a relatively good day. There seems to be an infuriating S*'d's law that the weather is always much better on Friday than the following weekend!

Not sure how November 1st can be called springlike! Indian Summer-like at a pinch (I do remember in some parts the temps were truly extreme, but here it was just dull and misty) but in no way could that time of year be compared to spring. I always think of around Jan 21st as the earliest that you can start comparisons to spring: the days have to be drawing out (so that it's noticeably lighter than recent weeks) and there needs to be at least some signs of spring in nature (snowdrops, crocuses perhaps if they're early).

Though probably less settled winters compared to the 1980s is a factor, remembering that fog is associated with settled weather generally. Many 80s winters were relatively settled: only 1983/4 and 1987/8 stand out as both mild and wet overall. And even with those, I seem to recall Feb 1984 as pretty anticyclonic, the sort of month that would probably have thrown up quite a bit of fog.

Though probably more equable as well - certainly we seem to get less days above 20 in October compared to April, though less below 10 too. And of course (regarding the May comparison) 25C+ is very uncommon in October, but very common in May - perhaps it even happened this year, at the very end of the month. Another factor in spring's favour is what you're used to. 15C in March feels warm bordering on hot, 15C in September feels cold bordering on freezing! Sun strength, significantly greater in spring, exacerbates the warmer feeling of the spring season too; the first 21C day, normally in April, feels decidedly hot, and like full-on summer as it's accompanied by a strong sun. A 21C day in October while feeling balmy and pleasant would rarely feel hot. And of course there are no days in spring when the sun sets at just after 16:00 local time, as it does at the very end of November! Indeed at the end of May it might just make it past 21:00 local time here. Generally I think it's fair to say April is the more 'interesting' of the two: more chance of summer-like conditions, and also more chance of snow. More chance of prolonged settled sunny weather and less of dull, damp Atlantic clag too!

Of course, with that setup, the high will probably be 17c too Probably the low point of the whole week, away from high summer, the 'goodness' of the weather is IMO correlated strongly with the difference between max and min. Once that system is out of the way,things improve a little towards the end of the week it seems on the latest runs, though it does seem to be more zonality than we have seen for a long while out to the end of the run. Most 'bad' spells of weather this year have instead been due to slow moving lows that haven't moved anywhere fast.