Summer8906

This was followed by another fairly snowless - but bright and dry - winter in 1980/81 but one which still had one good snow cover on Feb 21st where I was in NW Sussex. It did thaw by afternoon, though. Of course things changed then, with every winter from 1981/2 to 1986/7 having good snow, with the exception of 1983/4 which down here was mostly a wet-and-windy-fest with a colder more anticyclonic Feb.

Yes, I'd class April last year as really good, thanks to the dry air, beautiful sunsets and around 10 days of constant strong sun from mid-month - but I don't mind coldish weather in early/mid Spring, as long as it's bright. May on the other hand.. the worst since 2007. People have talked about consistency of temps Feb-Mar-Apr in the past, and this does seem to be the case often, with some exceptions (e.g. 2016 mild Feb-coldish Mar-coldish Apr). So, if the rest of the winter is mild I suspect March will be mild also, as cold Marches seem to be preceded by cold Februaries and mild winters seem to be followed by mild Marches. In particular I suspect March will be mild and sunny if the rest of the winter is mild, which is something we haven't had for a while despite being common from 1990-2014. On the other hand, a cold April could still be possible following a mild March. If cold arrives in Feb then I suspect a cold early spring will follow, but May could still be warm and sunny (see 2018).

Not sure but the song was no.1 at Christmas 1979 which might suggest the video was made earlier, in say the autumn.

It's going to take something to drag January below average though. Unless the models change I suspect January will be clearly above average, but perhaps not by a silly amount *as long as* we don't get Tm stuck over us for weeks. (If we do, the thing to watch will surely be the dullest winter on record...)

There were, I think, as many as three short more settled spells. One around the 2nd weekend when there were north or northwesterly winds and it was bright and dry for a few days, but with temps around average rather than particularly cold. A second one occurred round the weekend of the 23rd/24th, perhaps only three days or so, and was dull and foggy. Finally another one, again short, occurred at the end of the month but was notably dull, and on the Saturday (30th) drizzly. I don't remember 1999 being exceptionally wet, but rather merely wet (like say 1995) but might be wrong. I think it had a lot of rPm air and relatively little Tm so not quite as much a dullfest as some others.

Interesting also how 2012 fell out despite it remaining mild throughout the first week. The difference between mild and silly mild, I guess...

Yes I'd agree there, if the upcoming 'average-ish' WNW-ly type would stay put for a few weeks that wouldn't be too bad, particularly if cold enough for some frosts, but sadly some models want to introduce Tm gloom again next week.

Was the CET for the first three months of 2016 neutral? March was cold but Jan and Feb were pretty solidly mild so I'd expect above-average overall. Certainly the start of 2006 seemed a *lot* colder than 2016!

I think the thing is that we don't necessarily expect a 1963, 1979, 1985 or 1987 winter every year. It's the frequency of extreme mild, damp and dull winters which is the problem. In recent years: 2013/4, 2015/6, 2019/20 and now (though perhaps February will offer something different) 2021/22. That's perhaps 4 years in the last 9 to be in the 'extreme Atlantic-driven' category. If we had one of these extreme Atlantic winters with the frequency that we get a proper cold winter like (as a recent example) 2009/10, I suspect few would complain. Remember that the supposed long-term mean max for southern England is 7C, so if it's above 10 most of the time with only short single-figure episodes (e.g. the next few days) that isn't exactly normal. In recent years I'd class 2017/8 as a classic 'normal' winter.

A bit of a no-show in the south unfortunately - along with 1983, 1988 and 1989 this stands out as one of the most Atlantic-driven Januaries of the 1980s. There was a pattern in the 1980s that the leap years (and 1989) produced the snowless winters - all the others had some snow. Main memories are lots of rain (and consequently, frequent cancellations of games at school), though I do remember one or two short-lived colder, bright periods - it wasn't quite the extreme mildfest seen in 1988 or 1989.

I think there's a reasonable chance in February to be fair. The two months round the winter solstice are the worst time.

It does seem very mild and sunny (as in properly sunny, rather than transient sunny intervals in a cloudy day) is an extremely rare combination for the south of England from around Nov 21-Jan 21 and I don't think it's ever happened in my memory in the second half of Dec. Examples I can think of from these two months are very rare, and if November is excluded, even rarer. OTOH I can think of these: November 2011, around the 23rd End of November 2014 7 Dec 2015 (one day of sun in an eternity of dull and drizzle!) Around Jan 10 1998, a brief break in the storminess Around Jan 5 1999, likewise

Sounds like the year from hell! (apart from May and perhaps October)

OK finally found this thread. My predictions are not scientific; they are simply based on the typical tendency for the weather in a given month in recent years (2007+), together with a highly unscientific 'if a given month hasn't been hot/cold/wet/dry for a while, it will this coming year'. So something like this. Anomalies are for central southern England and aren't to be taken too seriously! January: mild and wet for three weeks, drier, more anticyclonic and colder last 10 days. Some similarities to 1998, but first 20 days less mild and less stormy than 1998. +1.5C, 130% rain, 90% sun February: the driest winter month and often anticyclonic. Not sure whether it'll be mild or cold, so I'll go with cold start, mild and spring-like for two weeks in the middle of the month, before retrogression gives a wintry end. +0.5C, 50% rain, 120% sun March: a rather windy and changeable month, and below average. In contrast to recent Marches however, a wintry start with the most settled weather in the first 10 days of the month with hard frosts. Then a windy WNW-ly type for much of the month with average, or slightly below temps, more rain than usual for March, but also relatively bright due to winds in the NW quarter. At end of month, northerlies return again. -0.5C, 120% rain, 110% sun April: a typically mixed April. Northerly start with late snowfall even in the south. Settled and increasingly warm mid-month, but changeable cyclonic S-ly or SE-ly towards the end making it wetter but warm. +0.5C, 100% rain, 100% sun May: dominated by easterlies. Warm in the main, but often thundery. Some notable thundery outbreaks due to low pressure over France, but one or two occasional cold NE-ly spells. Cooler changeable Atlantic weather with slow moving slack lows in a westerly late in the month. +2.0C, 110% rain, 95% sun June: it's been a while since a settled June, and June has had the most tendency to be settled of the three summer months in recent years (2007+) so I think it's time for a nice June next year. Year's highest max of around 32C to occur this month. Initially cool and changeable but predominantly warm and sunny with occasional thundery outbreaks. +1.5C, 70% rain, 130% sun July: the most unsettled summer month this year. Rather cool and changeable with a series of slack lows moving WNW-ESE producing frequent thundery downpours. One rather brief hot spell, but with the max only 28C followed by a notably severe thundery breakdown. Change of type at very end of month following a northerly; high pressure builds in from the west. -1.0C, 130% rain, 80% sun August: after a long sequence of unsettled Augusts since 2017, I expect this one to be relatively good for recent years. Not a stunner, but perhaps comparable to 2013 or 2016, so often settled, persistently somewhat warmer than average, and only light rain with many dry days. No well-defined hot spell, as such, though. +1.0C, 80% rain, 100% sun September: following three consecutive years with a settled first three weeks of September and unsettled end, this one will be a bit different. Settled at very beginning (first 3 days) followed by a lengthy fairly unsettled spell with a sequence of Atlantic lows. Reasonable sunshine levels in the south though. A change around the equinox to produce a settled and sunny 'Indian summer' end to the month. 0.0C, 110% rain, 100% sun October: there has been quite a run of dull Octobers, so I'm expecting this one to be sunnier. A month of two halves: some very nice Indian summer weather in the first half before a change to colder, unsettled and often stormy for the last two weeks. However a dry Halloween, in contrast to recent years, under a ridge. +1.0C, 100% rain, 110% sun November: after a benign November this year, this one will be wet, stormy and mild. Foggy interlude in second half of month. +1.5C, 120% rain, 80% sun December: finally, a below average December - the first IIRC since 2010. Lengthy, two week spell of dry, frosty conditions before Christmas; but more unsettled and stormy at start and somewhat unsettled at end. -0.5C, 70% rain, 120% sun And.. given we're now seeing what early January will be like, I will go for January 2023 being a cold one for recent times, with a potent easterly at some point, a lying snow event for the south, and sunnier than average. (-1.5C, 60% rain, 110% sun)

Interesting that I have no memory of the warm first few days of May, though I have confirmed that this did indeed happen. Compared to other Mays of the 80s, it's remarkable how few memories of May 1986 I do have. In contrast, I have plenty of 1985 and 1987, including weather. Perhaps the weather was just uninteresting where I was (the south), with days and days on end of cloudy conditions with the odd bit of light rain from time to time; in a zonal pattern this is quite possible. I do remember dry and cloudy conditions for the late May holiday weekend which persisted into the half-term week, and that wet Saturday morning (likely to have been the 17th, I think) but that's it. I think August 1982 was synoptically similar to May 1986 (apart from a warm start) and for an August during my school days (i.e summer holidays) it's remarkable how few memories I have of it also, in sharp contrast to the surrounding Augusts of 1981 and 1983.

The one good thing about the GFS 00Z operational is at least it looks relatively dry in the south. Would be a good outlook for October or March.

I'm more hopeful (of either cold and wintry OR mild and dry, to make it clear) about Feb, because there are plenty of examples in recent history when there was a big change Jan to Feb, e.g. 1983, 1998, 2008, 2018. Granted two of these Februaries were mild, not cold, but they were very sunny and dry - so at least there's prior form for the rest of the winter being something other than endless dull and damp. Jan 20 is often a 'flip' date, it remains to be seen if this will be the case this year. My gut feeling is still for a dry and anticyclonic Feb, perhaps only because they have been in short supply (2019 excepted) in recent years. My 'gut feeling' prediction for Jan, based on current models plus the hope of a change around Jan 20, for central southern England is now 130% rainfall (almost all falling in the first three weeks), about 1.5C above average (2C+ above average for first three weeks and average for the last 10 days) and 90% sunshine (most in the last 10 days). No expert knowledge there though!

On another topic, is there a '2022 predictions' thread anywhere?

Cold zonality is arguably an oxymoron for the lowland south in the winter (though that is not the case from March to October, as we all remember only too well from the experience of last May!). You need a northerly or easterly component to the wind, or stagnant anticyclonic conditions, to even get the temperatures down to average, it seems.

Interesting the Met Office is suggesting 'more normal' conditions with 'low double figures' in the south next week. Can't help feeling this is not the best description to use. While technically accurate, it's disguising the fact that low double figures are typical for early November, not early January. A better description would be 'exceptionally mild weather will be replaced by slightly less mild, but still very mild, weather next week'. Double figures in the south, away from the southwest, is still firmly in the 'very mild' category in January. When max temps drop to around 6-8C, we can only then start talking about 'normal' conditions for the time of year. Maybe some hints of a 1998 rerun with a hint of a change to more settled weather late in the month on the Met Office forecast. After the damp and gloom of much of this winter, I suspect many would be happy with a February 1998 rerun, though I still have concerns about the effect of too much mild weather on the seasonality of spring flowering. The one thing not particularly prominent on the runs though (unlike 1998) is any really stormy weather, away from the north and northwest at least.

I remember the late snow in April though didn't settle down in the south where I was. March had ended with a notably windy spell for the past 10 days or so and this progressively got colder, before winds switched to the NE on the 1st and there followed a few days with bright weather and thundery snow showers on a NE wind. The whole of April was cold apparently, though only the first few days really stand out. I seem to remember the second week had a lot of dry, cloudy weather with extensive Sc sheets, and presumably it was still cold though can't remember clearly. There's then a blank in my memory (possibly related to returning to school, while the above corresponded to the Easter holidays) before a late April warm spell that I recall as being the first vaguely warm weather of the year. It reached around 16-18C I think, so not spectacular for late April, but warmer than anything up to that point. I also remember, while it was mostly bright, the warmth set off isolated showers. Wind was from the east. May is also something of a blank that year (unusual for May) but what memories I do have are largely dry and cloudy, with a wet Saturday morning round midmonth. Going back to the records, it looks like it was unusually zonal for May - but I don't remember it being particularly wet.

I guess we have still some time to go to beat the 1996/7 - 2007/8 12-year run of near-snowless winters in the south, but it certainly seems the case that snow is much less common nowadays than up to and including 1987. While there was a run of mild winters in the early-mid 70s apparently (1971/2 to 1975/6), some of them extremely so, the periods both before and after that spell had frequent snow. These days even a bog-standard 80s-style winter day of 7C max 0C min is a rarity. Never mind snow, frost is fast becoming a novelty. Correct me if I am wrong, but I think southern England has just had one day of widespread ground frost since the 11th. (By contrast, the period from Nov 22-Dec 10 was like a throwback to old-style traditional late autumn/early winter conditions, though that was very much an atypical interlude). To get so little of something as bog-standard as frost in mid and late December, during the longest nights of the year, is quite something.

Wondering whether 2021 will be one of the dullest years on record for central southern England? (more so than the southwest perhaps) Certainly I get the impression that the majority of months have been varying degrees of duller than average, with only April sunnier than average, and September about average. The autumn while calm and benign seemed to be generally cloudy in Oct and Nov, and the summer - apart from the first half of June and one week in July - seemed to be very cloudy indeed. May was of course spectacularly unseasonable and cloudy apart from the last few days. December has been pretty dull apart from the first 10 days - and the remaining days of the month look very dull indeed - and I don't think Jan, Feb or Mar were much better. Would be interesting to see the annual stats when they come out. In fact, generally, it seems to have been unusually cloudy for an extended period from around the autumn equinox 2019, with the exception of the spectacularly sunny April and May 2020, and September 2020. Strange how April and September seem to be breaking the general pattern of cloudiness so often.

If January 2022 is mild and wet, incidentally, it will complete a 10-year unbroken alternation between mild and wet Januaries, and more seasonable Januaries. Granted that January 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2021 were not dramatically cold - 2017 and 2019 were about average, and 2015 was slightly milder than average - but they did all produce, for a significant part of the month, something other than a near-continuous onslaught from the Atlantic and all had some kind of cold spell. January 2013 was of course, the only snowy January (besides 2010) since 1987 for much of the south. 2012 was also mild overall, but dry and anticyclonic most of the time, so isn't included in this sequence.

Yes, 15C in Jan feels like one of those rare days, which occasionally happen, where we have 23C, dull and rain in July or August. Extremely humid and sticky.