Eagle

Hi, it's my first message here but i have a good experience in seasonal forecast (i establish that since 2018) and teleconnections, and look here regularly. My question is the following : the QBO are in a descending phase but the temperature do not follow that for the first time in records (no coupling between high and low stratosphere this one, and intensity of negative temperature anomaly are low). The temperature are warm in high and low strat when is should be colder. The following figure showing that : We observe a total deconnection between high and low stratosphere and between zonal wind & temperature (the temperature usually following zonal wind, but this drastically opposed this one, looks like the reverse of 2016-2017 cold anomalies). Normally, we observe a cold anomalies in high stratosphere, but not this time (the cold anomaly have suddently spread in early 2021). I think this could hide a +QBO in a -QBO because warm anomaly are spreading and negative temperature anomaly intensity are low. What do you think, @SqueakheartLW, @jules216, @sebastiaan1973 and other ? Is a +QBO phase hidden in the -QBO is possible ? Or the temperature do not influence the atmospheric response to the zonal wind (no interference ?), thanks you for your response !