[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

This particular ECM run might not be great, but it was quite late to the party for the cold spell at the beginning of the month. 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

40 minutes ago, legritter said:

Yes lets hope , fantastic sharts appearing at last

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

All this talk about 850 temps and not being cold enough to snow. I'm currently watching it snow just outside Weymouth. Definitely only expected rain, it's not even particularly cold today.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Remember when sunspots were blamed for a cold spell breaking down. Well ........

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

9 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

GEFS smelling some extreme cold runs as well now . Think we may have lift off .

There's a fair amount of pretty mild runs in there too. 

Without counting them, looks about a 50:50 split

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

13 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I have photographs of deep lying snow in Somerset on March 18 2018. It is quite simply not true that snow cannot lie in mid March. Ideally, however, the weather stays cloudy obviously….

There was loads of snow on the Isle of Portland too, drifts around 4ft in places.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

The cold definitely stood up against the low that only a week ago was threatening to go up into the midlands. Barely any change in conditions in Weymouth and Portland, and only a tiny flurry of snow, in what was predicted to be mostly rain, and a lot of it. Maybe the models have underestimated the strength of the block. It'll be interesting to see how this mild blip/spell keeps getting modelled over the upcoming days 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

That bullseye low may be a little overdone but perhaps with that extra injection of cold uppers from the NE giving it that extra kick. Heaven forbid another repeat of 2018 when we really whipped up a storm called Emma largely due too all that frigid air moving across the Atlantic. This could play out in a similar way if all goes accordingly..I think it was the SW of Ireland that took the brunt back then..who knows where if we end up in a similar position.. a very interesting development though which needs to be kept an eye on over the next few days. It could remain South of us...but a little further North and we would need the farmers plough to get out.

Dorset took a pasting from that. Big snow drifts followed by freezing rain. 

I couldn't get off of Portland for two days due to the ice.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

New to posting here, been lurking and learning for a few winters.

 

The potential cold is all looking very promising, is it safe to talk about it to the wife yet? 

 

 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

17 minutes ago, That ECM said:

South of the m27 event.

 

 

I'll take that