BremX

Gfs with the bullseye lows again, so this will change a lot in the coming runs

I always feel that these days, weather apps and sites never show true potential temps or precip for fear of scaring the public or just being wrong.

The models over the last week, show that they still have no idea on the effects of the SSW(s). We are on the model roller coaster. Ups and downs galore, but at the end will we feel its been worth it. Each model is throwing out so many options that even the ensembles are struggling to find a real trend. We know there are no guarantees of cold but we have to try and enjoy the ride. Personally, with my very limited knowledge, it feels like there is a march nirvana close. Yes it would have been nice to be in this position this time last month, but non the less there are so many options on the table. The next 3 to 4 days models should hopefully start getting more of a grip on the outputs and should possibly see more cross model agreements.

Gfs 6z rolling out now, let's see what it holds

6z delayed by 45 mins or so

Latest GFS not looking the best. Pushing back any cold further into FI. But I still don't believe the models are picking up any disruption from the SSW yet. I am sure there will be a lot of topsy-turvy charts being thrown out in the next couple of weeks. Means and ensembles will definitely show better trends than the det models, but the det models are easier to view so it would be nice if they didn't flip flop so much . These are the chases that make winter model watching fun (if you like cold)

As much as the GFS runs are generally unreliable, I have to say I've never been a big fan of the ECM or UKMO outputs. Perhaps because they always feel like they don't wanna show me the weather I like or maybe other reasons haha it would be nice if all the models showed similar outputs, but then where would be the fun of the cherry picked chase. At least there is a chase at the moment.

This is not directed at anyone in particular and is only an observation, but it does seem like there is a need for people in here to want to say "I told you so" when we do not get cold or when and if this SSW does not deliver any cold. We all know that the chase for sustained cold and proper winter weather in this country is, these days generally futile however it is fun to chase it non the less. It is also fun to look at the potential outputs of the models and what they could throw out, no matter how implausible. As I see it, the charts have a 50/50 chance of verifying. They either will or they won't. No one here believes an SSW will definitely bring us cold weather, but we still believe (snowfalls coming home) Everyone is entitled to their opinions and these forums are here for people to learn. I just feel too many people either take others comments too seriously or feel that people are attacking their opinions. Let us all just enjoy the ride. Personally I believe that looking at the charts, we have the best chance we have had for a while for the SSW to deliver something colder for us, though any BFTE will most likely stay illusive.

Just seen this and wondering what this would mean for our potential weather.

Next GFS run it will most likely flip back, I seem to remember it flip flopping like that before. But either way it's been a fun chase, right or wrong, likely or unlikely. There is no trophy on here for the most "right" prediction. We are here to enjoy watching these models and the potential outcomes they can give us!

Looking at the runs this morning, even if the GFS is totally wrong, it gives us a glimmer of hope and something to chase. Yes it would be nice if all the runs were in more agreement, but I always remember in weather models, they can't all be right, but they can all be wrong. Let's just pray to the winter gods we see some kind of wintery weather from this.

This mornings GFS run looks poor. Even more all over the place than it has been, though its nice it's given us some chasing in fantasy island. Personally where I am, I'd just like some actual weather of some sort, it's been pretty boring so far this winter.

Looking at the outputs with my uneducated eyes, I still feel there will be some big swings both ways with the models in the next week or so. It's so easy to give up, but all the models have struggled with the longer term outputs this year. We are here for the chase, Yes it's nice when we get what we want, but there is no chase without bad outputs as well as good.

As much as the gfs output has left a lot to be desired lately, it's still been frustrating to see it stick to this high pressure over us in the extended range. Where are the crazy runs that give us some hope to chase? Other than that, I'd like to hope to signs are pointing to an SSW, even if it does nothing for us, it gives us the chase!

So frustrating, whenever I see these snow charts posted, I seem to be in an area that never shows snow

Let's see what the gfs pub run throws out, at the minute it can't be much worse than the other runs, though it might show a 40 degree heatwave....

It is always frustrating that the GFS is the main go to for a lot of weather forecasting. It has been awful since the update, which I think showed a lot when it was running parallel with the old suite. They need to have a long look at that model. Though as soon as its right once, they will say there's nothing wrong with it! I would say, looking at the charts that we have a chance of a colder theme, though knowing our winter luck, this horrible warmth will continue. Fingers crossed for the next few days of runs further picking up on cold signals!

Saw this and just gave me a glimmer of hope

Long time reader, first time poster. Love reading the comments here and trying to learn from it all. I have been seeing a few comments about a potential warming event. Obviously I know this doesn't always lead to cold weather for us, but I saw this chart and wondered what potential this may have for us should it verify. I enjoy the chase for Cold, it's just so frustrating in this country that we always seem to miss out at the last minute, when the potential has been there for a while.