CLH

Max feel like forecasts well out for today.

Update on my race as a barometer of where we are. I've never seen Pembrey like it. We crossed about 3 rivers which are not rivers, just hollows. Knee deep. Deep mud in places. Just awful. And did 4km (twice) along the beach into 50mph crosswinds (awful). We always get caught up in anecdote over statistics. But I think all our anecdotes this year are spot in. Just the worst.

10th Anniversary of (cyling) Battle on the Beach at Pembrey tomorrow. I've done probably 7 of them? Obviously none during Covid. I can recall one event being damp, but most of them being glorious and, remarkably, with an easterly (we travel NE up the beach then into the singletrack) and repeat. And, being on the beach/forest, it's always dry. For tomorrow's race the route has changed because the forest is largely flooded, which is pretty unprecedented even in the depths of winter. And it looks like we face a 49mph gusting SW'erly. Not in your face but enough to really make it a bit grindy!

I'll go with yellow warning, low impact.

It feels highly unlikely

I think I saw flurries last winter. This one? Nada.

The M4 is, surely, some sort of mystic ley line......

Had expected more moderation in the wind by this point of the day, but, still pretty gusty. Tomorrow's wind kicks off mid morning and carries on until, mostly, breakfast time Wednesday.

The hype which desensitises people isn't because of storm naming or warning, it's because of how things are reported. When you have the likes of the Express with their exact date a wall of snow will bring armageddon, it's hardly surprising people don't take storm warnings seriously.

An observation that the fire fighting effort for the Bridgend fire might have been very different in Wednesday/Thursday evening's temps.

Hoping that this one doesn't turn out like Darwin (2014)

Looking rough and, as above, the spread and duration are very worrying. Earlier in the week it looked like it wouldn't coincide with high (though neap) tides. Now looks like it does, at least on the Monday morning

Sunday looks like a sleep in a different room to where the wind is....

I am hoping you're referring to a wall of snow and not the headline!

We've seen the EXACT DATE that a WALL OF SNOW will BURY the UK and cause CHAOS But, this is a new one

Looks like the weekend/next week storms are tracking North at the moment. Still very windy though, and sustained for longer

Fairly good cross model support at the moment. Almost certain to become Storm Isha

Tomorrow-Friday does appear to be much colder than the first two days of this week, today I thought felt very mild! Hints in the model thread that the next snow chase is about to begin

Blimey, a few days of watching a) model upgrades/downgrades an b) track. We saw the last one track south constantly and hit Jersey. I wonder do windstorms tend to track one direction more than another. My gut tells me they tend to centre in the end rather than constantly track south, unlike snow.........

To add too, I went for lunchtime walk last Monday and was comfortable in a down insulated jacket. I went for a lunchtime walk today and was comfortable in a fleecy shacket (shirt jacket thing). Nowhere near as cold feeling

Those weekend storms.....

Not sure about next week, but some discussion of this weekend https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5012572

Going to take a big shift to see snow mid week, can't really see it happening.

Later today is when the cold(er) air moves in. But it's not awfully different from last Monday/Tuesday.

yeah. Not expecting it but….you never know. South of the M4 may play a blinder