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Hammy79

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Hammy79
    Grammar

    7 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

    Not the old hats that watch the models. The 1st to pick out 40c a couple of years ago weeks out. Its good at picking up trends.

    And im sure if you gave me 100 darts i'd hit the bullseye at least once..

    Anyway the latest GEFS just show the uncertainty- granted theres an upwards trend. - but look at the spread

    Roughly Birmingham for reference

    spread.png

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Mutley57 said:

    Totally correct not a very well thought out comment, it’s weather, does it matter…. It will be what it will be!!!  Just enjoy the journey it sends us on!!!!!

    This comment wont be here for long- but agreed, it doesn't matter. Yes it would of been great to have loads of snow, I love it! What we are seeing is a cold spell (not snap- its certainly felt cold since Monday) and from an IMBY I hope to see a Cheshire streamer develop to give us a least a covering. If it doesn't then its okay- im sure there will be other chances. 

    In honesty I very nearly got caught up in all the hype again for snow potential and nearly brought some sledges in bulk to flog 🤣 Glad i didn't now but thats UK weather, we are a small island and I accepted this from a younger age that it takes a lot for us to get a decent snow event.

    Meteorology has always been a passion from young and due to typical factors of life meant that I couldn't pursue it in further education and dropped the whole idea. That was 12 years ago and only this winter I have come back to the community properly. I take my hat off to the member's that signaled this period of cold weather as far out as they did and if anything has give me a resurgence to learn again to be a little help in the future. 

    Also in a weird way (as stressful as it is) its helped my mental well being massively. 

    This community is unique- and I wouldn't change it for anything (apart from a foot of snow in my back garden) 

    Joking aside I think we have much more opportunity this season and its going to be exciting viewing. 

    I get disappointment most weekends from watching my football club- but as always,  ill keep on to the end of the road.

    Cheers everyone

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Garthvader said:

    God almighty pass me the rope!

    Been refraining for commenting on all the moans but this tips me over- pass me the rope? really? A very flippant and not thought out comment at all.

    Its weather- it will do what it wants to do, we are literally seeing cold from Sunday evening pour into the UK for at least a week and nothing is set in stone with regard to snow. 

    Granted we are not seeing the charts we were with a foot of snow in places but in reality that was  a scenario in the envelope 7/10 days away.  A bit like what we are seeing now with the signaled breakdown- its all scenarios. 

     

    Sorry for derailing the thread even more but comments like this get to me, especially with what is going on in the world. 

    Its. Just. Weather. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, blizzard81 said:

    So many questions aren't there? How could there be such a complete 180 degree flip? Especially as it goes against those background signals. 

    Id like to think that the computers that churn these charts out are struggling and going with the 'norm'

    Excuse my lack of knowledge here, but im interested in knowing how the EC derives its data as- can anyone shed some light?

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Ens @ 144 - much better uppers with -4 as far as south as Exeter compared to roughly Birmingham on the 0z. 

    Yes the low placement that could of given a lot of us snow is trending south which im slight gutted by but it does allow colder air dig its heels in a bit more ready for the next Atlantic attack. 

    Looking forward to this coming into view of the High Res Models which handle disturbances a lot better (granted if there are any) 

     

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    What surprises me is the Met Office more or less went for the low pressure to be further North. Its almost certain now that won't happen 

    They can only go off the data that they have in front of them at the time and hence why its highlighted as a risk rather than a dead cert. 

    The GFS 6Z takes the system just south of the UK and wouldn't take much to bring that Risk back into play. 

    Anyway,

    Much better from the 6z for longevity- lets see where it takes us further on 

     

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

    As old as i am Nick i can't help feeling this anticipation looking at the prospects of a long cold spell. ie.2 weeks plus.They are not common these days but given all the latest information within the excellent posts by our telecon experts and the longer term charts showing a blocked February then it's hard not to be optimistic for the rest of Winter.

    Mmmm  just a thought 1947 didn't really get going until later in January,surely we won't get anything that severe now can we? 

     

    Model discussion only please 🤣👀

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Hammy79
    Grammar

    Well nice and positive OP run and ensembles for the GFS/GEFS

    Also good to see the signal for scandi heights in a few members..

    Fully expecting a few wobbles over the next few days  from ops and ensembles as they toy with the new signal and work out how they get there! 

    Best chart viewing in what seems like ages! 

    P.s thanks to the experienced posters in here, your info and explanations are help me learn loads 😀

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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    ECM mean is great- op is not an outlier either, just nearer the bottom of the spread. 
     

    Still think the low, Potential snow maker, will cause a headache for a few days and until we know it’s true track there’s no point being disappointed.

    Haven’t posted here much at all but have been watching the forum for over 10 years and memory serves that these pesky Lows tend to track south once into the reliable time frame. 
     

    Im no expert so Its merely just personal opinion! Nether the less is sure makes the day go quicker waiting for each run! 
     

     

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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    We appear to have lost them mean 850's value..-4 for my region now..before it was -8

    Happy to be proven wrong but to me it’s just the individual ensembles working out where the low pressure to our south will go- some bringing in a lot warmer uppers compared to what we have been seeing which will naturally raise the mean.

     

    High risk, high reward- an interesting watch that’s for sure! 

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