Hammy79

And im sure if you gave me 100 darts i'd hit the bullseye at least once.. Anyway the latest GEFS just show the uncertainty- granted theres an upwards trend. - but look at the spread Roughly Birmingham for reference

This comment wont be here for long- but agreed, it doesn't matter. Yes it would of been great to have loads of snow, I love it! What we are seeing is a cold spell (not snap- its certainly felt cold since Monday) and from an IMBY I hope to see a Cheshire streamer develop to give us a least a covering. If it doesn't then its okay- im sure there will be other chances. In honesty I very nearly got caught up in all the hype again for snow potential and nearly brought some sledges in bulk to flog Glad i didn't now but thats UK weather, we are a small island and I accepted this from a younger age that it takes a lot for us to get a decent snow event. Meteorology has always been a passion from young and due to typical factors of life meant that I couldn't pursue it in further education and dropped the whole idea. That was 12 years ago and only this winter I have come back to the community properly. I take my hat off to the member's that signaled this period of cold weather as far out as they did and if anything has give me a resurgence to learn again to be a little help in the future. Also in a weird way (as stressful as it is) its helped my mental well being massively. This community is unique- and I wouldn't change it for anything (apart from a foot of snow in my back garden) Joking aside I think we have much more opportunity this season and its going to be exciting viewing. I get disappointment most weekends from watching my football club- but as always, ill keep on to the end of the road. Cheers everyone

Okay, thought about it- and even if they are coming from the same angle as me, they have phrased it completely wrong.

Thanks matt- appreciated

Been refraining for commenting on all the moans but this tips me over- pass me the rope? really? A very flippant and not thought out comment at all. Its weather- it will do what it wants to do, we are literally seeing cold from Sunday evening pour into the UK for at least a week and nothing is set in stone with regard to snow. Granted we are not seeing the charts we were with a foot of snow in places but in reality that was a scenario in the envelope 7/10 days away. A bit like what we are seeing now with the signaled breakdown- its all scenarios. Sorry for derailing the thread even more but comments like this get to me, especially with what is going on in the world. Its. Just. Weather.

Can some point me in the direction of the learning thread please? Would of asked in the model thread but don't want to derail it anymore than it already is! TIA

Id like to think that the computers that churn these charts out are struggling and going with the 'norm' Excuse my lack of knowledge here, but im interested in knowing how the EC derives its data as- can anyone shed some light?

Is it possible its working on the data the the ops are running with at the moment( where we are seeing a flip back to milder conditions) and not seeing the background signals?

Ens @ 144 - much better uppers with -4 as far as south as Exeter compared to roughly Birmingham on the 0z. Yes the low placement that could of given a lot of us snow is trending south which im slight gutted by but it does allow colder air dig its heels in a bit more ready for the next Atlantic attack. Looking forward to this coming into view of the High Res Models which handle disturbances a lot better (granted if there are any)

Yes hope to see some upgrades and the tail wags the dog!

FWIW the GEFS mean brings the -8 isotherm further south at day 4 - certainly going to feel cold!

They can only go off the data that they have in front of them at the time and hence why its highlighted as a risk rather than a dead cert. The GFS 6Z takes the system just south of the UK and wouldn't take much to bring that Risk back into play. Anyway, Much better from the 6z for longevity- lets see where it takes us further on

Was a poor attempt at a joke on my behalf.. BRING ON THE 1947 REPEAT! !

Model discussion only please

Well nice and positive OP run and ensembles for the GFS/GEFS Also good to see the signal for scandi heights in a few members.. Fully expecting a few wobbles over the next few days from ops and ensembles as they toy with the new signal and work out how they get there! Best chart viewing in what seems like ages! P.s thanks to the experienced posters in here, your info and explanations are help me learn loads