smich
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Posts posted by smich
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Much lighter snow now in Kentish Town but the damage has been done. Highgate gridlocked
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15 minutes ago, smichling said:
The system looks to have made it to London. Just. Thought It would turn away just short leaving us with not as much. However just started snowing in north London and hopefully should continue for a while.
Good news son!
We were only ever going to be on the fringes of this event though, we will have to be satisfied with a few cms at best this time.
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Quite heavy snow in Kentish Town, settling quite readily
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Morning all, from a bright and brisk Kentish Town. My feeling is that the shower activity will build as we go through the week; I must say the fax charts look very complicated (ie interesting) for the arrival of the low in a couple of days. A stalled front usually means someone hits the jackpot....
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Seeing the jet buckled to this extent - very unusual!
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18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
It’s clear that something is afoot by the notable increase in IP/HR (informed posts per hour)
Indeed! Possibly the most reliable forecasting tool we have at our disposal.
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2 hours ago, tight isobar said:
'Neatly difined ridging'...via 6z..
The morphing of waa-eastern usa-greenland coming into reliable time frame.
With continue of vortex pressure punch!...
Early doors but an encouraging chart with the 2 disparate vortices over Canada and Siberia.
Are there any other forecast models that are particularly useful with regards to the PV?
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Looking very impressive for a Cat 1 now...
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Most likely to be trochoidal motions, usually caused by uneven distribution of convection within the storm and/or changes in structure. NHC will use up to 24 hours motion for forecasting.
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Hi all,
Not sure where to post this, mods feel free to move as you see fit.
My son has always been mad keen on his meteorology, especially the severe stuff as you might expect. He's noticed something. It would appear that if the Pacific has a quiet hurricane season, then the Atlantic will have a busy one and vice-versa. He's been back through the last 30 years and with just a couple of exceptions this theory holds true, see the graph attached:
Is he on to something here? Has the correlation already been spotted and studied? It seems to be glaringly obvious I must say.
And what would we conclude? Is there a finite amount of energy available during any given hurricane season? And what implications does this have with regards to the "drivers" (eg. Solar energy, SST's, moisture content)?
He's done a good job researching this and I'm inclined to suggest he looks into it further.
Any thoughts?
Steve M
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Wunderground currentlyshows Lake Havasu City at 56C!! Must be a mistake??
Steve M
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23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
Looks bloody awful to me SB...How many deaths would you like to see?
None, obviously. SB is pointing out - quite rightly - how impressive the system looks.
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Hi all,I'm wondering....why such a strong storm - for that matter why such so many strong storms this season in the Western Pacific?
I haven't seen anything in the SST anomaly charts to indicate lots of warm water for "fuel".
Steve M
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Yes I saw Patrick do a live show about 8 years ago - despite his age he was very with it back then. I remember someone asked about the Apollo moon missions being a hoax and he really steamed into them!!!
Steve M
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Up to 2cms in barnet. Its heavy precip, but very small flakes, cover building slowly...
Loving looking out onto the street, road now covered...very quiet...just saw a dominos pizza moped zoom past! Suicidal lol!
Trains, buses, cars all stop, but not dominos pizza! Loll
Everyone, go outside now and watch, listen. It's beautiful!
Steve Mich
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First flakes of light snow here in Barnet!
I must say, this front looks enormous on the radar now. As TEITS says, back edge still over the Irish Sea!
Likely to shrink as it weakens, but nevertheless a prolonged event in the offing for this region.
Steve Mich
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Thanks to all who replied re. my question on GFS operational vs ensembles. I'm still curious - no matter what the "tweak" to each ensemble member, they nearly all diverge away from the operational at a certain point?
Also, if that point is at the resolution change, fine. But why hasn't this happened with such consistency before? It's wierd. I can only assume it's to do with a major pattern change, with a lack of actual data coming from the crucial area ie the Arctic.
Thanks again
Steve Mich
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Can anyone explain why the GFS operational continues to have so little support from it's ensembles? It's been going on for weeks now and happens almost every run, 0z, 6z, 12z pub run - the lot.
It's really very curious. I'm not saying it's an outright outlier, it just seems to be a very mild run at some stage time after time.
Any thoughts anyone?
Steve Mich
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Merry Xmas to everyone at Netweather! Keep up the good work! And let's make a wish for 2011 - that the jet stays SOUTH!
All the best
Steve M and family
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As always, GP has based his forecast on sound meteorological logic, given the current scenario. I think some of those who regard the forecast as "punt" might do well to look through the forecasters track record...
The Nina signal is very strong, and ridging in the Pacific and Atlantic looks a good call. There have been many focuses of attention over recent winters here at NW, with Sea Surface Temps, Stratospheric warming events and Oscillations all considered as primary drivers of our winter weather. I personally look to the NAO/AO as my guide. There is an element of chicken and egg to it of course, but it's mainly because the "consequences" are more short term that I favour those teleconnections.
Top forecast, hope it comes off, because it means lots of cold sunny weather!
Steve M
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A magnificent hurricane. And as others have mentioned, not likely to cause too much damage (although if I were Bermudan, I'd be keeping a close eye on Igor's track...
Am I right in thinking there hasn't been an Eyewall Replacement Cycle yet? The eye has looked very stable - to my eyes - all day.
smich
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I agree. Is there not any information on what has caused this rain?
Steve M
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And I'm worried for all the people in Haiti living in temporary camps after the Earthquake.
A direct hit will make all of them homeless again.
Steve M
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With impeccable timing, my son (8 yrs) and I decided to watch 2012 on DVD testerday evening!!
When Yellowstone blows, he turned to me with that look of slack jawed wonder....
lol
Steve M
We were only ever going to be on the fringes of this event though, we will have to be satisfied with a few cms at best this time.
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
in Regional
Posted
Not quite! coyg
In other news, the front looks an impressive size on radar, we need it to drag it's heels as it crosses the country and we could be in with an entertaining evening...