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smich

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Posts posted by smich

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    A polar low is different from a normal low formed north of the polar front. A polar low is formed generally in an unstable northerly flow when the upper atmosphere is generally below -35, these aren't well forecast further out than 24hrs. Interestingly they're also called Arctic Hurricanes as they often have an eye in the centre!

    The low the models are currently forecasting actually forms near Iceland, the deeper this becomes the more likely we'll see milder air sucked into its circulation and a larger milder sector.

    "Arctic Hurricanes" ?! You scaremongerer you! LOL You should know better!

    Polar Lows are associated with a distinct "hook" or "comma" feature but not an eye surely!!!!

    And of course Polar Lows are usually much smaller features than the depression puzzling the models currently.

    smich

    Model Chat And Moods

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I remember back in the days....about 1998 to the 2004 event....here in Barnet, North London....

    ....winter after winter......no netweather.........

    no snow.

    not a flake.

    nada.

    zilcho.

    Mild mild mild.

    "even larger teapot".

    My sled has seen more action in the last 18 months than in the entire decade before!

    Some folks need a reality check. What was. What is. And what might be!

    chin up peeps!

    Steve M

    And that's another thing!

    We've had sleet/wet snow falling virtually all day today, but because it didn't cause a gridlock situation across the capital, it doesn't seem to count!

    blink.gif

    Steve M

    Model Output Discussion:

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    this was my question, which nobody answered (which i hope is still model - related). I think given steve m's post, that maybe the 18z doesn't have the same level of data input as the other runs? which would explain why it would verify less accurately than the others.

    my question was that, surely, it must have more up-to-date information as it is, by default, more up to date?

    i hope this isn't a tiresome post and i'm sure the more senior posters have been through this many times but as a "model maker" myself (in the past) i'd like an explanation or maybe a link to somewhere i can read about it?

    Hi mate, yes this one has done the rounds a few times!

    My take is this. Comparing 12z with 18z say, will of course reveal slight differences. These will appear minutely in the short range. But don't forget, there is different data input into the different runs. When the butterfly effect kicks in, the result down the line is a larger diffrence!

    When you compare like for like ie. todays 12z with yesterdays 12z, the difference isnt the data feed plus the 24 hrs. It's just the 24 hrs! Thus a trend can be detected!

    That's why, when Ian says it's "old hat" without stating why, I think he's talking bewlox.

    smich

    Model Output Discussion:

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The lull before the storm! lol

    We'll probably get a slight downgrade from the heady heights of yesterday's 12Z, but as we are nearer the event itself I wouldn't expect too much in the way extreme flip flops.

    As I mentioned in the Mood thread, I'm looking more keenly at the fax charts at this sort of range.

    smich

    Model Chat And Moods

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    As is usual, particularly with these kinds of set ups, there will be both upgrades and downgrades during the run in. Whenever the models do a major flip, there is nearly always some correction the other way in the following few runs.

    As we get nearer the event itself these oscillations, if you like, will become less pronounced. But you will never get perfect continuity, not even within one model let alone across several!

    Up to T72, I tend to use the Fax charts, because they have that little bit of human input and show smaller features more. I look for trends between T72 and T144 - especially on the ECM which doesn't even start til T72. FI is just a laugh really, although occaisionally (a couple of times this winter) GFS has showed a cold spell way way out which has verified to some degree.

    Apologies for my rant last night, the kneejerkers really got to me for some reason!

    Steve M

    Model Output Discussion:

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    What is it with people here? As others have said, "It's one Run", the weather will happen whether you are navel gazing or not.

    OK, in some respects the 18Z isn't as good, but we're still too far away to see what will really happen. Every time we think FI has moved out, it jumps back at us.

    Next week, even on these charts will have 3-5 days of very cold weather

    Enjoy what is happening and don't take it personally

    Good post, but it will fall on deaf ears I'm afraid.

    Fax charts looking fantastic - good easterly flow and a little front or two crossing the North Sea....

    smich

    Model Chat And Moods

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I'm gonna vent my spleen.

    No way would this post survive on the Model thread.

    Gobsmacked. There are some idiots masquerading as model watchers freaking out at one single run that has just a few not quite as cold frames in it. There are downright flamers too - as I type, one predictable culprit has ventured that there "will be no cold spell". Atall?

    The faxes are coming out and show us a cold spell coming. These are dismissed/ignored presumably because the 18z GFS is a much more recent and therefore informed solution...

    Bewlox.

    I'm fed up. What's it like on TWO? Are they more sensible over there?!

    Rant over

    smich

    Model Chat And Moods

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I second the motion to ban ~> wallbash.gif

    It's annoying habitual overuse by one particular member, whilst we had the 'SE Cold Discussion' threads, had me googling for local gun-hire shops. Rest assured, my AK-47 wouldn't miss him like the snow clouds were off the NE Kent coastline.

    With any luck, Darwin will be right, and evolution will phase him out.

    I don't mind so much for ~> shok.gif which usually means a nice pretty picture to click on. However, if it's used mid-waffle, then I just glaze over it and look for some more interesting hyperlinks laugh.gif

    Oh, and I like both of these ones: laugh.gif & wub.gif. Don't ever get rid of those or I'd be lost!

    Thanks for supporting the motion Snowballz!. I guess it's just a symptom of the frustration of people when the model retreat away from a cold solution.

    You try and tell them not to get upset/excited over individual runs, but they never listen. Sometimes you feel like you're banging your head against a brick wall....

    huh.gif

    Model Output Discussion:

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I often don't bother looking at it. I will look at the ECM and UKMO first and then the GEM and afterwards, sometimes, see how the GFS compares to them all.

    The only pattern that it is reliable with is tramline zonal south westerlies (as in corridor of death south westerlies not this particular pattern) Even then, it doesn't know when to stop and generates low bomb after low bomb and only generally comes to a screeching halt after the euros have picked up a pattern change about 2 days before!biggrin.gif

    Of course I am being a bit tongue in cheek and I will check the other data and stratosphere etc - but I am not a GFS fan I'm afraid!

    This provokes an interesting question: Does anyone out there ignore the GFS? I admit it's the first one I turn to.........because it's there! 4 runs, ensembles, etc etc

    But if you just checked the UKMO and ECM I wonder what your verification scores might be?

    smich

    Model Chat And Moods

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hello, I'm a bit drunk (so excuse me) and I want 2 emoticons banned from this forum please, because they is winding me up!

    This one: wallbash.gif (especially) because it is in every fewkin downgrade gane over type post.

    And this one: shok.gif because it is in every Armageddon T384 FI chart post.

    I thank you

    smich

    Model Output Discussion:

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    What a day! You couldn't make it up could you?!

    I was so puzzled yesterday and posted as such. All the signals were there -AO, -NAO, SSW, MJO, all favourable, but the models were showing mild? Many thanks to Stephen Prudence for the reply about "West based" -NAO.

    And that is still a big risk IMO, the great charts we're likely to see in the next day or so will evolve further. We need to keep a keen eye out for the trends.

    Great debate earlier about the ensembles; having seen the GFS mean doggedly stick to -5 to -10 850hpa temps for days on end, then to suddenly show +5......it was commented that maybe the ensembles were useful to illustrate certainty in the runs ie. great scatter = great uncertainty. But now I'm not so sure!cc_confused.gif

    One things for sure. Given the "I told you so" posts on both sides over the last few days, I've learn't one thing:

    Humble Pie is a dish best served cold!blum.gif

    smich

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I'm puzzled guys. The AO and NAO forecasts are not predictive of what the models are going to show, they are reactive to the current output, right?

    Given what the current models are showing since the "turnaround" today, how come AO still shows as tanked and NAO still largely negative with just a couple of positive members?

    With both negative, I thought this was the holy grail, and it certainly was during recent cold spells this winter. What's different this time?

    The SS warming event should be even more in our favour! Is the Pacific to blame?

    Just thinking out loud as it were...

    smich

    Model Chat And Moods

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hello!

    Being of the ephemeral lightbold of the dreamymost, I would like to offer my deep thoughkus on the developy situe herein at this placeybode.

    Deep joy of the high pressicale over the Siberian permafrosty. We ask, "if all the highs of the Northern Hemibode were but one high, what a great big highhullollopper that would bold!" Yes! And, if the deep cold transnit out the backgrove and regressicale west, we'll all be in a deep joy of slippedyslidey in the icygripper!

    But wait! The scintillatey detail of the returfold of that high, it's not set in the hardbold of the stoneymost, so we could all either be doing a tearyshed to the sound of the scrapy catgut violin or doing a deep joy of the swivelly hippy in the snow like we've never seen it before!

    Stay cool everyone!

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hello!

    Being of the ephemeral lightbold of the dreamymost, I would like to offer my deep thoughkus on the developy situe herein at this placeybode.

    Deep joy of the high pressicale over the Siberian permafrosty. We ask, "if all the highs of the Northern Hemibode were but one high, what a great big highhullollopper that would bold!" Yes! And, if the deep cold transnit out the backgrove and regressicale west, we'll all be in a deep joy of slippedyslidey in the icygripper!

    But wait! The scintillatey detail of the returfold of that high, it's not set in the hardbold of of the stoneymost, so we could all either be doing a tearyshed to the sound of the scrapy catgut violin or doing a deep joy of the swivelly hippy in the snow like we've never seen it before!

    Stay cool everyone!

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Guys guys! We need to recognise what we are seeing here. Aside from the will it snow, head banging, teeth gnashing.....we are seeing a full blown weather front, from a proper Atlantic Low Pressure....

    .....stopped almost dead in it's tracks by the cold pool over the UK.

    It's rare, and it's exciting!

    Forget the snow, this is truly unusual weather!

    Steve M

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Guys, just checked out the SW England thread. There is already much gnashing of teeth and slashing of wrists, and they are supposedly in the thick of it at the moment!

    Let's all keep our expectations in check and then there won't be the need to overuse the wallbash.gif emoticon?

    Besides, even a couple of cms here in London on areas with lying snow will be enough to cause another Armageddon tomorrow morning!

    Steve M

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hi everyone,

    Just got back from skiing in Cervinia, Italy. On Saturday we had -20c with a -35c windchill so coming back to the uk wasn't too much of a shock!

    After a week's break, the charts still look fantastic. Another week of cold, becoming well embedded now, making things more interesting in terms of the surprise events that emerge in the "nowcast".

    Great synoptics, nuff said.

    smich

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