SunnyPlease

But being not used to something and not being able to physically handle something are two different things entirely. Temperatures of this nature will be much harder to tolerate for people in this country because they're not used to it, but that does not make it anymore dangerous because of that fact. Again, acclimatization and ability to actually handle something physically without ill effects are two very different things. A healthy person in the UK can handle 40c just as well as a healthy person in Nevada can in terms of bodily function, it's just one is more used to it so will suffer less mentally. There is not a special toleration tag in the body that clicks to enabled as soon as you've experienced enough heat.

Couldn't agree with this more. I know it's dangerous for the particularly old and infirm, but the vast majority of people will be fine. Stay hydrated, seek shade when possible, and make sure to wear 50spf. It's 2 days of extreme weather for this country, but very common in other countries. I take the potential heat issues for some seriously, but it is being very overreacted. And we better get used to it because temperatures that are coming up will be very common in a couple of decades.

2016 right? I was also there then. For me it was absolutely amazing. Sure, it was fiercely hot, but not quite the same sort of heat. As long as I stayed hydrated it was no issue.

I'd go as far to say that 40c is pretty much nailed on now (90% + confidence) and I NEVER thought I'd be saying that, even a few days ago. Couldn't even rule out 41c tbh. This is a truly extreme and exceptional period of weather coming up which will be remembered for a LONG time. Despite global warming etc, I have a feeling that this upcoming temperature will not be exceeded for a long long while. Record minimum is also going to be totally obliterated, perhaps by even 4c or higher.

Anyway, in relation to the models, we are now in the very reliable range and it’s possible looking at most of the suites that the record will be fairly smashed even on Monday, with 40c a high probability on Tuesday now. Tbh, I wouldn’t even write off hitting 41c

In a nutshell, yes. Although I doubt we will get the consistency/longevity of warm/hot settled periods like they get in Europe. I would rather have that tbh The mean temperature will certainly rise though

I wouldn't even write this off being higher than 40c at this point....just bonkers. A heat lovers wet dream

Low winds as well Can't really get a more extreme setup in the UK. Impossible.

And the BBC usually woefully undercook temps.....

I'll also say that in my experience, the ICON is very very accurate at short range, especially with temperatures. And that's also shooting for 40c. GFS is my favorite overall due to being better at longer range and also decent at short range, but if the ICON is forecasting you a temperature at 4 days out, it's usually not far off at all.

Not nailed on, no. Although I think the record is. Someone can't state the GFS is 'overcooking' temps though when others models are forecasting in line.

Guess he should say the same about the ICON and UKV then.... it's not just one model that's forecasting this, it's multiple, and in multiple runs.

GFS has always been my favorite model. None are perfect, far from it, but it's spotted many a spell when nothing else has, and isn't often far wrong.

That's what I thought before...but here we are. I was nailing my mast to 39c ish and was always bullish about the record going. But once I saw the models downgrading a couple of days ago, I thought 40c was off the table. However, If anything, it's upgraded from where it previously was. The 1.3c extra over the record needed to hit 40c is a LOT when you're talking about these extremes. It took us 16 years to break the previous record by 0.2c after all. But, this really is looking like an exceptional plume, and perhaps the much higher ground warming we have been given this time will be enough. I am certain it will be in the 39's somewhere, at least. Can't obviously guarantee 40c, but with no cloud and sun, there's not much reason why it shouldn't be.

He obviously knows a lot more than me, but given that multiple models across different systems are stating 40c is a distinct possibility, I'm not sure I agree with him. The ECM is often under cooking temps by 2-3c so if they're forecasting 37c, it's quite probable that 39-40c will be the figure. It's pretty much nailed on that the record will be broken, and the only thing that will scupper 40c in my opinion is unforeseen cloud cover or a quicker vacation of the hpa than expected.

True. Given the record minimum is 23.9C to my knowledge, it's not just going to be broken, it's going to be completely smashed.

It's not impossible for a place further north to record the hottest temperature of a given day if that location has less cloud etc than further south. And yes, there is more chance of breaking/setting records the hotter a location was on former days. Basic physics - warmer to start with = higher likelihood of climbing higher. But because this upcoming spell is so fierce, there is a very strong likelihood of northern areas setting their all time temperature records. In terms of setting a new UK temperature record, the further towards London/south the better. Again, basic physics. The further hot air has to travel north, the less potent it is. There are exceptions to this and there have been examples of far north locations setting high records, but it is very very rare. I'm sure someone will correct me, but I personally think it would be pretty much impossible for a location up north, say Manchester or higher, to break a UK maximum record.

Imagine if it isn't though....

ECM has been 3c off or so, so it's right in line for 39-40c. I still think Tuesday will see the absolute maximum.

Excuse my ignorance on the subject, but does that mean it will be quite a dry heat more akin to abroad rather than the sticky humid heat we often get?

Couldn't disagree with this more, but that's preferences I suppose. Don't get me wrong, I like a good storm, but it usually (not always) signals the end of a settled/warm spell and the introduction of Atlantic muck. There's a reason some of the best summers (1995, 2018) had little in the way of storms - they were very stable summers.

That's music to my ears. I'd be perfectly content with mid to high 20's for weeks on end, dry, and sunny. I love heat but favour consistency and settled even more. Azores is our friend this time of year. Plenty of time for muck from October to March.

A plume/short period of heat means nothing to a summer, or me, if it's followed by weeks of dross after. Don't get me wrong, I don't expect the same conditions again, I just want a continuation of the dry, settled and warm weather. Think 1976,1995 and 2018 rather than 2015 or 2019.

That is EXACTLY what I want.

I remember I got egg on my face with my mates in 2019 when I said London had the best chance of breaking the record and Cambridge/further north wouldn't get hot enough due to simple longer distance=lower heat distribution. Safe to say I was wrong lol. I do believe though that there is a limit in terms of capability to set heat records the further north you go. Further south always has a much higher chance. It's possible Cambridge (incidentally where I live) could be the hotspot again, but I very much doubt it will be further north like Lincolnshire etc like the charts are showing).