WeatherArc

Vince's stream 3 hours 46 mins onwards is something else, reminds me of those tornado vids from the 90s.

Some very, very good news regarding last night. Freddy is a lifesaver

Good news, hopefully the storm now stays outflow dominant

Everyone in Abilene needs to be in a safe space

Yeah its trying to do it again

Hopefully this storm doesnt do anything from now on and remains outflow dominant. Low level shear is very weak but instability is extreme with sbcape being over 5000.

completely levelled

Might be trying to recycle

weatherobsuk Agreed, straight in there helping those people. Hope that girl makes it out ok

Rope out

God i hope shes ok

INSANE jesus poor girl

This is absolutely crazy, tor violent and almost stationary

Large and strong tor on the ground! PDS tor warning in affect.

Day 7 of continuous photogenic tornadoes in the plains this year has gone from underperforming setups and busts to legendary in around 10 days. We've had so many tornado of the year contenders i've lost count, seems like this is the year for beautiful/photogenic tors. April now has the second most tornadoes on record after 2011 with a prelim count of 300. The April 25th-28th outbreak sequence resulted in 8 EF3s in Nebraska, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas and one EF4 in Dickson, Oklahoma from the nocturnal outbreak on the 27th, peak winds estimated at 170mph with the tornado being on the ground for 24 mins, touching down at 23:08 and lifting at 23:32 This is the first tornado to produce EF4 damage in Oklahoma since the May 9th 2016 Katie-Wynnewood tornado which was captured on camera by Pecos Hank.

Its going to be one of those seasons isnt it? We now have a day 5 15% again for much of the plains, including most of Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska and for what looks like an incredibly potent environment/setup, we'll see if this trend holds into shorter range models. But that is an extreme look for 114 hours out from the 06z gfs. Large upper level trough with negatively tilted shortwave ejecting right into the plains at peak heating. Strong low level mass response as the trough ejects from the rockies, powerful surface low development with pressure down to 984mb, resulting in a 40-60 knot low level jet across much of Kansas and Oklahoma. Deep, juicy moisture in place with dewpoints in the high 60s to low 70s. Temperatures will also likely reach into the 80s. Additionally lapse rates will be moderately steep with values around 7 degrees celcius per km. These should combine to form very strong instability, cape values will likely be in the 3,500 to 5,000 range (The euro even attempted to get sbcape up to 6,000 in one run!) This strong combination of shear and instability results in EHI values going as high as 10. Those shear vectors are almost completely perpendicular to the initiating dryline boundary across Oklahoma and Kansas, meaning better chances for discrete development. Some soundings from Oklahoma at 00z Soundings from Kansas at 00z Gfs also wants an almost completely uncapped warm sector at 00z I could see a 30% tomorrow if these trends continue, heres what the spc is saying right now, "A large upper trough with a strong embedded shortwave will develop across the western CONUS on Sunday/D4, with an 80 kt 500 mb speed max forecast over CO and NM by 12Z Monday. This trough will progressively become negatively tilted, moving quickly across the central and northern Plains during the day on Monday/D5. Even with the leading wave moving northeast, height falls will persist as far south as northern TX as a secondary speed max noses into CO/NM through Tuesday/D6 morning. Although model differences exist regarding the timing of the strong lead wave, the combination of a deepening surface low, strong large-scale ascent and moderate to strong instability will support scattered to perhaps widespread severe storms on Monday. Low-level moisture return will increase Sunday/D4 night as a southerly low-level jet develops. During the day on Monday/D5, models show low to mid 60s F dewpoints as far north as I-80 in NE/IA, with upper 60s to lower 70s F from OK into TX. The end result will be 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg MUCAPE across the warm sector, with strengthening shear. The strong wind fields and progressive nature of trough will lead to an eastward expansion of steep low-level lapse rates across most of NE, KS, and into central OK by late afternoon, aiding surface-based storms including supercells, tornadoes, particularly damaging winds and very large hail. If slower solutions such as the ECMWF verify, the severe risk could last well into the evening across eastern KS, OK, and western MO. Given the aforementioned timing and positioning differences with the parent trough and cold front/dryline, will maintain a broad 15% risk area, with upgrades in later outlooks as predictability increases. For the Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, significant severe weather potential is likely primarily from parts of TX, OK, and AR, and eventually LA and MS as strengthening zonal flow will be possible across the region. A moist and unstable air mass beneath such a flow regime (moderate west/southwest flow with subtle disturbances) would lead to an eastward expansion of the EML, with not only a tornado risk but very large hail. Additional severe outlooks are likely as these details become more predictable."

Shear very supportive of some photogenic mothership supercells tonight.

This tornado/storm have likely cemented themselves into weather history for what it did last night. A reminder that we dont need big troughs to get powerful tornadoes, this happened in an area outside the 2% tor risk. Mesoscale season is beginning.

AndrewHamm Not dumb questions at all! Rain in OK KS doesnt particularly affect dewpoint too much except for very localised regions (after storms pass dewpoints will often rise) i would look at the drought conditions in NM to really determine whether your going to get much dry air advected into the plains during these troughs This is a very good look considering how extreme the drought was the past few years, just enough dry air to get a cap but not enough to make it unbreakable when the forcing from troughs move through/surface heating occures, this dry air will also increase instability and help lapse rates. imo we are now into May so moisture wont be an issue, i know theres a few runs of gfs keeping moisture down in deep south due to cold front but moisture/dewpoints in the gulf itself is nearly at 80 degrees fahrenheit, dryline positioning is dependent on the low pressure systems rather than moisture, it depends on where your surface low sets up, all you need is a big system to come swinging through and those 70s dews will be easily advected northwards. If you have any other questions feel free to ask

Not expecting much today but some nice attempts at towers from a few cumulus, have somewhat fallen apart the last few mins.

We need to be thankful that this occurred in a very rural area with only a few farms, it will be a miracle if it hasnt hit anything. Its very clear from all radar and velocity data that the tornado last night in Oklahoma had EF5 winds (although rating will depend on whether it hit anything), it also only had a forward motion of 5mph, so structures would be exposed to potentially 200+ mph winds for longer than a minute, anything it hit would likely be completely obliterated.

What on earth happened in Oklahoma last night

Storms in Oklahoma doing some weird things tonight, almost stationary tornadoes on the ground. From the Kansas tornadoes earlier today, unfortunately hearing reports of a possible death with the Westmoreland tornado. Significant damage with the tornado with one home completely destroyed. 1 min 50 onwards from Reeds vid shows the power of this tornado, trees completely plucked out of the ground and thrown around the vortex. Side note, the intense vortex in Aarons twitter vid does slightly remind me of the 2020 Ashby Minnesota EF4, this vid is probably one of the best close range drill bit intercepts, the vortex 1 min onward is more than likely 200+ mph despite the tornadoes small size.