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WeatherArc

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Everything posted by WeatherArc

  1. WeatherArc
    Oklahoma
  2. WeatherArc
    May have another tor attempting near Perry
  3. WeatherArc
    Oklahoma might also do it
  4. WeatherArc
    The cell merger turned this storm into an HP beast, north of Topeka need to be sheltered.
  5. WeatherArc
    Big tornado down on reeds stream
  6. WeatherArc
    Reeds in topeka
  7. WeatherArc
    hmmm, Topeka storm about to undergo big merger with rotating supercell to its south. I would watch this process very closely.
  8. WeatherArc
    Wow, damage from the drillbit Reed and Aaron were on. Hopefully everones made it out ok.
  9. WeatherArc
    thats a look
  10. WeatherArc
    Rotation attempting to intensify on supercell heading towards city of Topeka
  11. WeatherArc
    Audible roar from this violent drillbit tornado. Likely very narrow but significant path of EF2-EF3+ damage with this thing. These drillbits can often be way more violent than mile wide wedges! Reeds vid from 1 min 55 onwards is insane, the thing is just plucking entire trees from the ground and throwing them around
  12. WeatherArc
    The moment i saw that observed sounding from Topeka 2 hours ago i knew Kansas was going to be the tornado play today, very photogenic tors.
  13. WeatherArc
    Wow, my interest in tonight has defo increased. 18z HRRR, watch these cells in Kansas is all im saying, Iowa seems like some very large hail but limited tor threat.
  14. WeatherArc
    Our active stretch continues with two enhanced risks for today and weds. Both 5% risk for tors, 15% for wind and 30% for large hail. I could see an upgrade to tor probabilities on both days though. Tonight, numerous supercells are forecast to fire off the dryline in Kansas and Nebraska at around 22z, initial cells will favour large hail however as the LLJ ramps up if cells can remain strong enough to drill through the weak low level inversion at 00z, as well as discrete an all hazards threat will likely develop with the potential for strong tornadoes. Supercells will then move into Iowa and Missouri as the evening goes on. Wednesday looks somewhat similar to tues except for a little more south in Central Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle, if discrete cells can fire off the dryline an all hazard threat exists. @AndrewHamm If the GFS keeps putting out runs like this your going to be in for quite the start to your chasing season Hopefully this post on twitter will be helpful for you and @Ben Sainsbury looks like we are in for an active start of May followed by a brief lull as the MJO becomes unfavourable, before a quick rebound for late may/early June. In terms of moisture, as long as there's troughs to transport it northwards you should be fine, water temps in the gulf are now in the mid 20 degree Celsius range and further warming is likely, this should ensure plentiful gulf moisture to be pulled northward by troughs. The influence of our pesky El Nino which stole the moisture from many events in March and early April has waned and will likely be non existent by mid May. All seasonal models ive seen being floated around twitter still very much favour an active may.
  15. WeatherArc
    Interesting, SPC mentioning the risk of a strong tornado threat on Wednesday. Not much upper level flow but may be just enough to support supercells given a strong low level jet. Cells will likely be very discrete given orientation of shear vectors to the dryline. Large instability over 4,000 j/kg also across warm sector. Large nightime increase of LLJ to 50 knots, could support strong tornadoes alongside a large-very large hail risk.
  16. WeatherArc
    @Eagle Eye insane, so good to have DOW data from this outbreak.
  17. WeatherArc
    Amazing work as always by the nws, very much on it tonight. Heres the Rap proximity sounding, moment ascent arrived the cap got lifted and supercells could use the environment to its fullest. Unfortunately, many significant, rain wrapped and nocturnal tornadoes occurred last night, significant damage in areas such as Sulphur Oklahoma.
  18. WeatherArc
    Well, i was wondering why these were struggling, of all things i didnt expect a cap to be an issue today.
  19. WeatherArc
    Mike Morgan also on the Hinton cell
  20. WeatherArc
  21. WeatherArc
    Trying its best
  22. WeatherArc
    Current view of the Hinton cell, really trying to put something down
  23. WeatherArc
  24. WeatherArc
    From the cell Connors on. Going through merger at the moment, i would keep an eye on it as it moves to the north east of OKC This is the environment this thing is moving into
  25. WeatherArc
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