WeatherArc

Beauty of a supercell in Oklahoma this evening I am also keeping an eye on the completely unmodeled development in southern Oklahoma, very strong cap so likely elevated but does need watching due to strong LLJ and current track over OKC metro.

Very potent look via nam and nam3km for tuesday night across the midwest, storm mode uncertain but late may thermodynamics combined with march/early april wind shear gives for a very high-end look, would watch this one very closely. Soundings from Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin. SPC has a day 3 enhanced risk out, if the nam keeps putting these solutions out and other cams such as the HRRR agrees, upgrades very likely. The csu mlp already has the equivalent to a high risk for tues, last time probabilities were so high was the may 6th high risk. Thats definitely a look of all time We also have a day one moderate for tonight for a possible Derecho, tornado threat low but i would expect a significant damaging wind event like the one in Houston with multiple 100+ mph wind reports. Discrete supercells will quickly congeal into a significant line with bowing segments.

Just been surprisingly woken up by a very heavy shower that randomly developed, not expecting much but may be one or two rumbles from it

While our tornado threat didnt materialise the damaging wind threat in Texas defo did, A large and destructive complex of storms hit the Houston Metro area last night with sustained winds of around 70mph and gusts up to 120mph, the strongest winds directly impacted downtown. As matty40s said this was essentially the equivalent of a category 1 or 2 hurricane hitting a major metropolitan area. Lots of damage reports across the city, powerlines down, roofs blown off, windows shattered and close to a million people without power.

Would keep an eye on today in Texas, some interesting boundary interactions combined with strong (3500-4500sbcape) instability.

The first potential big day of what looks to be an active stretch is Sunday night. 12z GFS has a small feature ejecting into the plains amid temps in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Lapse rates look particularly favourable in the 7.5-8.5 degree range. A relatively strong surface low develops, mass response with a 40 knot low level jet. The combination of strong lapse rates, rich moisture and surface heating creates a very juicy atmosphere, sbcape between 3,000 and 5,000 would lead to explosive thunderstorm development. Bulk shear also surprisingly strong and supportive of supercells, vectors from initiating boundary much more perpendicular than parallel so favours discrete convection. Inflated and curved hodographs would be supportive of a tornado threat. EHI peaking at around 14.2 just south of the OK KS border. However, the main fail mode right now does appear to be a large capping inversion over most of the warm sector, need to keep an eye on how this inversion trends over next few days. MikeUpjohn Good luck out there, everything in the models right now seem to be pointing to a very active late may, by the looks of things though your not going to be leaving oklahoma or kansas much

CFS supercell comp for weeks 2 and 3 really starting to light up

The period of may 19-23rd defo has my attention at the moment, still far out but seems to be gaining some traction within models, one to watch. I mean just by going off the EHI values you can see the uptick in severe potential. This is the 18z gfs from today till may 29th Good luck and stay safe to everyone going out there! The theme so far of 2024 has been very photogenic tors, hopefully that trend continues. New great vids from Pecos Hank and Dan Shaw chasing the May 2nd tornadoes.

These three cells seem to be the focus for the West Midlands now, hopefully they can sustain themselves.

Suspected this, shouldn't affect new development near Swindon where it still looks sunny but some areas north of Hereford may have problems getting things going, this shouldn't really effect the already established storms in Wales.

I mentioned this potential about 30 mins ago, multiple cells firing in a line to the east of the cell over Ross-on-Wye

Impressive display on radar.

Looks like we might have a new cell becoming dominant within the cluster to the south west of Birmingham.

DIS1970 Unfortunately our dominant supercell has really died and left weaker updrafts, would watch which one can regain dominance and start using the atmosphere to its fullest again, the cell further south near Bristol could also be potentially one to watch.

Current conditions via 12z GFS, global models dont do well with instability so add about 300-600 j/kg of cape on to values. Near Worcester Oswestry Swindon Manchester Bletchley

Another area with potential for development is to the east of the cell north of Bristol, would keep an eye on radar

Looking really stormy to my west now Looks like new attempts at updrafts North of Tewkesbury aswell

Anyone close to or in Birmingham, watch the cell to the North-West of Gloucester very closely. Seems to be taking on more of a north-east motion.

CoventryWeather Good spot! Does seem to be a developing updraft, will keep an eye on it.

Opened my window just in case i can hear some distant thunder, i give it 5 seconds before a wasp gets in

Great satellite view, big cumulus field with a few large anvils. Wondering if we get anymore development, cumulus seems quite bubbly/agitated.

Anvil from Gloucester cells beginning to be seen just to my west.

I believe this is the Ross on Wye cell

CoventryWeather Looks like it, but not 100%. Difficult to tell with the cell in its rear flank, does have a classic V or flying eagle shape though.