Wetterfrosch

I seem to have developed miracle weather forecasting dogs. As two twelve year old Labradors Stella and Melangell spend much of their days dozing if not sleeping but today they were rather aggitated and asked to be taken out an hour early for their teatime walk. We left in fairly bright conditions but, blow me down, as soon as we returned home this dense, drenching Welsh drizzle descended on the village falling out of very low clouds, not that the NW radar shows anything but nevertheless is deeply unpleasant and hasn't stopped yet. Perhaps I should hire them out to the professionals - or would that count as child labour or animal cruelty?

Luckily, we've been speared so far today. Miserable skies by now but no more than the odd drizzly shower. More chance of rain this evening/overnight as the centre of the low moves east and the rain currently to our north catches up with us. Yes, Saturday looks another day to forget, just feel sorry for holiday makers and the outlook for the Welsh hospitality industry at that rate. No wonder people head to foreign shores.

Sorry, should have clarified - it was the third wettest July, only surpassed by 2010 (258.5 mm) and 2020 (182.7 mm). As for the wettest month overall, December 2015 leads the pack with an incredible 444.4mm while the whole three winter months to February 2016 came out 882.8 mm and that occured during a strong El Nino, hence my previous comment. So far today, it's been much brighter and drier up here than expected. No problem getting dogs out without getting wet. With the sun breaking through now it's only a matter of time when the increased convection will give rise to heavy downpours and TS. Being practically in the middle of the low, they also won't be moving anywhere fast I imagine. I'd better sort a few outdoor jobs out before then.

I am not really surprised as much of the month was rather miserable. My own rain gauge had to be relieved of 167.7 mm, the third highest total since I started recording in 2003. I still sense that we might be rewarded either a very warm September or even a golden October as things tend to even out again eventually. Not looking forward to tomorrow's downpours and trying to walk the dogs in between.

Go for it while the chance is there. After a cloudy and rather dark morning the sun has come out now and it feels quite pleasant for a change. Just in time for our Lughnasadh/Lammas celebrations with friends this afternoon, sitting out in our mini stone circle.

Admittedly, that's the current theory but in these ever warming years, who knows how long it may take to manifest on our shores, if at all. Other sources like the one below state the opposite, so who knows. In fact, winter 2015/16 fell into one of the strongest El Nino's and turned out to be the 3rd warmest in England and Wales, was very wild with 11 named storms and brought widespread flooding to UK and Ireland. We must not forget that we are the furthest away from the source of these events and lots of modifications can occur along the way and therefore can't take anything for granted. Anyhow, we'll see in good time. El Nino And La Nina WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM El Nino And La Nina : Latest weather news and forecasts updated every 6 hours, every day of the year. On the upside, there are hints of some warmth returning at the end of the ECMWF run, just hope it's not another garden path event.

Who knows if we need any jumpers at all this winter with El Nino looming large?Perhaps we'll end up wearing those old fashioned 1900's bathing costumes instead. Gathered my first pound of blackberries today between two downpours and I sense it may be a race against time to get my 10lb minimum as with so much and frequent rainfall they have little chance of drying out in between and take to rotting easily.

Getting rather boring being stuck in the same old ruts of wind/rain and interspersed by brief drier and brighter interludes. If nothing else, my potatoes might at least benefit!?

MetOffice outlook to 1 August: Unsettled conditions will persist through the start of August, with days of sunny spells and showers perhaps interspersed with periods of more persistent rain as low pressure systems move across the UK. When these low pressure systems occur, they are more likely to run across southern parts of the UK while the north remains drier. Otherwise, on showery days, showers will often be concentrated in the north and east, where they may be heavy and thundery at times and could occasionally merge into longer spells of rain. Western areas are more likely to remain drier, although the chance of showers remains. Temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal, with a brisk northwesterly breeze exacerbating the cool feel. Overall, there is a higher than usual risk of strong winds. In other words, it's a case of sitting between a rock and a hard place, generally speaking. And it doesn't get that much better: In the later half of August, there is an increased chance that the unsettled conditions will persist with a mixture of rain and showers continuing to affect the UK., There is a signal for short-lived drier, brighter and occasionally warmer interludes towards the end of August, however a prolonged dry and hot spell is unlikely. Are we grasping for the proverbial rainbow here waiting for a late summery spell drifting further and further away and into September? I can hear that character from Dad's Army proclaiming 'We are doomed!' Luckily, even modern science has it's inaccuracies and uncertainties, so I'm not giving up hope just yet. One principle the atmosphere functions by is that a small cause can bring forth a major effect and it's just such a complex 'beast' with lots of variables.

It certainly looks more like early onset of autumn to me. The sight of my battered sweet peas trying to cling on speaks volumes. Weirdly enough, (feeled) temperatures are still keeping to more summery levels, especially at night probably down to high levels of humidity, and once sun breaks through we're back in full summer mode again. Blackberries getting ready for the pick so I'd better make space in the freezer for them. For my 5 gallon bin of wine I need 10 to 12lb to start with but I also usually store another 4 to 6lb to use in desserts or turn into cordial for winter, hamster that i am!

If I could I would I happily send you all the surplus wind at our end into your direction, not keen on it myself, living in an elderly house with parts of the roof in need of renewing. From my end of the country it seems somewhat ludicrous to read in the MO headline this evening of skies 'turning cloudy' when it has never been anything else all weekend. Anyway, look forward to seeing some blue sky and sunshine later tomorrow!

I'm a little surprised there was no rainfall warning out for today, perhaps because it stretched consistently over the whole day rather than falling within just a few hours. Tomorrow's warning for N Wales, on the other hand, does run over the whole day with widespread 20 to 30 mm anticipated which doesn't sound too much but presumably following a wet Saturday may lift the risk of flooding considerably. All in all, a weekend to better forget. Might be baking some bread tomorrow instead and stick most into the freezer. Won't complain too much though, looking to places like Rhodes.

If I had to choose I'd always prefer our changeable weather pattern, no matter how damp and drab it gets at times. Hot sunny days are fine and welcome too, but not at the scale currently seen elsewhere in the northern hemisphere, with Death Valley still at 49 C - AT MIDNIGHT according to the Beeb!! No thank you! Next couple of days look quite promising with lengthy sunny spells before a soggy weekend, especially Saturday, less than ideal for the beginning of school holidays.

Quite a decent day today with some sunshine and staying dry, despite some impressive Cb clouds towering above our valley. Tomorrow looks like another 'home day' and a write off regarding outdoor activities. At least no repeat of those nasty gusty winds which counts for something.

Definitely an autumn day yesterday up here with consistently strong gusty winds and seemingly never ending showery rain. Yet, my meagre 12 mm over the last 24 hours compares pale with Capel Curig's 73 mm, Lake Vyrnwy 47 mm and Bala 27 mm (courtesy of weatheronline.com). Should go some way to fill up those reservoirs and ground water levels. Neither here nor there today with just lots of cloud but dry for most part, at least allowing me to do a few things in the garden, like planting out some more lettuce which should see me sorted well into autumn. Are you aware that yesterday was actually St Swithin's day?!?! Came across a report on GB News this morning about a scorching heatwave hitting our shores soon and lasting nine weeks to the end of September but guess who the author is??? The name is Nathan Rao, the same individual who has previously adorned the headlines in the Daily Express, warning us of dumpings of snow not seen in a century and frost more typical for Siberia. As much as I would like to see the return of some meaningful and lasting warmth, my advice is - BIN IT!! With a trough to our east and ridging to the west it may well become drier and even sunny at times as we head into August but that won't allow us to 'benefit' here in Wales from the 'frying pan heat' currently seen in southern Europe, haven't even got any desire for it to be honest. Have a good Sunday, all!!

This morning turned out comparatively benign with just a few drops of rain and not more than a moderate breeze but over the last hour or so the rain has pepped up, as has the wind, making it look rather wild by now. My sweet pea support is holding up to this point, touch wood I won't need to engage in another rescue mission.

Hurray, my trust in the weather gods has at least partially been restored. After the weekend's heat and 21.5 mm of rain in the last 24 hours I even spotted the first of my mangetaut peas which admittedly I was very late to plant this year. Beans also flowering prolifically but the sweet peas have taken a battering in the persistently strong winds so I might have to resort to installing roof batons at either end to save them while they are still doing so well otherwise. I must say that things actually developed much in the way as they often did in the past with the initial transition to cooler conditions turning out to be rather benign despite all the hype and warning issued and the main rain event following days later and rather unassumingly. Can now even consider a bonfire to be safe enough to get rid of piles of old tree cuttings.

Having missed out, yet again, on any meaningful rain over the weekend (less than 1 mm!!!) I am rather glad to see today's steady rain, could do without the strong breeze though. It seems that once a certain weather pattern establishes itself, some form of persistence kicks in and we're stuck in it's ruts for weeks on end. We might end up with a glorious golden September but still hope for one or two more BBQ's on balmy late summer nights before then!!

Should actually feel more than just a touch warmer come the weekend. With winds veering back to S/SE'lies even the normally conservative MetO have us back into the at least low 20C's again, GFS nearer the middle. Needless to say that it won't last for too long but the evident breakdown might be exciting for some of us in terms of rainfall/TS.

Just had to come in from the garden to take shelter from a pretty heavy shower that brought the temperature right down to 11 C but before, but yes, it was quite pleasant in the sun before then. Have also had to reinforce my sweet peas with extra stakes and will need to watch the sugar snap peas as the keep growing and getting ever heavy on their netting. I'm confident though that my beans are safe in their more square-ish arrangement. Not that I would complain about the rain after all those dry weeks on end but the wind really could wait till October - not too much to ask for, is it?

Feels rather autumnal out there today. At least, some more substantial rain to go with it plus the outlook of gradually rising temperatures heading into next weekend, albeit with showers or possibly even thunderstorms for some of us which would be ideal from a gardener's point of view.

You seem to have been luckier than myself then! Just 1 mm this morning in my rain gauge and 2.5 mm the day before, not really enough to penetrate the ground deep enough. Rather gloomy today with drips and draps of light rain/drizzle on and (more likely) off, as so often round here more cloud and dullness than useful rain. At least evaporation should be at a minimum, helping moisture retention to some extent and giving plants a chance to soak it up. Welcome to the British summer!!

Absolute bliss those showers, saving me two nights of watering, apart from the greenhouse of course. Not unexpectedly, heaviest downpours were to my east/southeast with Wrexham area hit especially hard apparently. Came across an online article in the Daily Mail (if I remember rightly!?) showing a chart of SST anomalies in the North Atlantic being up to 4 C above normal around UK coasts and referring to it as a maritime heatwave. Wonder if that is (at least in part) responsible for current high temperatures, especially at night.

Quite so, and as the drop in temperature appears to be modest it might even turn out decent growing weather! Light rain here now for the last two hours and temperature down to 19 C from 27 C at midday, with virtually no wind quite pleasant actually!!

Thank you very much for that graphic comparison! Wouldn't be the first time if UKMO eventually started to catch up with the supposedly inferior product which we all know tends to be first in picking up new trends. Perhaps it's just wishful thinking on my part, getting tired of the repeated watering sessions in the evening. I had a builder round this past two days, working in full sun on the front of the house and, guess what, today he called in sick. His son chose to go topless which makes me wonder if his skin is peeling off by now? What were they thinking???