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mike Meehan

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Posts posted by mike Meehan

    Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Shows the human input of the chief forecaster, the Met are quite clearly going with the 'block' holding more to our N/NE, that fax chart is pretty nice considering the GFS at the same time. I know this gets said every winter really but there really is an extreme level of uncertainty at the moment and I think the models are going to struggle for the time being, theres lots of complicated PROJECTED weather patterns going on around the NH within the next 10 days or so. Nothing to be overly depressed about, nor excited about but you can tell this thread is full of people frustrated by a rubbish, let down winter so far.

     

    Understandable I guess, but I still think something is around the corner with the projected NH pattern we'd be exceptionally unlucky to miss out for the entire winter, chins up chumps.

    I suppose it could happen the temps in Scandinavia have cooled quite lot in the last few days as has North West Russia and cold temps are good for building anticyclones, so we may just be in with a chance :)

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    We see now that the Scandy temps are now falling to normal winter levels but such is the fickle nature of the beasterlies, the cold ones appear to be over SW Norway and in the big scheme of things only a short distance from the UK - it is obviously the scene of a battle but as to which side will win - who knows?

     

    If it carries on like this I will be looking forward very much to the warmer temps of Spring, or will the northerlies creep in and give us a cooler Spring than Winter?

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Still hoping for cold and snow somewhere between very end of Jan to mid Apr, too early for cold yet, as I said before Xmas, models will not show cold until near the end of Jan at the earliest

     

    winter not started yet, I hope it will not be mild

    I agree the continent is still too warm at the moment - it appears that winter proper has only got as far as the Urals - if there is a cold spell to come, I would say the end of Jan beginning of Feb - there is just enough time for the near continent to cool down and perhaps we could be treated to some nice dry continental snow - I hate the slushy stuff but the weather gods have their own mind and there is little we can do to affect it.

    Cancel the Barbeque

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted · Edited by mike Meehan

    Life is more about than following every fad going in a determined effort to break longevity records. It is also about enjoying one's life, so my view is that the quality is far better than the quantity. I am also a firm believer that a little of what you fancy does you good, so I wont be knocking barbies on the head - I will still enjoy them on warm summers' evenings with a glass or two of wine and some good company.

     

    Come to think about it, the salmonella egg scare put out by Edwina Curry some years ago did not detract from my consumption of eggs, neither did the BSE or the horsemeat scandal put me off eating beef. 

     

    We have to take some risks in life - we may not necessarily live any longer through avoiding them - it will just seem that way Posted Image

    • Like 2

    Will the universe really end?

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    I believe the current theory is that the universe will continue to expand and as it does so the stars and matter will become so widespread that the matter will not be able to form a mass sufficient to form new stars as what happens today - in the meantime the stars in existence will reach the end of their life cycle, so the ultimate will be a multitude of widely spaced cold bodies.

     

    This depends on the belief of there being dark matter and dark energy, both of which we don't really know anything about and can only infer its presence through gravitational observations.

     

    However what is there to say that there is not more exotic matter than this about.

     

    We believe the universe as we know it today came into being from the big bang which was a singularity but where did the matter come from in the first place - was it from a previous universe which had contracted into this singularity? To an extent this makes sense and although we have an expanding universe at the moment, can we be sure that this state will continue to exist or might some other trigger come into play to reverse this process?

     

    Until we are able to identify the properties of the dark matter and energy we can't really begin to understand but I suppose if we were to take a look at the rest of the physical world, it does seem that things occur in cycles.

     

    The only thing we can say for certain is that since this is going to take say a million to the umpteenth power years to play through none of us will be here to see it.

    Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mike Meehan

    After the ECM held an easterly party last night its the clean up today with bottles and debris lying all over the place!

     

    Regardless of the morning climbdown by the operational run there is a trend for temperatures to fall looking at the De Bilt ensembles, the wind directions are all over the place.

     

    http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

     

    The robust signal for the continued rinse and repeat monsoon is now weakening but the outlook is messy if you're trying to pin some detail down. The PV still looks trouble some although not as strong, generally you can only work with so much given the PV location so there are things that you definitely know you wont see within the medium term, so Greenland block is out, northerly toppler out, upstream there is some uncertainty as to the depth and amplitude of troughing in the west/central USA as the pattern changes over there; which will therefore impact the amplitude of the jet coming out of the eastern USA.

     

    In terms of whats to be expected over the UK well several options, troughing digging se with pressure still high to the ne, I'd still keep the possibility of an easterly within ten days, theres still a cluster of ECM solutions that bring this in.

     

    Overall I think the zonal conditions that we've seen for weeks are on the way out, I think its look east or ne going forward, some trough disruption likely close to the UK and a possible battle ground scenario setting up before the PV finally edges sufficiently away.

     

    With the easterly still refusing to disappear off the radar within the ten day period, just as the easterly disappeared quickly it could just as easily return, the margins remain very small either way.

    It looks like Accu Weather are in agreement Nick, these are Jan '14 dates for Watford, however still a long way off and much can change.

     

     

     
     
    12
     
    Variable cloud, a shower
    7° Lo -1°
    Hist. Avg. 6° Lo 2°
     
     
    13
     
    Low cloud
    4° Lo -1°
    Hist. Avg. 6° Lo 2°
     
     
    14
     
    Decreasing cloud
    2° Lo -3°
    Hist. Avg. 6° Lo 2°
     
     
    15
     
    Sunny spells and patchy cloud
    1° Lo -4°
    Hist. Avg. 6° Lo 2°
     
     
    16
     
    Sunny periods
    1° Lo -5°
    Hist. Avg. 6° Lo 2°
     
     
    17
     
    Decreasing cloud and cold
    0° Lo -4°
    Hist. Avg. 6° Lo 2°
     
     
    18
     
    A shower in the afternoon
    3° Lo 2°

     

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hope everyone enjoyed their New Year celebrations, if truth be told I love Xmas but find another year ticking by rather traumatic!

     

    Just catching up with the last GFS of 2013, interesting to the ne but flatter further west, that's enough said about that bah humbug run! In terms of Fergies post you can see here on the T96hrs fax chart the possible interest:

     

    Posted Imagefax96s.gif

     

    North of the triple point, it looks like the winds slacken out which would help, still at that range the track could change so I wouldn't view this as a certainty.

    Hasn't anybody some nice charts to look at?

    Technological life elsewhere in the Galaxy/Universe

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    If we take into account the vastness of just our galaxy and the number of stars and the potential number of Earthlike planets, I believe it is possible that there could be quite number of those which there are technologically advanced life forms but alas our current knowledge of science has not reached the stage where it would be possible to travel across the galaxy, 100,000 light years across and 1,000 light years deep, so it's not quite the same as popping out to the local corner shop.

     

    Some theorists postulate that it may be possible for matter to be transmitted via wormholes, should we ever be able to find one but they may well prove to be an  unsatisfactory transportation system for the human frame and it may well be that these wormholes are far too small.

     

    At the same time if we consider how much scientific knowledge and technology has advanced in the last 100 years we can't even begin to envisage all the likely advances which would be made in the next 1,000 years, even more in 10,000 years, so it is not something I would rule out altogether.

     

    Failing that, I would expect it quite likely, should mankind still be around in 2 or 3 million years time when the expansion of the sun will start to make life a little difficult on Earth I could envisage, first of all settlement of some suitable moons of the gas giants and thereafter the construction of a self supporting vehicle which could sustain human life for many generations whilst a new suitable habitat is found.

     

    I would not expect mankind to take the prospect of being frizzled by our sun starting to morph into a red giant lying down and would expect that such an attempt would be made; as to whether it is successful or not, who knows?

     

    If we accept this, then it is reasonable to consider that other intelligent beings in other parts of the galaxy could come up with the same idea but they could be as far as 100,000 light years from us and that long ago, as a species, we were still in a primitive stone age era, so I am not holding my breathe until we make contact with them but it is interesting to conjecture and let our imaginations run riot.

     

    What I will say and it is something we have found on this planet,  is that wherever it is possible for life to start and this covers a remarkable range of habitats from the thermal vents under the sea to glaciers, some existing with oxygen and some without, it will start and with the right circumstances, evolve.

    Severe Atlantic Storms over the Christmas & New Year period

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    We've been very fortunate at Watford - the worst we had was the fish pond overflowing during the early hours of Christmas Day but by the morning it was back to its normal level, mainly due to us incorporating an overflow system.

     

    Flooding should not really be a risk to us because of our local topography.

     

    The rainfall last night appears to have been less than the previous storm, so we were ok with this one as well.

     

    Obviously not good at all for those who have been flooded out, sustained storm damage, power cuts and the relatives of those who have lost their lives.

     

    The other thing I was afraid of was the safety of ships at sea but a quick look for possible ships in distress was a Russian vessel trapped in the Antarctic ice and arrangements are at hand to release this with a Chinese ice breaker. No doubt many stayed in port, or found the best place to ride the storms out, though I did notice that the Isle of Wight Ferry was still running for at last part of the time.

     

    I did hear that a number of flights got diverted fro Heathrow and Gatwick on Christmas Eve, many did not attempt a take off but I understand there were one or two exceptions.

     

    So all in all an interesting couple of days or so - I don't think I can recall anything quite like that before - a single storm like October 1987, yes but not where they keep following one another quite to this extent - it's all down to those nasty jet streams - I'm going to tell Santa so they don't get a present next Christmas :)

     

    Perhaps after this little lot a change will be on the way.

    • Like 2

    UMD Leads 1st Local-to-Global Mapping of Forest

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    The ultimate is that without plant life, we have no oxygen to breath - the amazing thing is that for ages past, the earth has managed to keep us to a 20% ratio of oxygen in the air and I can't help thinking that if too many forests are destroyed that ratio will drop.

     

    Not only that  you chop down the trees of the Amazon etc where the land is being variously used for logging, cattle pastures and cash crops it is going to upset the balance and these areas will get drier and if we are not careful we will cause a tipping action.

     

    If we have any sense at all we should be replanting these areas as quickly as we can and try to extend the area of forests where possible, otherwise to put it in the words of Fraser, 'We are all doomed Mr Mainwaring, I tell ye we are all doomed'.

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