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MattH

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Everything posted by MattH

  1. MattH
    Morning all... Just a quick one, but the EC 32 day continues to maintain a risk of +ve pressure anoms to the N and NW of the UK throughout the Dec with lower than average pressure to the S and SE. Clearly this is a persistent signal and the model runs through to the 30th of Dec now. The signal does weaken as the month progresses, but there remains little evidence at all to support lower than average pressure either to the NW, N or NE of the UK through the Dec. Also just wanted to post this image as the correlation between the EC32 day between the same time frame matches this GFS ENS image very well; http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zENS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif Clearly that is an pretty impressive anomaly distribution and again matches the EC32 almost perfectly towards mid-month. The possibilities through December look quite extensive and, to me, the risk now of a zonal, wet, windy and mild month looks highly unlikely. Lets hope that further wave 1/2 activity continues to bombard the vortex and aids it's demise, of sorts, during the second half of the month to then potentially setup a mouthwatering January perhaps. Cheers, Matt.
  2. MattH
    Morning...Few ECMWF charts from yesterday's 12Z run to highlight which continue to seem of interest; Continued trend for a major ridge to develop and bring a marked region of warming into more eastern areas of Canada in particular. What does seem to be evident if you run down the below charts is that despite the vortex re-developing after the split, the trend for the vortex to be 'pushed' into parts of northern Russia does seem to take place. http://wekuw.met.fu-...l&lng=eng#fig11 Evident well on the 50hPa charts as well, perhaps this may promote ridging/higher pressure to the NW with time(?) http://wekuw.met.fu-...l&lng=eng#fig11 Continued trend as well for the zonal winds to decrease and fall to far more promising levels given the above developments; http://wekuw.met.fu-...l&var=u&lng=eng Wave 2 activity continues to look as though it will peak in the next 3 or 4 days but then as this wanes, up steps Wave 1 within the 7 to 10 day time frame (as mentioned above by GP) and the magnitude of this particular wave by day 10 looks pretty impressive to me!; http://wekuw.met.fu-...a2&lng=eng#fig5 http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=ha1&lng=eng Overall I think we have and continue to be very lucky in terms of the lack of influence the strong vortex has had on the troposphere. Clearly many will remember this time last year and we were staring down the barrel of a zonal mess. So despite what has clearly been a noteworthy and significant vortex during the autumn, the above charts continue to be very interesting indeed. The clear progression within the short term, towards something more unsettled with quite a noteworthy region of 'energy' near southern Greenland allowing some Atlantic influence, I believe, will be temporary on the grand scheme of things for December. The last update of the EC 32 on Tue morning highlighted further blocking to the NW of the UK towards Christmas and clearly it did overall pick up this current pattern we are in and a colder end to November/start to December. So here's hoping, but without sounding like I'm repeating what others have mentioned, I do think that the second half of December and January are well primed for some noteworthy cold outbreaks and clearly if you want a decent cold synoptic setup then that (IMO) is the best time of the winter for it/them. Regards to all, Matt.
  3. MattH
    Morning, just a quick summary, but it's looking good!...Few charts that stand out; http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha1_f240.gif - Wave 1 really gets going by D10 from yesterday 12Z ECM. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha2_f240.gif - Signs of Wave 2 making a come back as well still. The broader pattern towards a split by the end of November into early December remains and the warming event continues to grow as well. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30f240.gif http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf50f240.gif If you flick through the zonal mean wind charts as well there is definitely a reduction in speeds between say 50N and 80N towards the end of the forecast period; http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=u&lng=eng#fig11 10hPa and 30hPa zonal wind at 60N signaled to decrease with time by early December; http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=fluxes&alert=1&lng=eng There's not much sign of any significant warming yet, but I presume that will take place with time once the above factors get to work, but from what I can see of the 12Z ECM from yesterday's it maintains good consistency with the GFS model and clearly there are plenty of variables there which are likely to really nibble away at the vortex come the turn of the month. All good signs from what I can tell!... Regards to all, M.
  4. MattH
    Yabba-dabba-do, this will do!.... http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30f240.gif http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf50f240.gif (very similar to GFS Det now) Wave 1 and Wave 2 re-developing with time; http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha1_f216.gif http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha2_f240.gif Some positive signs becoming evident on the ECMWF now which clearly match/support what the GFS has been showing for days. The temp wave 1/2 are showing some interesting developments but as would be expected, as yet, the zonal mean state (temps) are yet to show any signs of warming. The ECMWF 32 day update overnight as well maintains the signal for northern blocking through the 2nd week of December now with temperatures clearly becoming generally below average by a number of degrees. Without question, this excellent model, has nailed this situation down weeks in advance in terms of the broader change in synoptic pattern. However, what it now shows, is a return to more zonal conditions towards and beyond mid-December which is a concern. The +ve height anoms to the N and NW of the UK disappear by the 4th week of the run and are replaced by lower than average pressure anoms to the W and SW of the UK with temperatures recovering back to nearer average given a more unsettled theme. Clearly this needs monitoring, as despite some promising signs from within the models regarding the stratosphere, in my opinion, after a period of northern blocking a return to more unsettled and potentially zonal conditions for a while mid-December seems reasonable, but then potentially turning colder again later in the month. For now though, looks promising to me. Matt.
  5. MattH
    I wish this chart was at T+24hr ! http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121119/00/384/npst30.png Still out in the far reaches of no-mans-land, but still, as discussed yesterday it is certainly showing some consistency. 12Z ECMWF from yesterday out to 240hr not as interesting, as yet, but potential for wave 1 and 2 activity, the latter peaks in the next few days then declines before potentially re-developing at day 10; http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha2_f240.gif http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha1_f216.gif Still plenty of potential in time... Matt. NB: The 00Z GFS Det at surface levels evolves a synoptic pattern which has similarities to Nov/Dec 2010 late in the run...
  6. MattH
    Agreed and thanks for the link, I'll take a look through it when I get chance... Must admit despite the seasonal models, which like any model we would be wrong to ignore, I am certainly of the mindset that despite a vortex which has characteristics of this time last year, there is something 'different' about this year and of which, with time, will hopefully lead to the vortex being displaced or split. I'm not one for stats and perhaps someone could correct me, but I would imagine it's difficult to find a set of stratospheric data which matches the current conditions which then continue throughout the coming 3 months without the vortex being disrupted at some point. May well seem simplistic, but again, I'm in the mindset, that given the variables which have been discussed in the last few months (expected QBO, Eurasion snow cover, SST's et al) that despite the current state of the vortex as the winter progresses it'll get beat down by a variety of features including the usual wave 1 and 2 activity and potential warming events etc. Must admit I'm finding the consistent GFS Det quite interesting a longer range as well, of which you have highlighted again. Whilst some model runs may well do it, there has definitely been some consistency for this split to take place at approx the turn of the month, along with this warming 'event' situated over Asia, so it'll be very interesting to see if that consistency continues and actually becomes reality with time. Quietly, I've got quite high hopes for this winter in terms of it not being a mild, wet, windy and zonal mess from start to finish. Cheers, Matt.
  7. MattH
    I think this sums it up well to date. The wave 2 activity looks set to wane, but the 12Z ECMWF from yesterday clearly shows wave 1 potentially on the up now. The 00Z GFS continues to show the vortex becoming very elongated by early December, if not still splitting and also with the pronounced region of warmth developing over Asia at the 30hPa as well. As ever this is clearly a long way off, but the more consistency then in theory the greater the risk of things developing like that. Must admit given that the deterministic models are now coming into alignment (of sorts) with the ECMWF 32 day, I still find it hard to believe we are likely to progress towards a more meridional/blocked pattern by late November given the state of the strat. I guess it shows that despite a very active and cold strat, if other variables are counterbalancing it, then blocking and potentially colder weather is still possible. M.
  8. MattH
    General update from me but the GFS Det once again looks interesting long term and manages to split the vortex but also continues to introduce an area of warming over Asia; http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121116/00/348/npst30.png It does consolidate at the end of the run, but clearly that area of 'warmth' remains quite noteworthy; http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121116/00/384/npst30.png The 12Z (15Nov12) ECMWF changes little. The wave 2 activity peaks near day 5/6 now before then waning somewhat, otherwise the charts from the ECMWF, that I can see, remain very similar to previous days with nothing really to get excited about; http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha2_f144.gif Signs of the strat becoming quite elongated on the ECM as well out to 240hrs, but clearly could be a lot better given the temperatures still forecast 'up there'; http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30f240.gif Finally the overnight update of the ECMWF 32 day maintains a strong meridional pattern to become established by late November and into early December across the North Atlantic. It still, yes still, implies that blocking will become noteworthy to the north or north-west of the UK with a +ve pressure anom expected to develop. With pressure lowering across southern areas of Europe, this maintains the trend for temperatures across the UK to drop below average into early December either from a N or NE'ly source. Clearly the consistency of the model can't be faltered, but even at this stage I do find some of the synoptics it is showing for early December hard to believe. Again though, forecast model consistency is what interests me as a forecast model, particularly at length, so as part of my own blog today, that's the side I'll be leaning towards for early December. Something colder, but something generally drier. I can't wait to see if the ECMWF actually becomes reality now to be honest after it showing this same signal for well over a week or more. It's a case of almost sitting back and waiting and seeing what happens now with the strat and more upper level conditions during the second half of November. Regards to all, have a good weekend. M.
  9. MattH
    Just for the record, as I did with the ECMWF seasonal update, the EUROSIP model has updated today which takes into consideration the ECMWF, UKMO, Meteo-France and NCEP longer term information and this update has changed in favour of the majority of the other seasonal forecast models and now signals a mild, wet and zonal winter period. The model for the 3 month period of D/J/F points towards higher than average pressure to the south and south-west of the UK and lower than average pressure to the north or north-west of the UK and hence a general +NAO pattern in particular. Either the majority of the seasonal models are going to fail miserably this winter now, or all the early signs which pointed (still point) towards a colder and more blocked winter will win out. Fascinating, but to be honest, I am slightly on edge now given this update as overall combining the UKMO seasonal model with the ECMWF seasonal model and now the EUROSIP model makes, in my opinion, quite a noteworthy and powerful data set which all point towards zonal and predominantly mild. M.
  10. MattH
    They are 2 very impressive charts from the 18Z GFS! Must admit the elongation on some of those charts seem to have been heading that way for some time. Unless I'm mistaken its a shame there are no geo wave 1 and 2 GFS charts as per the charts from the ECMWF as perhaps the 18Z run is showing some additional and noteworthy waves to create that pattern. We all know the flaws of the GFS Det model from a forecasting perspective but this is one signal that clearly needs monitoring for consistency. Impressive split! Matt.
  11. MattH
    Unfortunately not I'm afraid, it's only available to companies who have paid the ECMWF for it, these usually being WMO organisations. Obviously I can offer text updates and information and clearly the 15 to 30 day outlook on the UKMO website is based on the EC 32 day primarily, but as for graphics and info, that's not online to the public. Cheers, Matt.
  12. MattH
    With signs of the -80c isotherm appearing on the ECM charts out to day 10 near the 20hPa/30hPa mark, I can't help but wonder whether it is just a matter of time before the intense cold associated with the stratospheric vortex filters down and influences the troposphere; http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_t_f240.gif The wave 2 activity is still there and peaks now near day 7, but clearly the trend from a few days ago is for the intensity of this wave to be somewhat less than was original expected. Clearly Ed suggested 750(m') was of worth, it's falling at least 200m short of that right now... http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha2_f168.gif There are still signs of the main vortex at 30hPa becoming more elongated with time and again the ECM out to day 10 continues that trend from previous days; http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30f240.gif As we have seen for the majority of this autumn despite quite potent conditions within the stratosphere the conditions within the troposphere have been far from responsive and as a result we have yet to experience a proper spell of zonal conditions with a major +AO and +NAO pattern sustained for a week or two. The persistence of the EC 32 Day in terms of developing northern blocking is impressive and my experience with this model is that it is more right than wrong and if this general pattern of higher pressure to the NE, N or NW of the UK in some shape or form develops by late November then hat's off to it. However, the continued conditions 'higher up' continue to leave me with a niggling concern in my side that it's going to take time before we see any persistent HLB's becoming established in the coming weeks. Using a rather random analogy, but my thinking is sort of like that game you see at funfairs where there are 10 tin cans stood in a tower and you're given 3 balls to try and knock them all over. This current wave 2 activity is sort of your first ball, but clearly with that you may only knock one or two of the tins over. It may well take the 2nd or even 3rd ball to properly dismantle that tower and to me, I believe, that is what is required in the coming weeks/month. If we don't see an increase in wave activity and some gradual warming then I can't help but think that overall December will be lacking any significant HLB and thus a risk of proper sustained cold weather. As we have found out in the past and last year being a perfect example, patience is a virtue when it comes to the stratosphere but I just hope, from a cold lovers point of view, that we don't have to wait until the end of January or early February to get a real risk of something of worth. Clearly there have and continue to be some well documented "variables" that point towards a colder than average winter, I just hope that the stratosphere is peaking early and will be 'knocked off its perch' within the next month or so, as it's going to take some major 'events' to reverse the conditions which are currently present at and above 30hPa in particular Regards to all, Matt.
  13. MattH
    I wonder if the 12Z GFS Control run is on to something beyond the 22nd? haha http://pbs.twimg.com/media/A7HtcpnCYAAJuBX.png:large M.
  14. MattH
    This is just for the record really for future reference and verification, but I have just spotted that the EUROSIP model which I have access to, has been 'added to' for the October update. This seasonal model did take the ECMWF, Met Office and Meteo-France seasonal models/data into consideration to come up with the usual MSLP anoms and the likes for the coming months. However, I have just noticed that it has also been extended out to 3 months instead of just 2. Not only that an addition has been made and it now, allegedly, takes into consideration to the NCEP. To what extent I don't know at this stage, but this is definitely an addition. For the record, this October update is signalling a weak signal for higher pressure to the N and NW of the UK with a +ve 500mb height anom, again to the N or NW of the UK through the winter with temperatures -0.5C to -1C below average. This is in conflict with the ECMWF seasonal model with the last update, as I have previously stated, showing a more zonal and 'typical' UK winter pattern which is essentially +NAO. Be interesting to follow this up with the November update in due course... M.
  15. MattH
    Just a quick one, but the GFS 30hPa chart on the Netweather site continue to provide a far more promising outlook beyond the 21st of November in particular, especially if you compare; this... - http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121107/00/372/npst30.png with this - http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121107/00/57/npst30.png Perhaps just 'something and nothing', but time'll tell. Could class this post as clutching at straws as well given the variety of other forecast data. M.
  16. MattH
    Without sounding like a stuck record, I do believe we really are in unknown territory, so-to-speak, so far this season. From the charts and information I keep looking at, there continues to be a major split down the middle in terms of how it may go. I did produce a blog last week stating that I thought the cold upper strat temps would have an impact on the troposphere with time and personally I believe that is the way it will go. Clearly, compared with some in this thread, I am not that knowledgeable about the subject in question. That being said, in my opinion, I find the ECM 32 outcome hard to imagine by the end of November and into early December without a major re-shuffle of the 'cards'. At the moment at least, there are a lot of factors stacked against a progression towards more blocked conditions by the start of December and whilst I do have faith in the ECMWF model, that 4 week block is always subject to weekly changes simply because it is 4 weeks away etc. I have a feeling this coming winter may well end up noteworthy, but it'll take time. It won't be an 09/10 style setup, or not going off what is developing at the moment. Clearly, and again, there are many factors which point towards the potential development of more blocked conditions and a greater risk of cold outbreaks, but I can't help think now that if this is to happen this winter it may well be during the latter half of December or into January. I think this idea has been echoed in some previous posts as well. As ever not having a clear-cut outcome/idea at this stage is certainly making for an interesting time, albeit frustrating, and in a way we could all end up being wrong, but at the moment my money is on a zonal spell developing and persisting through the end of November and well into December, before potential changes then take place as December progresses. Regards to all. Matt.
  17. MattH
    The latest ECM 32 day model is similar to the previous runs which keeps low pressure dominant across the UK or to the NW for the foreseeable future. The primary difference is it is signalling a more pronounced area of higher pressure across E Europe which as a result allows for the potential development of milder S or SW'lies at times with temperatures around the middle of the month potentially slightly above average. However and importantly, the final block which now takes us into the opening week of December maintains a trend for pressure to become lower to the south of the UK, whilst pressure becomes higher to the north, essentially creating a -NAO pattern and a signal for temperatures to become below average into early December. That is the reason why if you read the 15 to 30 day update on the UKMO site, they highlight potentially colder conditions long term and it is just to that signal within the ECM 32 day which has been there now consistently, so it'll be interesting to see what happens. The ECM seasonal update will be out on the 8th, I'll comment accordingly, but I wouldn't expect much luck from that model if you are after a blocked, colder pattern as up to present it hasn't signaled it. Cheers, Matt.
  18. MattH
    Could be in the model discussion thread this, so I'll keep it brief, but despite some of the recent ECM 32 day updates, some of the midnight runs in particular towards mid-month look increasingly zonal and with some particularly cold temps developing in and around Greenland and a subsequent risk of the polar vortex setting 'up shop' http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2641.png One to watch... M.
  19. MattH
    It's got a strong signal for low pressure to be over the UK towards mid-month, but this isn't unexpected, but at the same time maintaining a +ve pressure anom to the west of the UK and also perhaps up into Greenland at times. In fact there's the potential threat of a temporary N'ly outbreak next weekend from that kind of pattern which is what it has and is signalling. The signal for later in the month and now just into early December is again for low pressure to become more influential to the south or south-west of the UK with again a signal for a +ve pressure anom to the north or north-east. So in essence, yes, there is consistency from the last update for the end of November to potentially have higher pressure becoming more influential to the N and NE of the UK and with continued little signs of any significant polar vortex/low pressure setting up shop over Greenland. Matt.
  20. MattH
    Yeah, another good set of charts which seems to help summarise the reasons why the conditions across the polar troposphere are as they are and have been and are likely to continue to be as well. Other thing which is interesting is the following two images; http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f240.gif http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=30&forecast=f240&lng=eng Clearly and unfortunately at the far end of the forecast period, but seeing that are similarities between both at the 240hr time frame, in my opinion, gives it a little more credit. But clearly at what has been quite a cold 30hPa level of late, there does seem to be a forecasted region of warming conditions either over or coming out of eastern Russia/Asia. Perhaps, as highlighted above, a mountain torque event which the models are attempting forecast(?). Must admit that mountain torque graphic which does the rounds sometimes, I'm not sure of the website for that, so if someone can let me know in due course that would be appreciated. M.
  21. MattH
    Yeah, good spot that. There is, without question, a distinct 'line' evident approximately around the 40hPa and 30hPa mark in terms of variables pointing towards more promising scenarios beneath this level, but above it the signs are ominous. Must admit those forecast charts from the NOAA website are OK, but they are all individual images. Sometimes it is beneficial to have a loop or be able to see all the images on one page rather than flicking back and forth. I am tempted to get some of the images onto my webspace so they can all be viewed at once as the links to the images look 'static'. Clearly there is a lot images at different heights, so there's no way I can do them all, but may be of worth to do the important levels say 50hPa to 10hPa. Also I have found this link on the well known WeatherOnline website to Ozone prediction from the GFS model. However, the lack of an outline for a landmass or even lat/lon lines, in my opinion, makes the images almost worthless. I'm not sure why they have been setup like this, might be worth an email; http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=ozon&HH=0&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO= Cheers, Matt.
  22. MattH
    It's almost a case of get the event off the ground in the first place and then sit back and wait and see what happens. As you highlight the UK is a tiny island on the grand scheme of things and I think that's where a lot of people trip up. They often believe that if a warming event takes place then in about 2 or 3 weeks (as an example) the UK will be plunged into deep cold and an arctic setup. As you point out clearly, the end result is often the most difficult factor to gauge from what I have learnt along the way. Without question there are many examples of a warming event leading to more blocking and a disrupted polar vortex which, in theory, should lead to a heightened risk of colder weather, but those few hundred miles can make all the difference at times. Referring back to your earlier post, I am sort of baffled by the setup so far this autumn. I use the word baffled lightly, as I understand what is going on, but the lack of a distinct 'path' as yet is most certainly creating conflicting signals. As you highlight perfectly in that particular post if you look above say 30hPa at the moment and especially above 60N it looks pretty grim, particularly when you factor in the current ozone levels, yet there doesn't seem to be any hurry for these more potent cold conditions to penetrate further south. Depending on what the rest of November throws up this autumn is likely to be a particularly 'blocked one' with it most certainly not being a mild, zonal and stormy autumn which can clearly develop across the UK with a succession of lows setting up across the UK. I sort of hope that we don't look back and say, that the blocking arrived or was more dominant through autumn and essentially was present 'to soon'. There are many variables pointing towards a cold and more blocked winter which these have been discussed in depth for weeks now in various shapes and forms and clearly the most recent being the major increase in Eurasion snow cover. Despite these promising and interesting variables people need to keep a broad open mind on the up coming winter. When I say 'people' I clearly mean us lovers of more wintry synoptics as despite these variables, we could still get sucker-punched yet and end up with a zonal mass of mild and muck for the majority of the three winter months. As ever time'll tell, but it remains an almost frustrating wait now to see how the next very important 4 weeks will develop, either 'good' or 'bad'. Regards to all Matt.
  23. MattH
    Apologies, I think this is just a misinterpretation of my comments. What I mean is that the ECM seasonal model is obviously updated once a month and each update is then for the forth coming 4 months. So what I really mean is that the November ECM seasonal update will be the last one that covers Dec, Jan and Feb together. The Dec updated, in early Dec, will then cover Jan to April. So in essence the November update is the last one that captures the winter months before then progressing further. M.
  24. MattH
    I obviously can't post the ECM images but without question I can say the 4th week matches that image you have uploaded near perfect regarding the synoptic pattern. As you say it's got to happen yet and subsequent updates will be interesting. Still seems as though 'we' are in limbo land so to speak regarding early winter. Still some very interesting and noteworthy variables evident but in my opinion we are none the wiser on early winter just yet but here's hoping your CW prediction becomes reality!... Cheers. PS: The ECM seasonal model will be updated on the 8th November. Up to present this model has not signalled a cold, more blocked winter but a milder more zonal winter, so this final update will be interesting in 9 days or so.
  25. MattH
    Apologies, yeah I mean Nov 10 in relation the latter half of the month in terms of similar synoptics. The ECM 32 has quite a low consistency of late which is always a concern but it'll be very interesting to follow further updates and again the distinct lack of a polar vortex is clearly evident. Matt.
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