Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

MattH

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    526

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    6

 Content Type 

Everything posted by MattH

  1. MattH
    The 00z UKMO model is very interesting indeed upstream; http://www.meteociel.eu/ukmo/run/UN120-21.GIF?03-06 http://www.meteociel.eu/ukmo/run/UN144-21.GIF?03-06 In accordance with some of the dicussions on the Stratospheric Warming thread mind, it does seem highly unlikely for northern blocking to occur, but there is definitely a trend evident within some of the global models and the EC ENS members as well for the risk of a more substantial block to the W and perhaps NW over Greenland towards next weekend... M.
  2. MattH
    In conjunction with yesterday's brilliant 00Z GEM model and also some of the EC ENS members, the 00Z UKMO model is of interest this morning; http://www.meteociel.eu/ukmo/run/UN120-21.GIF?03-06 http://www.meteociel.eu/ukmo/run/UN144-21.GIF?03-06 Some interesting developments there... M.
  3. MattH
    Indeed, quite a stonking 00Z GFS Det run, an outlier at times mind in relation to it's overal ensemble members, but even then there is still some good member agreement... eg; http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png M.
  4. MattH
    Without sounding like stealing your thunder, this is exactly what I meant, but didn't have the time to advance in as much detail as you have and usually do... The scenario is far from unexpected and clearly as been discussed in detail here nothing has and will likely change now for the majority of December. Granted as with the coming 7 days if you get a sharp enough trough to the E of the UK or perhaps right over the UK and slight ridging to the W then temporary colder incursions are possible, but the likes of anything substantial look highly unlikely for December. The latest EC 32 is far from inspiring either and essentially paints a "standard" December month... I've spoke with good'ol Terry Scholey today as well and he's steadfast in thinking that whilst the long term remains highly uncertain, he also feels that the middle and latter half of the winter could well the the coldest, but La Nina may well be an offset. Overall a very difficult winter to forecast and I still believe that a rapid and dramatic change will materialise into January either to be honest. Perhaps you would imagine after such intense cold over the pole things would eventually change and whilst no doubt this is a possibility, not matter how small the odds, it may well not either, especially if the QBO remains easterly through the majority of the winter... Overall IMO 2011 has to go and will no doubt go down as one of the most boring years weather wise without question. Perhaps others may disagree given regional variability but from January to December there's been a distinct lack of "nothingness" this year to be honest and the again I do believe we have been spoilt almost given the last 2 winters to start with... Matt.
  5. MattH
    Yeah unfortunately, whilst I do like Liam (Dutton) as a good all round forecaster to be classed as the 'front runner' for this setup is a shame as it really is a poor setup they have got. The blocky-shaped design to the website is horrific and looks more akin to days of 28.8kb dial up internet web pages!... I guess it's a work in progress as it all seems to new, but still to go live with this isn't good! M.
  6. MattH
    Heck of a run from the GEM this morning, unlikely mind given the environmental conditions at higher latitudes... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1681.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1921.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif Somehow it splits the PV into two primary areas, one across NE Canada and the other across Scandinavia. This then allows for the 'mobile train' to be shut off and as a result ridging within the North Atlantic is sustained in a far greater way than any of the other models show. A very interesting set of charts and a shame there is no other support for it, as it would introduce a much greater threat of more sustained colder weather across the UK and essentially signal at least a temporary break in the zonal pattern, but again given stratrospheric temperatures and the likes, the PV is extremely strong at the moment and I don't think it will be "broke" as easily as the GEM is showing. Slim risk, but for us coldies a nice set of charts to see none-the-less.
  7. MattH
    The latest ECM 32 day paints a poor picture for December or at least 2/3 of it. The trend evident from the last update end of the last week continues today and that is for high pressure to be dominant to the west or southwest and for low pressure to be dominant to the north or northeast. There is a trend as well for high pressure to become more influential towards mid-month and actually build into parts of the uk, but it builds in from the west or southwest and would never lead to any substantial cold weather. The ECM MJO forecast as well out to 20 days continues to show good agreement for a weak phase 4/5 event before becoming potentially near neutral towards day 20. No doubt a scenario which would not help to change the broader pattern in any way. It sure does look like being overall a very bland and a more "typical" December across the uk this year and I certainly won't be putting money on a white Christmas!... As a few have mentioned on here if any cold or marked change in Synoptics is likely to take place then it would seem that late Dec or Jan will be best, but clearly that's a long way off. Matt
  8. MattH
    These websites have been highlighted before,but just to re-cap from what I have seen the following are probably the best data sources in terms of analysing conditions of the stratosphere; http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/index.html#monit_nh http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php?alert=1&lng=eng Some of the information on here not even i've come across to be honest, like the E-P Flux for example, whilst some of the other information is straightforward. If these two sites are constantly used and sourced with some background information as to what some of the charts are showing then this should hopefully help peoples understanding more of what the charts are showing. In summary from what i've had a look through is that the cold temps across the pole in general aren't going anywhere time soon. Despite that slight decrease in zonal winds, the overal temperatures are likely to remain below averages into early Dec. It's going to take time and patience by the looks to get out this current 'setup' before we are at a greater risk of surface conditions changing to anything other than a general zonal pattern. Cheers, Matt.
  9. MattH
    Agreed. I post general model comments on TWO, but they don't have a thread directed to more indepth discussions unlike this one for example, the primary reason I thought I'd get a bit more involved. It would be good if this particularly thread was more active, as it seems that bar the odd post here and there a few days can go by without any proper analysis. There's always something to be learnt and discussed within meteorology, take this weekends low passing to the N of the UK for example. There's a hell of a lot 'ingredients' required for such a low which could lead to some really good indepth discussions regarding what the models are showing... M.
  10. MattH
    Hey all... Interesting one this, well sort of, as the latest EC 32 day update (as of Tue) was signalling that towards the middle of December pressure is forecast to rise with a +ve pressure anom evident to the W of the UK. Clearly in what specific state is anyones guess, but an interesting comparison. It should be noted as well that there have been several individual EC ENS members which have signalled a temporary ridge to the W and N'ly over the UK. Generally outlier members overall, but still they have been evident. Clearly a very unsettled and increasingly colder, near seasonal, outlook is forecast over the next 7 to 10 days at least. There is little sign for a change from this pattern, so all 'coldies' can hope for is this kind of setup for a day or two before the next low breaks down the ridge etc. A far cry from this time last year, but the reasons why have and continue to be discussed in great quality and quantity within the 'statospheric warming' thread and also the more significant model analysis thread (sorry can't remember its actual name!). Cheers, Matt.
  11. MattH
    No there isn't. The more 'advanced' pieces of data are a 500hPa anomal outlook and then a direct look at the MJO, which does also advance on to Hovmoller diagrams of veloticity at 200hPa, olr and zonal wind at 850hPa. To a certain extent in terms of stratospheric data there's probably more information actually free on the net to be honest in relation to some of those weblinks you have posted in the past. All that aside, there's still an awesome amount of data which isn't available for free. M.
  12. MattH
    Yeah I have access to the full ECM suite from the 32 day, seasonal forecast and the usual deterministic and ensembles etc... I'll take a look when I can. Cheers, Matt
  13. MattH
    This was the link, found it finally... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/index.primjo.html An interesting link that and it would seem that some of the ECM info is available on that site which isn't available elsewhere apart from within their restricted area in terms of MJO info... Given all the variable recently discussed, certainly looks as though we are stuck in this more zonal/Atlantic pattern for some time... M.
  14. MattH
    Just one quick question, which you may be able to answer, or find!...I spotted somewhere in one of these threads a link to some of the ECM data including the MJO forecast which was from the NCEP site I think, however I can't find the damn post now for some reason. I was interested to know whether this was the same ECM data which I have access through work, including the EC 32 day information etc. I look forward to joining in!... Cheers, Matt.
  15. MattH
    Morning all... Just a quick post, but i've been reading through some of these more 'advanced' threads for a while and even I have learnt a few additional things myself!. I believe some of these topics are brilliant with some really excellent pieces of information evident. More often than not, these kinds of discussion are often restricted to US weather forums, but breaking away from that and discussing these kinds of scenarios in relation to how they can affect the weather in the UK is again, excellent and no doubt many are learning a lot from what is, to be honest, is a complex area of meteorology and the likes!... I look forward to reading and perhaps contributing where applicable... Cheers, Matt.
×
×
  • Create New...