Dignity

As someone who works in emergency response for a local authority, I can safely say that certainly was a busy night shift! Trees down all over Dundee, lot of debris around and lots of power cuts. Probably bit more damage to come in the light of day and people can assess how bad it's been. I've spent most of the night doing safety check on vulnerable people so I'm off to my bed and hopefully wake up to good news that it's not been as bad as I think it may have been.

So glad I've been on nights last two days. All the tooing and froing between the models with their output just looks like exploration of the envelope in which things will develop over the next 10 days. Very nice to skip multiple pages and have a look at a few posts and the models being fairly steady in what's to come. Will my week off next week be a proper snowfest or just an enjoyable amount of snow

Even anywhere between those two outcomes would be just fine. Heck I'd probably be happy with the ECM as it stood as the progression after would be interesting. Let's get this all into the reliable and rejoice hopefully!

Sub Polar Low?

Addressing the models variations, you get the idea there's a couple of factors which are presenting themselves which are triggering more spread in the ensembles. ECM has had a bit of a wobble, GFS before it, looks linked to N.Pacific and Arctic heights affecting how the GH develops. Bit of an IMBY perspective here but I'm east coast of Scotland and I'm fairly confident that I'll get a dump of snow in the next couple of weeks. The Thames streamer for tomorrow looks interesting for the majority of population down that way. At least it's going to be dry bright and cold for a while, everyone can do with that for now, next week up for grabs in terms of how cold and snowy it will get.

I'm not sure tbh if a GH will develop from that Hopefully it all works out well for us coldies in the end.

No models to show, just a feeling in the water. Start a new role on the 8th and lumped in with night shifts the first week. Will I be crunching through thick frost or snow on the way to work going by the output today

A very quick skim of a study there, does a wave 3 initiate more Atlantic blocking? https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/74/5/jas-d-16-0065.1.xml

Cheers that what I was wondering if they were misidentified nacreous clouds, or are they the same thing? I've had a horrific migraine today so looking out the window or being out and about hasn't been an option

As others have alluded to, it shows a displacement of the strat vortex if anything. Interesting they were sighted over this neck of the woods. I seen someone mention these on twitter, I've only ever seen them once and wanted to go have another look but there was no further detail on the sighting sadly.

Heights building towards Iceland introducing a northerly flow alongside the trough digging in to the north east. Bit of a shaky and weak east Atlantic area of high pressure which would easily get moved by other connections. I think

This has been my thoughts on the modelling all along. I didn't think the British Isles would get some huge polar plunge come down but more colder PM shots reloading colder with time. The more cold coming down from NNW/N will modify the sea temps further with each encroaching shot getting the temps further down inland. Still a lot to play for. Might be location bias here but as someone on the east coast of Scotland I'm fairly happy with my chances of a white Christmas. Folk living in Cornwall and the south east may not be as happy though!

Going back to my previous post the other day, it looked to me like this would be the evolution the models would take, nothing spectacularly cold but chilly enough PM shots. Nice to see other models falling in line now.

Lot of doom mongering going on about these charts. Now I'm no way near experienced as some, and I keep myself very quiet in here. But looking at all the options being presented in FI, there's cause for concern and cause for hope. My read of it all says, not as mild as some would want, not as cold as some wish for but with great chances of some decent PM cold shots over Christmas week and getting colder and snowier after. Next ten days will be much the same as the last couple then it's going to shape up. Wednesday and Thursday charts will bring everything into a more clearer view. I'm a realistic coldie and don't doubt there's something brewing here. This evolution from the GFS and the preceding frames before it are interesting me for how things shape up in the next 10 days...

Is this GFS sniffing out the start of the trend way out before the flip flopping happens? Would be lovely if it verifies!