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Dignity
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Posts posted by Dignity
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So glad I've been on nights last two days.
All the tooing and froing between the models with their output just looks like exploration of the envelope in which things will develop over the next 10 days.
Very nice to skip multiple pages and have a look at a few posts and the models being fairly steady in what's to come.
Will my week off next week be a proper snowfest or just an enjoyable amount of snow
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Just now, MJB said:
Even anywhere between those two outcomes would be just fine. Heck I'd probably be happy with the ECM as it stood as the progression after would be interesting.
Let's get this all into the reliable and rejoice hopefully!
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:
If you look back through the run then you’ll see a kink in the isobars around day 9. That becomes a shortwave which eventually develops into the system that trundles towards Scotland
it’s not what I would consider a polar low but between us, we’ve managed to derail the thread
Sub Polar Low?
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Addressing the models variations, you get the idea there's a couple of factors which are presenting themselves which are triggering more spread in the ensembles.
ECM has had a bit of a wobble, GFS before it, looks linked to N.Pacific and Arctic heights affecting how the GH develops.
Bit of an IMBY perspective here but I'm east coast of Scotland and I'm fairly confident that I'll get a dump of snow in the next couple of weeks.
The Thames streamer for tomorrow looks interesting for the majority of population down that way.
At least it's going to be dry bright and cold for a while, everyone can do with that for now, next week up for grabs in terms of how cold and snowy it will get.
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1 minute ago, Purga said:
The anomaly chart below shows a remarkable pointer to a Greenland High developing if ever tehere was one!
I'm not sure tbh if a GH will develop from that
Hopefully it all works out well for us coldies in the end.
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No models to show, just a feeling in the water.
Start a new role on the 8th and lumped in with night shifts the first week.
Will I be crunching through thick frost or snow on the way to work going by the output today
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2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
In case the vortex needed anymore destroying, a fairly rare wave-3 triple appears to be coming up on the forecasts now for the mid Troposphere and should connect up. If that comes off then we would probably have the best chance for the vortex to be completely destroyed and the best chance for a good Trop response to occur.
A very quick skim of a study there, does a wave 3 initiate more Atlantic blocking?
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/74/5/jas-d-16-0065.1.xml
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8 minutes ago, Norrance said:
If those are the similar to nacreous clouds they have been visible both yesterday afternoon and today in Dundee.
Cheers that what I was wondering if they were misidentified nacreous clouds, or are they the same thing?
I've had a horrific migraine today so looking out the window or being out and about hasn't been an option
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3 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
From Spaceweather.
Three days in a row PSCs have been sighted in Norway and Sweden.
Widely considered to be the most beautiful clouds on Earth, polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are rare. Earth's stratosphere is very dry and, normally, it has no clouds at all. PSCs form when the temperature in the Arctic stratosphere drops to a staggeringly-low -85 C. Then, and only then, can widely-spaced water molecules begin to coalesce into tiny ice crystals. High-altitude sunlight shining through the crystals creates intense iridescent colors that rival auroras.
During a typical Arctic winter, PSCs appear no more than a handful of times, and the first sightings usually come in January. This week's apparition marks an early start, and may herald many more PSCs to come.
So would a SSW event be affected by this either way? Is it a precursor or dampener?
BFTP
As others have alluded to, it shows a displacement of the strat vortex if anything. Interesting they were sighted over this neck of the woods.
I seen someone mention these on twitter, I've only ever seen them once and wanted to go have another look but there was no further detail on the sighting sadly.
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8 minutes ago, TillyS said:
I've found the one at T240 which I also posted: yours being the whole NH version.
You also posted this chart which is T216 but without any explanation.Can you expand please, patiently and gently as to why this chart was interesting for cold aspirants?
As a general point I do find it a little confusing when people post charts, sometimes with emojis, but no commentary on why the rest of us are supposed to sit up. For newbies it’s especially confusing sometimes. Some sort of explanation is really helpful, especially when it’s the whole northern hemisphere chart. It’s bad enough trying to pick out the UK on that, let alone the apparent signals for cold
Heights building towards Iceland introducing a northerly flow alongside the trough digging in to the north east.
Bit of a shaky and weak east Atlantic area of high pressure which would easily get moved by other connections.
I think
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11 minutes ago, Cambrian said:
Focusing on the more reliable timeframe, the 0z UKMO gives a balanced take to my eye on the developments over the next week or so in the run-up to Christmas Eve at day 7.
High pressure to the west peaks at 1050mb at day 4, a remarkably high surface pressure for an Atlantic cell at any time of the year. By day 7, it’s pushed a long way southeast to the east of the Azores and is much weaker, at 1030mb.
This movement is being driven by the same core development that we’ve watched come in from the day 10+ timeframe, now at days 4-7, namely the relocation and reorientation of the PV away from northeast Canada and Greenland to Scandinavia.
This north-south orientation of the polar trough is the core development that opens the door to incursions of much colder air from the northwest and north, a good push at day 6 and another looking likely just beyond the run heading into Christmas itself.
These feeds from the northwest will be moisture-laden and potentially rich in spawning features. There is one at day 4 / 5 to the southwest of Iceland, that swings southeast, bringing that colder air south at day 6, and another ready in the wings at day 7, looking like it has our name on it, for bringing the colder air wrapped around it our way.
These blasts of cold air will find it easier to make southward progress as time goes by, due to the steady encroachment of notably colder air much further south over the western Atlantic later in the week.
For the UK and Ireland, precise timings, how cold and how far south will be firmed up over the next few days, which will make for very interesting viewing. Plenty to look out for, slight variations either way on this core theme to keep us on our toes and anything beyond day 7 to be taken with a huge dose of salt.
And no doubt about it, with the reorientation of the PV and the steady southward movement of the polar front through the North Atlantic, this is a fascinating approach to Christmas, much more than is so very often the case.
This has been my thoughts on the modelling all along. I didn't think the British Isles would get some huge polar plunge come down but more colder PM shots reloading colder with time. The more cold coming down from NNW/N will modify the sea temps further with each encroaching shot getting the temps further down inland.
Still a lot to play for. Might be location bias here but as someone on the east coast of Scotland I'm fairly happy with my chances of a white Christmas.
Folk living in Cornwall and the south east may not be as happy though!
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Going back to my previous post the other day, it looked to me like this would be the evolution the models would take, nothing spectacularly cold but chilly enough PM shots. Nice to see other models falling in line now.
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Lot of doom mongering going on about these charts. Now I'm no way near experienced as some, and I keep myself very quiet in here.
But looking at all the options being presented in FI, there's cause for concern and cause for hope.
My read of it all says, not as mild as some would want, not as cold as some wish for but with great chances of some decent PM cold shots over Christmas week and getting colder and snowier after.
Next ten days will be much the same as the last couple then it's going to shape up. Wednesday and Thursday charts will bring everything into a more clearer view.
I'm a realistic coldie and don't doubt there's something brewing here.
This evolution from the GFS and the preceding frames before it are interesting me for how things shape up in the next 10 days...
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Is this GFS sniffing out the start of the trend way out before the flip flopping happens?
Would be lovely if it verifies!
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11 minutes ago, Dundeeguy said:
Out of nowhere this morning snow has popped up
A man of culture I see, located your weather app on the promised land!
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Super hard frost here this morning that's getting reinforced with a smattering of the white stuff. Was surprised to see the snow come on last 10 minutes. Definitely didn't show up in any forecast for me.
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Well, that's a light dusting of snow here that definitely wasn't modelled this morning! (Dundee, 139m ASL)
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That GFS hurricane looks so bad it might just come up.
With the whole set up just now not making much sense (figuratively) then something as insane as that might just happen.
Would be more wet and wild than snow though no? Well on one side of it anyways.
Imagine if it does verify though
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10 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:
A lot of people asking about sea surface temperatures and associated impacts - I've shown these charts before but I'll go over ECMWF's sea surface temperature forecasts. We have two modes - absolute SSTs and anomalies. We're more interested in anomalies here, so those are the charts I'll be showing. It will be a North Atlantic view since that is the area that has the most impact on our weather.
Here's today's situation. If the scale is too small to read, white is near normal, green-blue-purple- is increasingly below average, and yellow-orange-red is increasingly above average.
Obviously there's a lot on this chart, but things that are apparent to me, for some of our major weather regimes:
- Westerlies are near normal to slightly below average
- North to north-westerlies will likely be somewhat milder than normal
- North easterlies are probably the best chance to minimise modification - less sea to traverse and quite a lot of white areas (no anomaly)
- Long-fetch southwesterlies are likely to be extremely mild - waters near the Azores are around 2C warmer than usual.
So, that's why forecasting December will be tough overall temperature wise - as long as this spell continues it'll likely remain below average, but if we do flip to south-westerlies we're in a position to get temperatures well into double figures under the right circumstances. A lot will depend on how long the current spell lasts, and if it goes back to 'ordinary' westerlies afterwards or long-fetch south-westerlies.
Looking further ahead, here are the charts at T+120, T+240, and T+360:
The progression here is as others have been speculating - cold easterlies to north-easterlies gradually cooling down the ocean off the east coast, which should improve snow prospects later in the winter. Even going somewhat below average on SSTs in coastal areas near East Anglia and near NE Scotland at this point. Further afield, we still have those exceptionally warm waters to our far south-west.
So, a difficult one to forecast. Easterlies will be cold from December onwards if this is right, with little modification, but south-westerlies under the right circumstances could be absurdly mild. It will therefore come down to weather patterns - it could be a very cold December, or very mild, or anything in between. Uncertainty will definitely be higher than normal.
This is what I had been looking at and got me pondering about cold shot reloads as it were. I think based on the SSTs alone we could be in for something quite interesting developing over the course of the next few weeks.
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Been a while since I posted. No charts to show here but a point I've been dwelling on for a while.
If this current episode of below normal temps across NW Europe starts to become more entrenched, the moderating factor of the North Sea SSTs become so much less of a chokehold on modulating the continental air coming across.
With the reload of the MJO coming into mid month, and assuming the cold pool to our NE maintains for a while longer, could we see a situation where a "marginal" cold spell for the British Isles starts to err into a more colder/snowier situation?
I've only the most limited of reads on charts etc and this is a bit of a point I'm putting out for debate by more experienced forum members.
Just an interesting train of thought I've got going on about where the evolution of this winter might go
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9 minutes ago, TEITS said:
Only output im confident of is the possible snow moving S during Monday night/Tues.
Apart from this the difference in the 0Z & 12Z UKMO is making me think its pointless looking beyond Tues. A special mention to our members in Scotland though is the chances of remaining cold throughout is looking more likely than I previously thought,
I shall take this though.
Ah yes we get it freezing up here and none of the white gold!
Not a trade off I want...
To keep it model related, I'm on the east coast of Scotland and a lot of the output has shown precipitation coming down from a cold northerly next couple of days. I would think I'm in with a chance at least.
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26 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Appreciate the mention Si
Plenty of mega enticing output which will keep increasing IMO, I've posted the majority of my thoughts for the next 2-3 weeks throughout my recent posts though one biggy I keep thinking is the initial sight-setting to the East&NorthEast is most likely purely MJO driven which gives us huge opportunities that any SSW related downwelling from strat>trop could either enhance or provide further blocking + cold conditions as I believe the typical period for the warmings fully making it to surface patterns averages anywhere upto 4 weeks unless it's a QTR (quick tropospheric response) I've not researched QTRs fully yet tho I think 2009 was in that group.
I'm just a complete amatuer Dundonian but seeing a lot going on here that's suggesting to me this colder spell will hit, a wee lull and then a big smashing from the trop downwelling.
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1 minute ago, Don said:
At least you have the Highlands not so far away, which up until now at least have avoided the dross, most other parts of the UK have endured!
Last couple of days east coast of Scotland has gotten bitter again. Looking to the models for an easterly now though!
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Not sure there was much in the modelling for today regarding a marginal snow dump! Getting a fair whack of snow falling on the east coast of Scotland after lows of -3 last night. Best bit of snow falling so far this festive season.
Just goes to show even if the models aren't calling it localised conditions can trump meta conditions.
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Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
As someone who works in emergency response for a local authority, I can safely say that certainly was a busy night shift!
Trees down all over Dundee, lot of debris around and lots of power cuts. Probably bit more damage to come in the light of day and people can assess how bad it's been.
I've spent most of the night doing safety check on vulnerable people so I'm off to my bed and hopefully wake up to good news that it's not been as bad as I think it may have been.