CryoraptorA303

14.5c here in West Kent. Our temperatures have been seriously muted this month for one reason or another compared to nearby areas.

I honestly much prefer the mild climate of the SW to here. Your average summer is perfect for me. Winter being so mild and wet is a bit of a downside, but oh well, sacrifices have to be made. Soon the east coast's average winter will be mild and wet with 10-12c average highs like yours anyway (and London looks like its basically already there), so it won't make much of a difference in the long run. If you can't see that I'm obviously exaggerating for comedic effect, I don't really know what to say to you.

Indeed we do. We get a few hot Aprils (2007, 2011, and 2020; you can probably add 2018 and 2019 to that list too if you don't count the schizophrenic behaviour) and then expect every April to be like that.

Of course, we have the obligatory "why isn't it 25c every day yet, I thought April was a warm month" posts as always. Actually, the temperature has been very average for the most part with only a few slightly-below average days. I implore you to look up what your average April temperature actually is; I guarantee it will be lower than your expectations. The temperature isn't really the unusual part about this spring so far. The rain here has been a lot more sporadic than in March; one day it'll be pouring down, next day it's crystal clear and warm again, as opposed to March where it was drizzly but it was like that almost all the time. It would appear to be reflecting much less stable atmospheric conditions due to SSW some weeks ago. The best way to describe this spring is that it's a lot more like a normal autumn: Wet, overcast and free of major temperature swings; unlike what some will claim here, temperatures have hovered around average for an unusually long time, which is what you would expect from overcast conditions, the likes of which are a lot more common in autumn. I suspect that we will see a rapid warmup later on in May; this year doesn't seem to be one for moderation. We will probably go straight from overcast and unremarkable temperatures to harsh sun, bone dry and hot. Don't expect any moderate periods this year, we're going to swing from one extreme to the other. Regarding the forecast changing from warm and sunny to more rain and low-teens activity, as it turns out, weather is unpredictable. If you think that weather forecasts for more than a few days in advance should remain static, I can't really help you.

People do. It doesn't help that by the end of the month we're at mid-September insolation with longer days than nights, yet we're averaging a full 7c below mid-September in temperature (which makes the difference between warm and cold to a lot of people) due to seasonal lag. I think the mental aspect of high Sun = warmth misleads a lot of people into expecting a serious warmup in March rather than treating it as the exception, and then complaining when it's still in the low teens, even though that's what we would expect from a normal March. Only the most exceptional Marches have the sort of conditions that people expect it to; in my lifetime there's only been March 2012 and March 2011 not far behind it. Aside from that, you can somewhat reliably expect a warm spell towards the end that brings us into the high teens for a few days, but that's about it. Even in April, it's perfectly acceptable to go into the high single digits for a few days in the beginning and it happens in more years than not. I'm surprised you mention last March. While it definitely was a warmer March than some and had that warm spell in the second half of the month, it really wasn't much out of the ordinary. Even then, expecting every March to be like 2022 as a default is going to leave you disappointed a lot of the time. Sometimes a 2013 or 2018 is going to happen given the margin of error (although 2018 later became a disaster/dream depending on how you view the heat and dryness). The point being I suppose, this March is really nothing out of the ordinary and if anything is one of the more average Marches in my lifetime, temperature-wise. Precipitation wise, this is definitely one of the more unusual ones (although it doesn't seem to be hitting anywhere near as hard as some runs were suggesting... or is the average March really that dry?). Okay, two things, one a direct response and the other a concession. First off, I have never claimed that 10c is 'warm'. It's obviously not. Of course at that temperature it all depends on sunlight, humidity, wind, etc. An overcast, windy day in December at 10c is going to feel significantly more chilly than a sunny, gentle day in April at 10c. E.g. in March 2020 I remember going out in a t-shirt in 10-11c weather because of the bright sunshine at the time, while in January I needed a jacket to go out in 12-13c overcast, windy conditions and the chill in the air was unpleasant. My claim is that 10c can't really be described as "cold" weather, and its not unseasonable either. Further into April, maybe, but 10c in the middle of March is bang on average for most places; even London's average sits at 11c at this point of the year. Single digits in March are completely normal and are going to happen in all but the most exceptional of years. In fact they're going to happen in April more often than not. We started the month off below average and had a few chilly days, yes, fair enough, if you hate the cold complain about them, and if you're up north and have been in the middle of snow (which is still normal for March all things considered), complain about that. But if you're down south where the worst we had was a few frosty mornings and a dusting of snow which lasted a grand total of 4 hours if you're lucky, and now we've gone up to bang on, if not even a little above average and seem to be staying there for the duration, I'm sorry but that really doesn't come off as unseasonable to me. People need to lower their expectations for the fourth coldest month in the year. The way some people are talking you'd think it was May already. But I will take this opportunity to apologise to anyone who I've directly or indirectly told to go somewhere else where this sort of heat is the norm, or otherwise insulted. I would simply like some conscience that these heatwaves aren't just 'a bit of warm weather' and are seriously damaging to nature and the vulnerable. Enjoy your heat responsibly guys. I guess this has all come out because of people complaining about the recent weather. Of course, I complained about February being too warm, so it may come off as hypocritical, but bear in mind that the second half of February was unusually warm for February and was heading for a really early spring. There's that vs wow this March has been really cold, well no it hasn't really has it. Your expectations of the fourth coldest month are way too high vs the reality of the situation. You'll notice I haven't said anything about the (larger) number of people commenting about the overcast conditions; that's because it really is quite overcast for March. That's the part I don't dispute, it is very autumn-like for the opposite season. March is supposed to be among the driest, sunniest months, so that part is the abnormal one. Moaning about the temperature is, imo, barking up the wrong tree.

Totally agree. People seem to have this expectation that we should be seeing 18c or higher every day as soon as we're a few days into March, and anything lower is unseasonably cold. The reality is, the average high in London on March 31st is 12c, and right now it's closer to 11c. It's completely acceptable for March to have a wintry bite to it, and I can name at least two in my lifetime that had far colder conditions than this. April is the month to start getting excited for spring warmth, if you're into that. If you go into March with the expectation of average May weather, you are going to be disappointed in all but the most exceptional of years. For me the forecasted mild spell with exceptionally average temperatures for the rest of March is more than enough. I don't really want to see regular highs of 16c or more before April.

Ok, maybe one day at 20c isn't so bad... But just one day, ok? We can leave the 20+c for days at a time until at least the end of April right?

A bit trying? My sleep is already fragile; in last year's extreme heat I started to become highly irritable and agitated due to sleep deprivation. By August with the Tmin consistently high and days staying quite hot I was really struggling. The sort of summer we had last year isn't just a bit trying, it's outright dangerous to people who have trouble cooling themselves down. I have a very fast metabolism and as such produce a lot of body heat. I really struggle to stay cool after about 28c. Anything more than 32c is unbearable heat to me. I've had the window open in the day all year mate, apart from when it was truly freezing in December. I have fish tanks in my house so the air can get really humid, I need a bit of fresh air.

Well with all due respect, you're just wrong on this one. This country is an oceanic archipelago and doesn't normally experience extreme temperatures. When it does, it causes an environmental disaster, Mr. "Sunny76". Do you know what else happened in 1976? A severe drought due to the extreme temperatures. This is happening more and more due to climate change, except now heatwaves are maxing out in the high-30s or as last year showed us, 40c. Wildlife surveys have shown consistent declines in that year due to the extreme heat and drought. The more this keeps happening without a sufficient recovery period, the worse the damage to our ecosystems will be. If you want every year to be 1976, sorry but you're in the wrong place. Go somewhere where 1976 is the norm and the ecosystem is adapted to those conditions, or stop complaining about this archipelago's "cold" weather. You want cold weather? Go to Scandinavia, or Siberia, or Canada. That's what cold weather looks like. We very rarely have truly cold weather in this part of the world, even without climate change completely eliminating what actual winter we did have most of the time. As for people suffering due to the cold, I understand that right now times are tough and some may be having to choose between heating their homes or eating, especially in December when we did have actual cold weather for a decent amount of time, but this winter as whole has not been especially cold at all, with the second half of December and first half of January being very mild, and then February being more like a normal March. As for others, I won't name anyone, but the average high on March 13th in London is 10c. The weather we're experiencing is not particularly cold for March at all. There have been way colder Marches in my lifetime, which is probably considerably shorter than some on here. People need to stop being dramatic about the "cold" weather. This is completely normal and acceptable for March. We're missing the point here; the exceptional thing about this March is how overcast it's been.

Quite a nice day, yes. Seems like the Sun wanted it to be 16-18c while the wind wanted freezing. Very interesting weather going on right now.

I think I got heat stroke just from reading this :D I can't tolerate central heating, gives me a migraine. I barely need it with the average winter these days anyway. If it does get cold like in December I just put a jacket on, problem solved. In the last few winters I think I've had the fan on more times than the heating.

Well, the average high in London isn't 20c until June 15th. A period from late April until that date with consistent highs of 20c or more would be abnormally warm. Temperatures consistently in the 20s is summer weather in this country (and quite warm summer weather once you're far enough up north). If you're hoping for spring after mid-April to have average summer conditions, you're going to be disappointed in the majority of years (although increasingly less of them as we go through this century). After about 16c I find it very hard to register any sort of cold at all. Anything above 18c starts to feel really warm to me, and once you're above 22c I'm starting to feel hot. This may just be down to me being unusually sensitive to heat though.

Let's not talk about 20c+ yet (let alone 30c)... could we maybe compromise on 16-18c?

Some very gusty Autumn-like weather here today; even got a bit of unsettled sunshine for a while. Sunday and Monday are looking to be quite mild. I'm quite enjoying it to be honest after the February we've had. I've always been impartial to a bit of unsettled weather.

Oh I see what you're saying. That's fair enough. Apologies for my remark.

Ah I suppose that's why our winters are getting more extreme... oh, wait, they aren't. They're actually getting milder. Oops. That... doesn't make any sense. Elon Musk is the wealthiest man on the planet, yet he's a complete cretin.

Good for you. Meanwhile the meteorologists and climatologists of the world who know what they're talking about will continue to use them to predict long-term trends.

They might not be 100% accurate, but they shouldn't be dismissed out of hand either. That's just as bad as taking the current summer forecast and suggesting that since it's currently worse than last year's forecast was in March, we can expect to see 42c heatwaves this summer. The correct approach is to acknowledge that there may be a higher chance of a hot, dry summer and we may be more likely to experience heatwaves.

On the contrary, I wouldn't mind a mild, gentle summer with plenty of rain after last year. I think I started to lose my sanity after a while in that heat...

I'm glad it's gone well for you - Here we had a nice cold anomaly in December and had snow for a week, then January started really wet and mild, we had a bit of normal winter weather for a little while, and then February was dreadful, just like last February, or the February before that, or the February before that one, etc.. March has been interesting - We've been working on a cool spell for most of March so far - got some transient snow on Wednesday that managed to withstand a few hours of sleet and cold rain before disappearing. Now just one day later we're back up to average for the time of year (remember, March 9th is a very different time of year to March 31st), and after a cooler Friday and Saturday we appear to be working at painfully average conditions for the next ever. The moderate, gentle rain throughout is very welcome though. Let's hope it delivers to its fullest extent - Summer coming up looks like another one to potentially get the record books out for - Just like almost every other one in recent times.

Yup, it's looking worse than last year's seasonal forecast did in March 2022 - Granted I'm not suggesting by any means that we'll see the same extreme temperatures we did last year, not at this point anyway. It could manifest as one or two 42c days among extremely average conditions, or as 30c every day from June to September. The likelihood is somewhere in the middle of those two, which is still terrible after what happened last year, and then the driest February in 30 years, especially if it's also unusually dry. People don't seem to understand that torrential downpours after an extremely dry spell do next to nothing for recovering from a drought, since it's all just going to wash off of the dry, desiccated ground, and evaporate again when it gets warm and sunny. We need a period of moderate, consistent, settled rainfall like what we're set to get for the rest of March - that's the only way to really recover from massive droughts. For the last four years or so, every large park and field near me has been waterlogged for months in the winter, and then in March or April when we get a warm, dry spell, it all evaporates again and leaves the ground not much wetter than when it started, except this year it all started drying up in February instead due to how bone dry it was. Hopefully this wetter spell throughout March (and possibly April) can make us a bit more resistant to a dry summer again this year, and let's pray to the weather gods that we don't see the same sort of extreme heat again.

Of course. It's better to be safe than sorry. You don't want to not activate the warning, and then against the odds it does get seriously cold, vs activating the warning and it predictably doesn't get anomalously cold. And as you mention, a freezing night or two is still bad news for the homeless and potentially for the vulnerable.

I totally agree. I'm a big coldie and I've been able to see for weeks that this wasn't going anywhere, at the same time the MOD thread was in FI. It seems like we're headed for weather that doesn't really please anyone for the next couple of weeks: Rainy, overcast and painfully average.

Depressing forecast here. Just two days of 5c and one freezing night with the possibility of transitory snow, and then low double digits rain for the next ever. I think the seasons are the wrong way around; this looks more like your average November forecast than March. Would be funny if this autumn ends up being really sunny and spring-like after what looks to be a very autumntastic spring. I wouldn't take the Met Office warning as a serious sign; they always up the ante with cold warnings to account for the small possibility that things do get cold and snowy somewhere. Sort of like the July 2021 heatwave which was given the first ever red heat warning, and in the end, compared to recent years it wasn't anything to write home about. The warning is issued every time the forecast looks like its about to have a freezing night or two.

On the inverse, I'm too hot for the majority of the year in this country, so lets hope it doesn't get too warm that quickly shall we. Peak of 16c or so this month, 18c in April, 20c in May and a cool, gentle summer with an average high of 18c or so and a maximum of 25c sounds nice. No high 30s-40c nonsense this time please. I don't think current conditions are that unseasonable to be honest. This time five years ago much of the country was in the freezer, and five years before that too. Highs of 5-6c with a few cold nights are really nothing to write home about in the first half of March, especially when things seem to be going for an average high of 10-13c after that, which is exceptionally average. The only thing that won't be average about this March is the rainfall, that is if it lands, which it doesn't seem to be so far on the east coast...