Sun Chaser

In Absence of True Seasons If mid April until December is anomalously sunny and dry, I think 2024 can still be considered a great year. Like 3% chance of that happening but it still could, like if we got a 2018 situation until July then a 2016 rest of the year. With a good summer this can still be considered a decent year, I value April - July over Jan - April tbh

This upcoming sunnier drier spell better last a while yet, we have some catching up to do. Here's the sunshine stats here for the first 3 and a half months of the year since 2018: 2018 - 293 hrs 2019 - 299 hrs 2020 - 313 hrs (this came before the sunniest May on record too) 2021 - 297 hrs 2022 - 293 hrs 2023 - 212 hrs (already dull) 2024 - 161 hrs (shocking!) * the only "recent" start to the year comparable to 2024 for dullness was 2013 which was infamously god awful, but even that managed 193 hours! No wonder it's barely felt like spring at all. If 2024 wants to be considered a good year it'll need a classic late spring and summer, otherwise another one for the bin!

I hope this month doesn't even sniff April 2011 or even 2020/2007 in the CET rankings. Most undeserving month ever. Wherever this "exceptionally mild" start to the month has hit, it hasn't been here! 17 hours of sunshine out of 12 days is not enough for this to be even considered anywhere near the same league. To think I thought May 2022 being near the top was undeserving. This is a whole new level!

TheOgre Difference being that March 2014 was genuinely lovely and very opposite of the March just gone. A lot of dry, sunny weather in 2014, with midmonth especially nice! While 2024 had nothing but 27 days of slate grey skies and torrential rain to offer, with odd springlike days scattered between.

In Absence of True Seasons Actually. At this point if we truly want to get balance after this past 18 months, we need a hot May that challenges or breaks the maximum temperature record (which is relatively not that extreme compared to other months around it), followed by a dry sunny summer (though it doesn't need to be record breakingly hot), a very sunny and anticyclonic autumn, and a winter more in the vein of 2022/23 (or 2009/10 since we are due some snow). Then a very sunny and warm March like 2012 or 2022, since we've had two of the worst in history on the trot, then a return to the dry sunny Aprils of the early 2020s

B87 Even worse here, 36.8mm of rainfall and a shocking 6.7 hours of sunshine. So glad I've been away this week as I don't think I've ever seen a statistically worse start to April here in my life, even if temperature wise it has (as ever) been average. But April still has a chance to save itself. Starting on Thursday (my birthday!) it looks predominantly dry for the foreseeable which can only be an improvement. I can see Apr 2024 ending up in the same leagues as 2023 or 2014 - a bit wetter and duller than normal but saved by some better spells too.

WYorksWeather To be honest that Newcastle mean keeps pressure above 1020 from day 9 onwards as well. I think the switch we've all been so desperately waiting for may finally be arriving

CoventryWeather Mixed is a lot better than the deluges of February and March!

Just caught up on today's GFS 06z. What a run! A strong high smack bang over the UK from day 10 right until the end. Just what we need after the wettest 18 months on record. The less said about the 12z the better

CryoraptorA303 I would be surprised if we had another hot September. However we are most definitely due a dry August and second half of the year as a whole - I'd go for drier than avg and warmer than avg September, notably dry and sunny October, and a drier than avg and cool November, followed by the driest December since 2016, also fairly cold - possibly more so than 2017 but not to the extent of 2022.

I think we deserve that after what we've been through since autumn 2022! Says a lot that it's been the wettest 18 months on record despite having two 6 week long very very dry spells in the middle.

GFS consistently showing some settled warmth and drier weather starting on April 10th! This is not a drill! We can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel, rejoice Been looking for this for the past two months and it's finally come just in time for my birthday. Appreciate it weather gods. (probably going to get a trough straight after but GFS keeps giving us highs in FI so things aren't looking as bad as they were a week ago)

GFS keeps on with this ridge to our south next week as it becomes more influential with every run. It seems there could be a way out of this rut as soon as day 7-8. Just in time for my birthday It could still be somewhat westerly (in the south at least) but ultimately it's high pressure so it would be dry and pretty warm, and with the LP to our west there's potential a day or two later for low twenties under southerly winds. Inevitably the low swings by afterwards but what's encouraging is that, for the first time in what seems like decades, GFS is repeatedly showing high pressure ridging in from the Azores in FI. The Greenland high is also completely gone by then which can only be a good thing. Don't want to say anything too early but I think there's signs of at least a less offensively wet pattern on the way! Just to add, the ensemble mean pressure has shot up to 1020 out of nowhere! A couple of days ago we were looking at 1010 all the way to the end and now we have relatively good agreement on a build of pressure from the 10th onwards. Huge progress.

Summer8906 Going off stats, the period from the 15th to the 24th was fairly damp and very dull but still warm. However from experience the final week of the month was nice and settled, sunny, mostly dry and warm (mid 20s), nothing extreme - a nice end to a great summer.

We actually beat March 2023 for rainfall here!! By an impressive 0.2mm. 146.0mm recorded last month. Great stuff 2024

CoventryWeather This ridge is our way out of this spell perhaps! ECM and GEM looking decidedly dry by day 10. First sign of anything other than a zonal trough fest on the models in weeks.

Some real good examples since this comment too! Oct 21 to Nov 21 heralding a drier period and then Feb 23 to Mar 23 which has since left us in the very wet regime we've been in since. Hopefully we get a switcharound soon.

Mapantz Likely to become the third day out of the last four to record over 15mm of rainfall! Some huge deluges we've had this week

ANYWEATHER Now we're having torrential wind and gales... 6mm in the last 20 minutes! Just for context however - February and March this year combined has had more rainfall now than the entire first 8 months of 2022 here!

Last night we had our first lying snow in Plymouth since 2019 - incredible scenes and this late in the season!! The latest I can remember for sure. This morning there's a loud thunderstorm... an absolutely crazy 12 hours of weather that almost makes the rain worth it as an enthusiast. It was a very rapid rain to snow event that was completely unforecasted and surprisingly was so heavy it even settled! Can't wait for it to settle down and warm up but at least it's giving us some interesting conditions now!

This one comment is giving me hope!

In Absence of True Seasons Thinking about when I went swimming at the beach, with my friends, and had a beach barbecue on March 27th 2022. That's what can be possible at this time of year! But not in 2024

I remember the CFS predicting February 2023 to be a cyclonic mess with a huge LP anomaly smack bang over the UK, and July 2023 to be a cracking month with a strong HP anomaly over the east of the UK. Not sure about what it predicted for 2022 but maybe take it with a pinch of salt!

Daniel* That's averaging 140mm down here in the next two weeks. All that after a >100mm March, February, December and November. This is just a sick joke at this point. Never in my life have I seen model output look so dire across the board, ESPECIALLY at this time of year.

Alderc 2.0 Praying for the second week of April because I'd quite like to have a dry birthday!