WYorksWeather

Scorcher Quite possibly. To be fair to it I'm comparing to the 00z so GFS and UKV both had a few hours advantage on it. But in general I find that both GFS and ECM tend to under-read outside of very rare circumstances for the UK. The only overestimations I've seen are night-time minima under snow cover (see e.g. hilly areas in January) and daytime maxima in the presence of extremely dry ground (e.g. the July 2022 record-breaker). I'd confidently say that 90% of the time the daily maximum for the UK will be underpredicted by GFS and ECM, whereas UKV is often within a degree or so of the overall daily maximum across the UK, and better at figuring out the regional/local trends as well.

CryoraptorA303 Soon to be overtaken by West Yorkshire stations, perhaps...

viking_smb Going by these charts it should turn out nice just in time.

marky810 I saw a clip of Horsforth underwater and flooding in Bradford earlier. Highest rainfall totals for the region going by the Check For Flooding service look to be Eccup Reservoir with 38.2mm in last 6 hours and 28.6mm in last 6 hours at Headingley. Rain has now reached Wakefield as well though with 7.6mm in the last hour - remains to be seen if it will surpass the others. Check for flooding in England - GOV.UK CHECK-FOR-FLOODING.SERVICE.GOV.UK View current flood warnings and alerts for England and the national flood forecast for the next 5 days. Also check river, sea, groundwater and rainfall levels. In terms of intensity, Eccup Reservoir is the winner with 10.4mm in 15 minutes between 6:30 and 6:45 this evening. Must have been crazy under that!

Some interesting trends to pull out of the GFS 12z temperature ensembles this evening. Firstly, a lot of disagreement on the timing of the end of the warm influence and a return to something closer to average. The mean starts to reduce around the beginning of next week on the 13th, but there are some runs that extend the warmth well beyond that to as far as the 15th, and in fact go well above 10C at 850hPa. After that, a lot of scatter with likely options close to average but again plenty of very warm options available. In terms of temperature forecasts, I still continue to think UKV is the best model for shorter term - it has the better resolution and is meant to be more accurate over the UK, and I usually think it does its job better than the others. Here is today's afternoon forecast from the UKV 03z this morning, followed by ECM 00z and GFS 06z attempts next to it: And here is verification from Meteociel: It's pretty clear from that I think that UKV performed best - ECM was far too low with temperatures in the SW, GFS was too low with the absolute max, and UKV was probably the closest to getting it all right. So, with that in mind, we can now reach Saturday with the UKV 15z, so here are the afternoon temperatures for every day up to and including Saturday: So, overall consensus has Friday and Saturday as the warmest days, with a gradual build of heat through the week. 23C the highest max on those charts, but a very widespread 20C or higher towards the end of the week. The idea that we'd have 850s in the 5-10C range and temperatures limited to high teens in most places never seemed credible to me as others had also pointed out, and UKV dispenses with that idea tonight. Again UKV did under-read by 1C, so I do wonder whether somewhere will get to a sneaky 24C. The 850hPa temperatures for the week also illustrate this quite well - just gently warming up throughout the week. Here are 850s for tomorrow afternoon, compared to Saturday afternoon. Tomorrow warmth focused on southern and western regions, Wednesday central and eastern excluding far N England and Scotland. Thursday sees more of a N to S split with the dividing line near the Humber. Friday warm for almost all of England and Wales, and Saturday includes Scotland as well. Of course exact details are always subject to last minute change and can even become a nowcast situation, but in terms of the overall maxes if not the exact placement, I think we can be pretty confident that most areas will be seeing low 20s towards the end of the week, and mid 20s definitely can't be ruled out in a few favoured spots. Summary In the short term, lots of dry and increasingly warm weather around. Uncertainty around the duration, but looks to last with some certainty to the end of the week, and possibly even beyond that. After that a bit of a cool down is likely, but warm runs are popping up again beyond that. Everything in these charts is indicative of a warm week to come, and likely a very warm first half of May overall for many areas.

A very varied and somewhat interesting day today. Spent the day in Filey on the Yorkshire coast - warm to very warm in the sun but cool in the shade, max around 16-17C. Quite pleasant from around 11am to 3pm or so, but then clouded over and felt increasingly chilly, so a difficult day to categorise in terms of feel. On the way back earlier this evening encountered towering clouds of doom near York and absolutely torrential rain at times, plus a few lightning flashes. Now stuck under a persistent band of rain back at home. So dark it could easily pass for 10pm. Despite the rain though, it doesn't feel as bad - it feels like a very May sort of day with all the variety.

Scorcher Quite correct - in fact latest GFS has above average temperatures persisting in both Newcastle and London (to prove it's not a location thing) right until the end of the run. Albeit more unsettled by the end but if it is westerly or south-westerly then with above average 850hPa temperatures it's still going to be a warm period overall. We're looking at a setup here that could well lead to a notably warm May. And worth noting that there's an increasing number of very warm runs again - always worth keeping an eye on those 10-15C 850hPa runs. They may disappear again but it always seems to happen these days that at some point they build in support and verify - whether it will happen this month or not, of course, remains uncertain. For the shorter term, UKV looks fairly promising over the next 5 days. Increasingly widespread warmth through the next few days - tomorrow for central areas, Tuesday for more southern and western areas, and Wednesday through Friday sees increasingly widespread warmth almost everywhere away from NW England and parts of Scotland.

Summer8906 There is a possible way to get anomalous cold for both western and southern Europe - it would probably require the mid-April type pattern to continue. Heat getting displaced further east towards south-eastern and central Europe, with all of western and south-western Europe being on the cooler than average side. But the late April pattern persisting for a whole summer would be quite bizarre - not sure if I can recall a good historical example of a summer that would be comparable.

Not sure about the why aspect, but in terms of predictions, a paper I posted in here a few weeks ago suggested this might actually be a good sign for a warm and dry early summer pattern.

The PIT Hansen is on the opposite end of the argument to the sceptics, though. His argument is in fact that the reduction in aerosols is effectively revealing a large amount of CO2-caused warming that was previously being masked. In short, he is arguing that the effects of climate change have been underestimated, not overestimated.

Lovely morning / lunchtime period here. Clouded over a bit this afternoon and a fair bit cooler but all in all a pretty decent day. Max of 17-18C.

Metwatch Interesting set of points here - I guess the thing that gives me pause about only a couple more 40C temperatures up to 2050 is the fact that we've seen 37-38C quite frequently in recent years (not yet 50% of the time though, of course). I guess we will soon find out. A lot depends on whether we keep seeing temperatures approaching 40C in the years ahead, or whether the last 5 years starts to look like a bit of an anomaly, with a return to annual maxes mainly in the low to mid 30s rather than high 30s.

Daniel* Please read the post in context - I'm talking about the context of the period after a potential breakdown of the high pressure, so around day 10 or beyond. By that point, SST anomalies look like this: A warm anomaly virtually everywhere around the UK. You're right that they're still 'cold' in absolute terms - I'm not suggesting a dip in the sea in early May will be particularly enjoyable! But that doesn't change the point about the impact on temperature anomalies - it still means temperatures will likely be higher than you'd normally expect based on the airmass source for the time of year, and in particular night-time minima will be elevated.

LetItSnow! Yep that's definitely a good point. I suppose I was speaking more broadly about prospects for the rest of the month - any merely cool airflows will probably be near average, so it would take a cold airflow to get below average I think.

LetItSnow! I think a return to truly colder than average conditions is probably going to be difficult without a prolonged northerly interlude, given the impact of the very high SSTs around the UK. That would probably limit the chilly nights which you would still need at this time of year to record anything much below average. There are only a handful of runs in the ensembles at the moment that take the 850hPa temperatures below 0C, which is probably what you'd need. Even this chart for Newcastle shows at most a return closer to average, and that only by the 20th! In the reliable up to day 10 still solidly above average.

Separately but related to my comment above, worth also noting that the ECM weather regime charts also look relatively good for the longer range. Very low probability of negative NAO and Atlantic ridging, both of which are poor patterns for May and June if you want warm and dry weather, increased probabilities of Scandi highs and positive NAO. Of course these charts can and probably will end up being wrong at times, but these actually look quite good for the rest of May.

Bit of a shot in the dark at this range, but for those already interested in developments after next week, the ECM clusters are quite instructive for days 11, 13 and 15. Model consensus is that all clusters turn unsettled around day 11. The key divergence is where we go after that. Cluster 1 says we stay unsettled for a few days and by day 15 no real signal. Clusters 3 and 5 are more consistently unsettled right out to day 15. Cluster 4 has more high than low pressure influence for the most part but generally west of the UK, so possibly cool and somewhat showery the bet with that. Cluster 2 is the best of the lot for warm and dry, with the unsettled period followed by a very warm to hot area of high pressure building over and to the east by day 15. The safer option for making any prediction is probably to focus on days 11 to 13 just outside the reliable, which does look like an unsettled period. But whether it is a brief interlude of unsettled weather or a return to more prolonged and persistent unsettled weather is impossible to know at this stage, and it could still get delayed or pushed back. I think predicting at this stage that the upcoming high is just an anomaly about to be replaced with another prolonged unsettled period is borne more of cynicism about the recent pattern than a fair-minded analysis of the models.

Metwatch I'd be interested to know why you'd go that low - not saying you're wrong necessarily! Is it that you think the Coningsby event was very exceptional, on the order of a 1 in 200 chance at the moment in any given year, or do you think it's higher than that in any random year, but that circumstances this year don't favour it? Totally not a criticism, but always interested to hear alternative views. I do agree with the broader point of course that you certainly wouldn't bet on it happening in any given year, though.

ANYWEATHER I'd be willing to go with the following for this year with very high confidence: This year will be the warmest or second warmest on record globally, and minimum of top 5 for Europe. Less than 1% of the Earth's total land area will record a coldest on record year (so allowing maybe one or two countries only). Closer to home it will be at minimum a top 10 CET year, and top 5 in the shorter UK record. The UK's annual maximum will be at least 32C. Looking slightly further ahead, and also with very high confidence: The overall global temperature for 2021-2030 will make it the warmest decade on record. The 5 year period 2026-2030 will be warmer than 2021-2025, despite the transition to La Nina and unwinding of any Hunga Tonga effect. Before the end of the decade, there will be at least one more temperature recording of 38C or higher in the UK. With more moderate confidence, closer to 50-50, I would also add the following by 2030: Somewhere in Europe will officially record 50C for the first time. The UK record of 40.3C from 2022 will be beaten again. Theoretically if you're right all of those would be highly unlikely. I'm more than willing to be quoted on any of these - feel free to bookmark my post. I will also try to bookmark it and revisit at minimum the predictions for this year (of course no one knows what they'll be doing at the end of the decade!).

Possibly an outside chance next week, but would require the orientation of the high to be favourable, and probably a brief brush with some of the 10C 850hPa air to our south. Most models say no at the moment.

raz.org.rain I was talking about this in the model thread last night - some warm SSTs around the UK and to our south-west building over the next 15 days, days 0, 5, 10 and 15 below (charts are much the same from ECM 00z as they were from last night's 12z:

reef According to most forecasts it's not going to break here all day, but at least it isn't forecast rain I suppose. A useable but uninspiring day, but nevertheless I'll be off the forum in a few minutes because I'm going to go and make use of it .

GFS 6z is one of the best runs I've seen in a long time for prolonged dry weather, albeit probably very mild to warm-ish rather than very warm. Interesting to see first signs that after a weakening in pressure around day 7 or beyond, that there is a further signal for a build in pressure beyond that. High builds in at day 3: Still going at day 5: And day 7: Possible slight weakening at day 10: A slightly more showery interlude at day 12: By day 15, another high builds: And even at day 16, the low to our NW will likely miss or just graze the north of the UK: This signal for a further build in pressure is beginning to be seen on the ensembles, e.g. here on the GFS 00z with the mean having a renewed rise in pressure towards the middle of May: All a very long way off, but encouraging that we have a generally very mild to warm and largely but not entirely dry week to come, and then beyond that we can already see a signal for another high after any breakdown. Those developments a very long way off of course but nice to see a run that doesn't see a full-blown Atlantic breakthrough.

Does show how regional it is - Wednesday and Thursday were the best of this week so far and today I'm stuck under thick, low grey cloud. On the cool side as well - around 11-12C at the moment. At least it is forecast to stay dry I suppose, so still useable. I'll take it in all honesty, my expectations are that low at the moment.

This one is now only 3-4 days away - the improvement starts to kick in around Tuesday. Of course, it'll take more than one nice week to begin to compensate for the recent dross...