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Once more, I'm going to see if GFS or ECM 12z lead us anywhere into early November. First, the ensembles. GFS mean is around the long-term average to slightly below, ECM mean is generally above. In relation to the ensemble means, the GFS is close to its mean, but with some variation towards the end of the run. ECM is in line with its ensemble at the start but then drops below from around day 5, though not notably so. At T+72, GFS and ECM both have a large area of low pressure encroaching from the west. ECM has it at 980mb, GFS at 975mb. At T+120, GFS develops a highly complex low pressure setup. All of the UK is under 990mb, and there are three secondary lows dotted around to our west, south west, and east. ECM tends to want to hold the low to the west at this stage. Unusually given the storm risk I'll also show T+144. GFS produces an impactful storm for the south (formed from the low to the south-west visible at T+120), making landfall at 965mb. ECM doesn't make quite as much of it but still thoroughly unpleasant weather at 980mb. At T+168, GFS clears the storm through the east coast, as does ECM, but remaining unsettled. Skipping ahead now to T+240, GFS wants to return us to more of a classic autumn setup - westerly driven, with a NW/SE split. NW generally remaining quite unsettled, but some more usable weather further south with a series of short-lived ridges. ECM isn't really interested, and blows up yet another low pressure system at T+240. Moving into the GFS extended, all attempts at ridging break down by day 11, and numerous storm systems start flying in again. Unsettled for the whole of the UK, but unlike at day 5-6, the worst of the weather is reserved for Northern Ireland, northern England, and Scotland. At least two notable storms between day 10 and the end of the run. Here's the final position at T+384. Remaining very unsettled. In terms of rainfall, GFS and ECM both look pretty wet. Just for fun, here's the GFS at T+384. Serious flooding risk if this verifies. Absolutely bonkers.

GFS vs ECM 12z comparisons again. Looking to see if we can get past the current unsettled spell to see any changes on the horizon, and also whether there is any more high-impact weather before then. GFS and ECM ensemble means are mostly above the long-term average at 850hPa. The OP is broadly in line with the mean on both charts. Probably suggestive of a slightly milder than average pattern over the next 10 days, but nothing notably mild. At T+72, both GFS and ECM show a deep area of low pressure out in the Atlantic that has influence over the UK, along with a secondary low to our east. Otherwise, the only notable difference is a much stronger Greenland high on the GFS compared to the ECM. At T+120, both GFS and ECM weaken the main low slightly but bring it right over the top of the UK at around 980mb. Not pleasant conditions! T+168 sees the first major divergence. GFS keeps a deep low sat over the top of the UK, while ECM, in quite an odd pattern, fails to push the low right through, and forces it back out to our west. Then at T+240, it's small but subtle differences. GFS attempts to build up some heights but it's a pretty flimsy attempt. ECM seems to make a bit more of it, though hard to be certain as we don't have anything beyond day 10. Finally, looking at the GFS extended, it's frankly an absolute horror show. I'll pick this frame at T+324 which really tells you the story - an extremely severe storm impacting Scotland and Northern England. At T+384, finally, GFS looks like possibly attempting some sort of ridge, but of course that's well out into FI. In short, no hope whatsoever on the GFS tonight. ECM possibly a little more keen on a pattern change in the day 9-10 range, but until we start seeing it at day 7 or sooner I'd assume the Atlantic onslaught continues for the foreseeable. Rainfall totals out to day 10 show widespread 40mm or more on GFS, with some isolated southern and western coastal areas topping 100mm. ECM has a slightly lower average, but is probably more impactful, with another 100mm to fall on already saturated ground in eastern Scotland, probably the worst place in the entire country for it. Serious flooding concerns across much of the country if this goes on much longer I think.

Bit later than usual but I'll do the 18z GFS vs 12z ECM. 12z GFS ensemble is shown below for reference, 18z may be different. Overall, the ensemble means are quite close to the long-term mean. At T+66/72, GFS slides a slow moving low along the east coast of central/northern England and Scotland, which looks very bad for areas already affected by flooding. ECM moves it through a bit faster from west to east, which is probably the best of the two options from a flood risk perspective. At T+114/120, GFS and ECM both have deep low pressure out in the Atlantic. GFS brings it in closer, ECM a little further out to sea. At T+162/168, GFS swings the low in even closer. ECM briefly flirts with this idea but then sends the deepest area of the low back out west. From a pure flood risk perspective again I think we need to be rooting for ECM here. By T+240, finally a bit of a light at the end of the tunnel. GFS goes for a NW/SE split so at least some of us will get some drier weather, and ECM goes further by building up a ridge that gets at least to central areas. The GFS extended continues in a similar vein to the position at T+240, bit of a NW/SE split, settled interludes in between showery bursts. Pretty mild.

I just don't know how you can say 'we'll never know the answer to this question', when it is literally one of the most studied questions in climatology. Unless you mean that we'll be able to give an exact percentage, in which case I'd concede that this is unlikely. Estimates I've seen range from the 70% range at the lower end, to well over 100% at the high end (in other words, cooling absent anthropogenic influence). The strands of evidence are many, but can be broadly divided into four types. 1. Radiative forcing - the basic physics of the greenhouse effect is based on experiments that date back to the mid-19th century - Eunice Newton Foote and John Tyndall are a good starting point if you want to read more about this. 2. Simulations / models - these get a bad rap from a lot of people, but essentially nobody has been able to produce a simulation that explains the current warming without a dominant anthropogenic signal. Natural forcings and internal variability are insufficient by themselves. 3. Direct physical evidence - carbon isotope changes, solar insolation changes, measurements at various levels of the atmosphere, and so on. 4. Paleoclimatology - studying past climates to identify causes and effects of changes in climate. The other point is that I would note that those who are opposed to the consensus have failed for the last 30 years to propose a coherent alternative theory. If you throw 10 mainstream IPCC scientists into a room they agree on the broad theory and perhaps disagree on some details. But there is no clear opposing camp - I've seen theories ranging from the influence of the sun, volcanoes, internal variability, and about a dozen other things, none of which stand up to scrutiny as explanations once you actually scratch the surface. Those who are opposed to the consensus need to propose an alternative theory that isn't inconsistent with one or more of the strands of evidence. Of course the question of policy is a different one, and leaves the realm of the purely scientific to enter the realm of the political, so I'm not going to open that can of worms in this reply. Happy to further discuss any of the above.

GFS vs ECM 12z runs. Both models are close to their ensemble means. Temperatures broadly average. At T+72, both GFS and ECM show low pressure out to our west, a little weaker on GFS than ECM. At T+120, deep low pressure piles in from the west. This time it's a little stronger on GFS than ECM, but broadly a very wet pattern on both. At T+168, those low pressure systems are right over the UK. We could well be looking at two named storms in as many weeks if something like this comes off. Note that yet more low pressure is away to our west, and an ex-tropical feature visible on the GFS. At T+240, yet another deep low pressure system absorbs the ex-tropical system, and then piles in on the GFS. ECM lacks the tropical system, and my guess is that the low therefore has a bit less energy, as it stalls just to our west, with some potential for eastern areas to get something a little more settled, though likely still showery at times. More of a traditional NW to SE split. Finally, the GFS extended eventually settles things down right at the very end. You'd think this would be quite a mild pattern, but the surface flow is north-easterly and so it's probably cool and settled. Long way off though. In summary, I think if you're wanting any sustained settled weather for the rest of October you're out of luck. It's a case of watching and waiting to see if we're able to eventually get a solution closer to what the GFS extended is showing. Rainfall accumulations on the GFS and ECM out to T+240 are still very high, and this is coming in addition of course to all the rain that has already fallen over the last 24 hours. On balance ECM probably slightly less wet than GFS, but pretty unsettled all round.

There we have it:

Latest update: Another few warnings added. Headingley 46.4mm, Bradford 55.8mm, Wakefield 93.2mm in the last 24 hours. Likely Wakefield will top 100mm as the rain didn't start until 1am.

Considering I only posted this four hours ago, things are moving very fast. Headingley now at 38mm, Bradford at 49.3mm, Wakefield at 79mm. That's quite a lot of warnings...

Looking at weather stations for the three cities it really doesn't look good in West Yorkshire. Wakefield getting the worst of it so far.

Going to do my usual GFS vs. ECM comparison on the 12z model runs. Probably first worth a disclaimer that others have covered the near-term solution with Storm Babet so I'm not going to rehash that. All in all best to follow the Met and local flood warnings, and stay safe everyone. As @Metwatch showed above, GFS is broadly close to its mean, and ECM ensembles not out at the moment. At T+72, both GFS and ECM have low pressure well in control. Perhaps slightly dryer further south but still looking very unsettled. At T+120, low pressure is still over the UK, and yet another deep low sits ominously out to our west. At T+168, would you believe it, both models pass it over the UK. Note the ex-tropical signature at the bottom left of the charts. At T+240, GFS produces an extremely powerful low, peaking at 945mb shortly before this frame. It seems to weaken slightly and sit out in the Atlantic south of Iceland and west of the UK, which is very much a good thing. ECM only blows it up to about 970mb, but it does graze the south of the UK. Still likely to produce a lot of very wet weather. In the GFS extended, high pressure eventually takes over with the Azores high building in. It's a mild ridge as well, generally bringing winds from the south west. Temperatures into the mid to high teens on some days further south. Not to be taken too seriously, but it's the first signal I've seen in a while for something a bit more settled, so we can consider it a start. The GEFS ensembles show that it is generally on the more optimistic side, but not entirely lacking in support.

Slightly weird feel - went out for a walk about an hour ago, still dry but with a sense of an approaching storm. Very mild out there, felt more like a late August or early September wet spell. Heavy rain forecast overnight though.

I think there is some over-catastrophising and doomism at times which isn't very helpful. But it also isn't helpful to have a head in the sand approach (not accusing you of that). The right approach in my view is that we need to mitigate emissions as quickly as we reasonably can. But we also need huge investment in adaptation, both in the West and in developing countries, as some significant changes are now sadly inevitable. It has to be both mitigation and adaptation. In terms of life flourishing historically, what makes this different is the speed of the change. Life has adapted to all sorts of conditions, when given many thousands or millions of years to do so. But in every single case I am aware of, dramatic changes on the order of centuries or faster with a worldwide scope have in every instance proved catastrophic for the life on the planet at that time (though of course many species have survived in each instance, otherwise we wouldn't be here).

It all comes down to probability in the end. If you assume the temperature anomaly for each month is statistically independent (i.e. month to month correlation is zero, or approximately zero), then even with a very high probability of each month being above average, like 75%, the overall chance of getting a whole year with no below average months is still only 3%. For this event to be regular, we'd need something like a 90% probability for each month, which would give odds of around 30%. It's probably not entirely true that months are statistically independent of one another, but it's also unlikely that the correlation is very high, otherwise you'd be able to make long range forecasts very easily!

My method was to take the daily figures for 1961-1990 and compute averages by month. I used a strict test, to only allow months with positive anomalies. For example, 2017 shows with rounded anomalies of 0.0 for August and September, and above average for all other months, but both of those are actually negative. This was calculated using the latest version of CET i.e. version 2.0.1.0. Month 1961-1990 average 1 3.81 2 3.80 3 5.67 4 7.88 5 11.2 6 14.1 7 16.0 8 15.8 9 13.6 10 10.5 11 6.43 12 4.54

Once more I'm going to do a 12z GFS vs ECM comparison, and look at rainfall accumulations over the near term given the interest from Storm Babet. The GEFS is showing that tonight's 12z GFS sits somewhere near the middle of the pack except at the very end where it goes somewhat colder. A fairly eye catching +15C isotherm ensemble (P3) is worth keeping an eye on to see if it gathers any support over the coming days, but most likely it will fade away. ECM ensembles aren't out yet. At T+72, both models have a major low over the UK after the initial impacts from Storm Babet in the next couple of days. Some variation around where the worst impacts will be as a result. GFS focused more over the south, ECM closer to more north-eastern areas. At T+120, both GFS and ECM have a low to our south west, though ECM makes more of it. The result is that temperatures are close to average on GFS under a south-easterly but possibly a little above average on the ECM with more of a direct southerly influence. Likely still quite showery. By this point, accumulated rain totals from GFS and ECM are very high. Some differences in location as mentioned earlier but certainly few areas seeing less than 40-50mm and many areas seeing 100mm or more. Of course the highest totals to be found in eastern Scotland as per the weather warnings issued today. Moving on, at T+168 GFS already has another low encroaching from the west. ECM is a bit slower with the low but it is looming in the Atlantic. By T+240, GFS goes on to pass a deep low right over the top of the country, whilst ECM at least keeps the core of it a bit to our west. Still a pretty miserable weather pattern though in either case. In the extended, the GFS finally starts to lift the heights a little, possibly allowing the south to dry out a little, but still low pressure dominates further north. Turning colder right at the end at least in terms of 850hPa with more of a north-westerly flow. Most likely, this is due to a strong Greenland block which reaches 1050mb. Nothing overly cold though for the time of year, perhaps a little below average, as low pressure will typically bring cloud and hold up night-time minima. Of course this is a long way into FI and hence not to be taken too seriously. Overall though, it's fair to say that the next 7-10 days is looking pretty miserable. Which is brilliant timing, because I've booked a week off work Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99428-model-output-discussion-mid-autumn/?do=findComment&comment=4939089

A bit later than usual, but here's the GFS 18z vs ECM 12z comparison. I'll be comparing the same valid date/time, e.g. GFS T+66 vs. ECM T+72. The GFS 18z ensemble chart isn't out yet, but the ECM is close to its mean on the 850hPa temperature. At T+66/72, GFS and ECM both have the remnants of Storm Babet to our south east, though the low is deeper on the ECM. Both charts show a Scandinavian high, and a deep Greenland low. At T+114/120, GFS swings in another low from off the Atlantic, whilst ECM doesn't bother with that and instead brings the remnants of Storm Babet back up the east of the UK for a second go. Quite an unusual pattern. In terms of the upper air temperatures, GFS looks quite a bit colder with the 0C isotherm covering the UK between T+66 and T+144, whereas ECM never really gets the coldest air across the country - it's mostly restricted to the north. At T+162/168, both GFS and ECM are beginning to break down the Scandinavian high, though less so on the ECM. ECM turns briefly colder as the wind goes into a north-westerly, whereas GFS is fairly close to average at this stage. Both charts though show tons of low pressure to our west and nothing much to stop it - significant rain totals are likely. GFS has an ex-tropical feature or remnant in the bottom left which may become important. Finally, at T+234/240, GFS barrels in yet another deep low from off the Atlantic. There is quite a strong Greenland high, but the Scandinavian high has all but gone, so it's just a continuation of wet weather. ECM also shows the deep low but around a day earlier, and so by T+240 the pattern is a bit flatter. Still looks pretty poor if you're looking for settled weather. Bonus chart is the cumulative precipitation charts from GFS and ECM to T+240. No sugar coating this - heavy rain and possible flooding risks, hence the weather warnings. Risk of 150mm or more in the worst hit areas, and 50mm almost everywhere. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99428-model-output-discussion-mid-autumn/?do=findComment&comment=4938667

Best estimates of contributions to temperature rises over the last 10 years, from Berkeley Earth. As a summary, the combined effects of natural forcings compared to last year could be on the order of 0.1C, internal variability (mostly El Nino) around 0.2C, and marine fuels probably 0.02C (roughly one year of global temperature trend). The underlying global warming trend used here by Berkeley Earth is 0.2C per decade, though if James Hansen is correct we may be seeing an acceleration towards closer to 0.3C, given the continued rise in CO2 and methane emissions over the past few decades and a reduction in SO2 sourced from pollution. In short, the best available evidence would seem to suggest that this year's warmth is partly due to warming since the last El Nino in 2016, but other factors may also be playing a part. Given the IPCC went for 1.2C above pre-industrial as a consensus in the AR6 report, the first wave of which was published in 2021 and based on data for a few years prior, I would say that the underlying trend is probably now in the range of 1.3-1.4C. My expectations would be that next year will be similar or hotter still, but then we will see the usual temporary drop as we go back into La Nina, before another big spike at the time of the next significant El Nino, probably in the late 2020s or early 2030s.

Given trends in recent years, it seems like the average number of months above 1961-1990 is something like 9-10, so on that basis you'd probably say that a priori, the chance of two consecutive months coming out below average is somewhere around 1/4 or 1/3. So I still think it's possible we'll avoid this for another year, but probably more likely than not that it will happen, in my opinion.

I agree that for most purposes recent averages are better. I think it depends what you're looking at, though. If you compare to more recent averages you can't see changes from the past - it's extremely unlikely any year will exceed the average for the preceding three decades in every month if you use a rolling time window - in 20 years, say, we might see a year that exceeds 1991-2020 for every month, but by then the average will have moved on to 2011-2040. This would still be an unprecedented event in terms of persistent warmth - you could define it in terms of the 1991-2020 average just as easily - first year to have no month drop more than X degrees below the 1991-2020 average (don't remember how far below April, July and August were on the CET for 1991-2020). Of course it doesn't quite have the same ring to it! In any case, I still thought it was worth drawing attention to the fact that this might finally happen, given that there have been several near misses. Of course all to play for with November and December.

As has been making the news lately, it looks like there's a high chance that 2023 will be the first year to reach annual average temperatures of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in at least one surface temperature dataset, most likely Berkeley Earth. I thought I'd make this thread to clear up what the IPCC target actually says - a lot of people seem to think that this means that 1.5C has been breached. However, the IPPC definition is a 20-year centred average, which means we're unlikely to breach 1.5C in the next few years. However, most estimates do show that global temperatures are likely to exceed 1.5C over the long term by the early 2030s, or possibly even sooner. In terms of carbon budgets, a recent paper found that the budget has shrunk from 500GT (billion tons) of CO2 in 2020 to 250GT in 2023, thanks to continued emissions and improved scientific understanding. Global emissions are currently around 40GT/year, so that translates to around six years of current emissions, supportive of a date in the late 2020s for surpassing 1.5C. Of course, the 'centred average' bit is tricky, since it means we can likely only declare 1.5C surpassed in hindsight.

Rain just started here in the last few minutes, heavy but not particularly windy.

Thought I'd start this thread. As mentioned a while ago, there's some chance that we could have a unique record this year. No calendar year in the entire CET record has ever been above the 1961-1990 average for every month. The following years have had 11 months above the 1961-1990 average: 1781, 1834, 1945, 1949, 1959, 1999, 2003, 2006, 2014, and 2022. Last year we fell just short, with a below average December CET. So far, every month this year has been above the 1961-1990 average. Given that we've got a mild next few days to come, and a CET around 3C above average so far, it looks almost certain that we're going to maintain the run in October. It will be interesting to see if this year will finally be the year it happens. Too early for much model guidance into November, so probably not much further to update at this point.

Once more I'm going to do a 12z GFS vs ECM comparison, and look at rainfall accumulations over the near term given the interest from Storm Babet. The GEFS is showing that tonight's 12z GFS sits somewhere near the middle of the pack except at the very end where it goes somewhat colder. A fairly eye catching +15C isotherm ensemble (P3) is worth keeping an eye on to see if it gathers any support over the coming days, but most likely it will fade away. ECM ensembles aren't out yet. At T+72, both models have a major low over the UK after the initial impacts from Storm Babet in the next couple of days. Some variation around where the worst impacts will be as a result. GFS focused more over the south, ECM closer to more north-eastern areas. At T+120, both GFS and ECM have a low to our south west, though ECM makes more of it. The result is that temperatures are close to average on GFS under a south-easterly but possibly a little above average on the ECM with more of a direct southerly influence. Likely still quite showery. By this point, accumulated rain totals from GFS and ECM are very high. Some differences in location as mentioned earlier but certainly few areas seeing less than 40-50mm and many areas seeing 100mm or more. Of course the highest totals to be found in eastern Scotland as per the weather warnings issued today. Moving on, at T+168 GFS already has another low encroaching from the west. ECM is a bit slower with the low but it is looming in the Atlantic. By T+240, GFS goes on to pass a deep low right over the top of the country, whilst ECM at least keeps the core of it a bit to our west. Still a pretty miserable weather pattern though in either case. In the extended, the GFS finally starts to lift the heights a little, possibly allowing the south to dry out a little, but still low pressure dominates further north. Turning colder right at the end at least in terms of 850hPa with more of a north-westerly flow. Most likely, this is due to a strong Greenland block which reaches 1050mb. Nothing overly cold though for the time of year, perhaps a little below average, as low pressure will typically bring cloud and hold up night-time minima. Of course this is a long way into FI and hence not to be taken too seriously. Overall though, it's fair to say that the next 7-10 days is looking pretty miserable. Which is brilliant timing, because I've booked a week off work

Yeah it does happen on occasion. Increasingly the pattern for settled and mild at this time of year needs to be a high positioned somewhere to the east of the UK that then draws the wind from a southerly or south-westerly direction.