TillyS

Well that ECMWF mid-Atlantic development mentioned this morning is even stronger on their latest output. These charts at 240 hours are very interesting: This model is basically greatly at variance now from the GFS. Interesting!

Can anyone tell me what it would need to beat the annual CET maxima record? My back of the pad calculation is for the remainder of November and then December to be about 2C above average. Does that seem about right? I think I recall a few years ago that the Met Office announced in mid-December some imminent record warm year and then the weather decide to confound their expectations with a biting cold spell that scuppered it?

Hello everybody. Well, after the storm and clear up here attention is turning to the oncoming winter. It has been a westerly and wet autumn so far and the American GFS seems to want to continue in the same vein. The European ECMWF though looks to have more high pressure builds, with one over Scandinavia which admittedly gets pushed eastwards later in the run. At the same time (240 hrs) there are signs of an extending high pressure ridging north from the Azores towards the mid-Atlantic. So the ECMWF is much more amplified than the zonal GFS. I am very interested to see how this battle of the models develops. xx