Andy8472
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Posts posted by Andy8472
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2 minutes ago, Catacol said:
Just ok??
- it literally couldn't be any better though the gloss is taken off by the fact it is the CFS. I prefer the JMA monthly - that won't be too far away.
Yeah slightly the same
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Not like we already didn't know but it's a bit wet over the uk until the summer drought hits
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8 minutes ago, Bricriu said:
It seems to me the latest GFS run echoes the comments of Amy Butler about events in the strat. Let's hope it's not a rogue run and we can build on it.
Would you be expecting a quick tropospheric response from that given the strat is in a weak state already? Also is there any danger it could flip the pattern to a negative outcome for us. I am thinking not given the UKMO long range, but who knows?
i think it's already giving a quick response according to Amy on twitter https://twitter.com/DrAHButler/status/1744842979188330610
Personally i can't see it being a bad thing at all & can't see it flipping the patten the other way but time will tell as always
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6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
The strat looks obliterated on the 6z run Mike . Can only mean great things going forward.
Yup, on the ropes but might recover later on
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Not the most dramatic nor long lasting reversal you'll ever see but the Ecm still going for a technical SSW at 192hr!
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Dr Butler has posted a informative tweet about the current state of the vortex
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5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
46/51 of the 12z EPS had a technical SSW reversal.
If we do see a reversal then I expect modelling to be even less reliable than it currently is in the med-extended. There is a lot going on at the moment so getting caught up in every individual deterministic run searching for precise desired outcomes makes even less sense than it usually does.
EC46 comes frustratingly close too..
GFS close too but not quite as bullish
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MJO picking up the pace through, hopefully gets back around to 8/1/2/3
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8 minutes ago, Nick123 said:
Sorry if this has already been asked but what is a shortwave?
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2 minutes ago, Nick123 said:
I have no knowledge of the charts at all but I do wonder why we get excited about weather that's a week away when they change run by run?
Looking for patterns & trends really & hope
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i was referring to the blocked Atlantic, I'm aware it's the US
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Meanwhile the normal zonal train CFS for feb looks blocked
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1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:
Back to the SSW again? ever since the beginning of December...that certainly waxes and wanes.
Yeah it's a grind, will it won't it
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Split anyone?
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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
I actually think it’s a bit irrelevant if it’s a displacement ssw
whether it’s 70N or 60N is not as important as the overall profile of the reversal flow through the strat and the size/duration of the reversal
Yeah true, IF it happens shame it wasn't a hard hitting split SSW but hey "beggars can't be choosers"
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Also shows on this mornings stratobserve zonal mean graph, maybe a
close callred herring again or yet again "flip a coin"
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12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
It is a tech ssw reversal andy ? Negative zonal flow recorded and the blue covering 60N 10hpa on the cross section
and looks same again on this mornings run
i would say so "a technical reversal of zonal winds is at 10 hPa 60N" also this mornings 0z GFS was similar although a bit later but no reversal on the 6z
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very near wind reversal at 10hpa
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NMME update
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Shenanigans going on again over the pole
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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
12z EPS, Looking like a reversal whatever difference it makes