Nick H

Philip now has a final February CET figure of 6.05C.

Pretty remarkable when you consider that (1) two of the twelve months that comprised the record-breaking year were actually below the long-term mean and (2) the running CET was below average for much of the first half of the year and only stayed above average from June onwards.

Go to weatheronline.co.uk UK Belfast Aldergrove Airprot History Will have it all - wind, rain, temp, humidity

What level are you? Are - best all round skiing probably in Sweden. Couldn't tell you much about the modern resort, the last time I went was in the early eighties. When I went the main bubble lift went slower than a tortoise, took about 40 mins, hope if you go there it's faster now. Bjorklidens offers excellent intermediate skiing, I went there in 1978 so couldn't comment about what it's like now but as far I know it's still highly regarded. Verbier town in Switzerland has changed immeasurably since I first went there in 1979, so I wish I could tell you what the accommodation, apres-ski and eateries are like in Are and Bjork. in 2006 but I can't. When I think of Swedish resorts another one is Salen, I've never been there so can't comment, well regarded though. The one to do before you die though is Zermatt in Switzerland, the cream of ski resorts, bloody expensive though. One thing to watch, though. If you're going around New Year time, two things actually: higher school holiday prices to beware, also the latitude of Sweden makes the skiing day very short, around 2pm if memory serves. But to conclude, I don't think you could go too far wrong with Are whatever your ability.

I assume you mean a below average December often concludes a very warm year, but, leaving that aside, your proposition is utterly wrong. Of the 10 warmest years in the CET records, four Decembers (1949, 1959, 1997, 2002) recorded above average temperatures, five Decembers (1989, 1990, 1999, 2003, 2004) recorded normal or near-normal temperatures, and just one (1995) recorded a below average temperature. In fact, it's entirely logical that a warm year overall should contain a normal- or above normal-temperature for December. For any given warm year, the chance of any given month having normal- or above-normal temperatures is bound to be higher. Don't need to be Einstein to work that one out!

Here's my data for Jan 1987: Mean max 2.0 Mean min -1.6 Air frosts 19 Highest max 9.0C 1st, 4th Lowest max -8.0C 12th Highest min 6.0C 1st Lowest min -10.0C 12th, 13th, 14th 160m asl, Herts. The lowest min and lowest max are records since I started recording in 1979. Nothing in Dec 1981, Jan 1982, Feb 1986 or Feb 1991 saw maxima that low, although New Year's Day 1979 saw a min of -10C. Jan 12th 1987 is possibly the coldest day of the 20th century in southern England.

Year refers to the winter that started in December of that year, e.g. 1979 = Dec 1979, Jan 1980 and Feb 1980. Number of air frosts are for the calendar year, e.g. 1979 = Jan 1 1979 to Dec 31 1979. 1979 Nov 10 May 8 (56) 1980 Nov 2 Apr 23 (43) 1981 Dec 8 Mar 8 (47) 1982 Nov 28 Apr 3 (32) 1983 Oct 30 Apr 5 (36) 1984 Dec 18 Apr 26 (24) 1985 Nov 3 Apr 13 (57) 1986 Jan 7 (sic) Mar 20 (45) 1987 Nov 28 Mar 5 (53) 1988 Nov 5 Apr 27 (19) 1989 Nov 24 Apr 9 (23) 1990 Dec 6 Mar 30 (14) 1991 Nov 21 Feb 25 (38) 1992 Dec 17 Mar 28 (28) 1993 Oct 16 Feb 23 (29) 1994 Dec 15 Apr 19 (20) 1995 Nov 18 Apr 6 (31) 1996 Nov 14 Apr 22 (56) 1997 Oct 30 Apr 12 (22) 1998 Nov 17 Apr 15 (25) 1999 Dec 14 Mar 26 (19) 2000 Dec 16 Mar 19 (16) 2001 Nov 14 Mar 3 (43) 2002 Dec 10 Apr 11 (15) 2003 Dec 8 Apr 11 (36) 2004 Nov 14 Apr 9 (33) 2005 Nov 14 Ap 10 (43) 2006 mmm dd mmm dd (33*) Location, Herts, c. 160m asl.

Don't be so sure, I bet Redhill Aerodrome and/or some of the valleys just south of Croydon see about 60-70 air frosts a year!

I remember this well - it was the famous Winter of Discontent and the snowy weather, rubbish piled up on pavements and dead unburied all did for Callaghan, who lost the General Election in the spring. I have always had it etched on my mind walking over Westminster Bridge in January 1979 in a blizzard with a biting easterly blowing down the river, feeling as cold as I can ever remember it. For some reason that moment has never escaped me.

Totally agree, Mr S. I'm not sure why SF describes March as an "outlier". He correctly points out that it is 219th in the all-time list of Marches (the middle third), even describing it (equally correctly) as "not exceptionally cold", which makes his labelling of March as an outlier all the more puzzling. The OED defines an outlier as "a result differing greatly from others in a sample". It's difficult to see how March fits that description. If any month in 2006 has been an outlier, surely July is a better example than March. The CET was 1.2C above par for this year at the end of October. Of that differential, exactly 50% is due to July, a percentage that increases if we add into the pot the first, chilly, week of November. Indeed, the running yearly CET was below par during virtually the entirety of the first half of this year, often by as much as one degree C.

To be fair, these internet sites like Metcheck and WeatherNet Ltd are half, if not more, of the problem with their continual feeding of the tabloids. What on earth are people like Andrew Bond thinking when they pronounce that Nov, Dec and Jan are the traditional winter months? How can he purport to be a respected meteorologist with drivel like this? I can only think the reason why Mr Bond, Dr Wild et al do this is to get their and their agency's name in the press, so more hits to their site hence more advertising revenue. Thankfully our own NWx does not appear to have fed the tabloids with these long-range hopecasts and we must be grateful for that. I don't know what Susan Powell is basing her colder-than-average winter forecast on, but since she is employed by the Met Office presumably she is speaking on their behalf? I can't believe she's allowed to freelance.

Funny that because the Vale of York recorded 19C (Church Fenton, nr Selby and Linton-on-Ouse, nr York). You must be high up. The warmth was apparent from Yorkshire, Herefordshire (20C) and Greater London (17C). This is the second year running where we've reached 20C at the end of October - quite remarkable really.

I was in Worcester in January 1982 and the Severn (which is only slightly wider at Worcester than at Shrewbury) had certainly frozen over then. I know that because I've just looked at my albums, which include a lovely photo of the snow-covered cathedral, bridge and frozen river taken from the boundary of the New Road Cricket Ground.

This is obviously of such importance that it needed a very environmentally unfriendly 700 pages to produce this report.

Ground frost Wednesday night, temps 2-6C north to south England. Air frost Thursday night, temps 0 C for north, west, and central England, but a little higher at 3C for E Anglia and SE.

Looking at the wild swings in monthly temperatures in 1817, how much confidence do we actually have in the recording equipment of 200 years ago? Do these figures seem plausible? Is the series of such repute that we have to take this data as read? The autumn temps in particular look extraordinary.

Chiltern Hills, November 1985 Mean max: 6.0C Mean min: 0.8C Lowest min: -3.4C Air frosts: 11 Lying snow: 3 days

As usual, no. Of the 10 warmest extended summers on record, 4 (1868, 1911, 1947 and 2003) preceded mild winters, 4 (1933, 1959, 1976 and 1995) preceded average or near-average winters, and just 2 (1826 and 1846) preceded cold winters.

It was the preceding winter - 1946-7 - that was the cold winter. Winter 1947-8 was remarkably mild. (I assume you were thinking that winter 1947-8 was the cold one, if not, apologies).

Poorly written article. No they don't. On their own, these figures cannot possibily back this argument. I think McKie means "between 1.6C and 2.4C higher".

Mid-month was quite cool in October 1921, yet it's the 4th warmest on recorded and the sunniest ever October.

There is no strong correlation between a warm September and a mild winter. 3 of the warmest 10 Septembers in the last 100 years preceded mild winters (1998, 1949, 1947), 3 preceded cold winters (1961, 1958, 1933) and 4 preceded average or near-average winters (2005, 1999, 1959, 1929). As is often the case, these hypotheses about certain conditions in certain months leading to certain conditions in following months are exposed for what they are...baloney.

Yep, apologies, you're right with 12.0. 14.61 is needed to make the CET equal to 16.64. I forgot it can be equalled by rounding up as well as down. :lol: I think we can say with near certainty that it will be at least equalled.

Hi su rui ke, By my calculations today's CET needs to be 14.61 to equal the record. You posted this message at the same time I posted my estimate of last night's minima: I reckon it's about 8.66.