[Tropical storm Alberto]

[Tropical storm Alberto]

Sometime between tomorrow morning and mid-day.

[Tropical storm Alberto]

None that I know of. I've got a webcam which I could set up and stream, but I'm too lazy and I wouldn't be able to set it up anywhere to get any good shots.

Actually, I know know of one site with cam's set up along the beachs of the Panhandle and Big Bend, but they only update every 10 minutes, soo.

http://www.beachview.com

[Tropical storm Alberto]

The closer it gets to Tallahassee the closer it gets to me. I'm 30 minutes to the Northeast of Tallahassee. w00t. =D

[Tropical storm Alberto]

Is that the eye trying to take shape in this shot?

[Tropical storm Alberto]

Nah, Didn't join. I'm already on sooo many forums. LoL

[Tropical storm Alberto]

Dark clouds rolling into southern Georgia.

[Tropical storm Alberto]

Okay, if this thing comes ashore as a min. Cat 1 hurricane what kind of winds can I exect here at my house?

Here's a link to about where I live...

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&q=Bo...7,5.361328&om=1

[Tropical storm Alberto]

Not much has changed...

000

WTNT31 KNHC 121155

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006

700 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

...ALBERTO HEADED FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA

FROM ENGLEWOOD TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO

BONITA BEACH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 240

MILES...390 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT

295 MILES...475 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR

...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT

24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS

APPROACHING THE CENTER OF ALBERTO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370

KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LARGE EXTENT

OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE FELT

ALONG THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED

MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS

PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN

GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN

FLORIDA TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...26.7 N...87.0 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

[Tropical storm Alberto]

The next update on the storm should be out in 15-20 minutes. Can't wait to see if it's strengthened any! I'm hoping for a minimal hurricane.

[Tropical storm Alberto]

Where exactly is the eye. I thougth the center of the storm was to the left of the huge blob of convection?

[Tropical storm Alberto]

Georgia doesn't have a shoreline on the Gulf. ;-) They've issued flood watches for the counties to my south in the Florida big bend. Expecting flooding, even with a minimal storm surge in Apalachie Bay area.

[Tropical storm Alberto]

Are 19 ft waves normal for a storm this small?

[Tropical storm Alberto]

Woooo! Here comes Alberto! With every advisory release, the forecast track brings the eye closer and to my area. If this things continues to get stronger me may see some gusty winds!

[Atlantic Tropical Waves]

000

ABNT20 KNHC 092116

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

530 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE

NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A CIRCULATION HAS FORMED BETWEEN

HONDURAS AND WESTERN CUBA. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR

DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THIS

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...BRINGING ADDITIONAL

HEAVY RAINS PRIMARILY TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS

SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF

NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE

SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH

SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Atlantic Tropical Waves]

The lastest GFDL model run takes this storm to hurricane status and sends it into Taylor & Dixie county Florida. If both intensity and track hold up then I might see some pretty gusty Tropical Storm force winds at my house.

I marked where I live with a little squiggly.

[Atlantic Tropical Waves]

000

ABNT20 KNHC 091524

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN

SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW

PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS

MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND UPPER-LEVEL

WINDS THAT ARE ONLY SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL

DEVELOPMENT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE

NEXT OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM

TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. EVEN IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION

DOES NOT FORM...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH

SATURDAY.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

$$

[Atlantic Tropical Waves]

oOoOo!

This will be one for me to watch out for. If it heads for the panhandle and into Georgia, we could get a lot of rain. We need the rain though, so.

Looking at the IR Loop, things do certainly look more "together".

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

The second one took quite a while to load for some reason, so I took a screen cap of it.

THEN:

NOW:

[Atlantic Tropical Waves]

Welp, just checked out the GFDL model and it seems to forecast something developing in the Pacific and crosses Mexico, holding together and reforming over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This could get interesting!

[Atlantic Tropical Waves]

Hmm, One model seems to want something to form in the Carrib. sea and then sends it into the Florida panhandle and on up into Georgia.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?...&hour=Animation

I'm not really up on how these models and stuff work, but what's the chance of that being correct? I live in southwestern Georgia, so this could prove interesting.

[Waiting For Wilma!]

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR

FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND

23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE

DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT.

SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION...

WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 90

KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LAST AIRCRAFT

DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT. THIS MAY BE

CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS THE 12 HR MOTION OF 285/7...ALTHOUGH FOR THE

PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE EYE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST AND

PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER. WILMA IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE

EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND

SOUTHEAST OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGES SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE

NEXT 36-48 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN

ARIZONA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD. THE RIDGES SHOULD

COLLAPSE COMPLETELY AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE

EASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER 72 HR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE

WILMA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN

NORTHWARD...THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AFTER 72 HR. ALL

MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE

IS SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACTLY WHERE WILMA WILL RECURVE BETWEEN THE

LEFT-MOST GFDN AND RIGHT-MOST UKMET. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS

ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48 HR BASED ON THE

CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST

TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL

CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY

AGREE ON HOW THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE...AND THESE

DIFFERENCES COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHAT PARTS OF

FLORIDA WILMA WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. THE CURRENT

RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING WILMA

TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A

SURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT.

HOWEVER...SSM/I DATA SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE EYEWALL

COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY MOAT ALREADY PRESENT

OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. OUTSIDE OF THAT IS A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND

THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER WIND MAXIMUM.

THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC

EYEWALL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND SINCE THE INNER EYE IS

SO SMALL THERE COULD BE NOTABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE OUTER EYEWALL

CONTRACTS. SINCE THESE CYCLES ARE HARD TO TIME...THE INTENSITY

FORECAST WILL HOLD AT 125 KT FROM 24-48 HR. WHEN WILMA MOVES INTO

THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS

SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT WILMA

WILL STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA

PENINSULA.

THE NOAA G4 JET FLEW ITS FIRST SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON

WILMA THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE IMPACT

ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.8N 82.1W 95 KT

12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W 110 KT

24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W 125 KT

36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W 125 KT

48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W 125 KT

72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W 115 KT

96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W 75 KT

$$

NNNN

------

What is so dreadful about a pinhole eye?

[Waiting For Wilma!]

000

WTNT34 KNHC 190231

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...WILMA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...SHOULD BECOME A MAJOR

HURRICANE IN A FEW HOURS...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE

HURRICANE WATCH SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS

NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO

CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF

MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF

YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE

HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD

CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT

185 MILES... 295 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT

405 MILES... 650 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH

...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS...WITH WILMA BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT AND

POSSIBLY BECOMING A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 155 MILES...250 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED

WINDS OF 50 MPH... 81 KH/HR...WITH A GUST OF 58 MPH... 94 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15

INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN

ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5

TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE

ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH

THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH

ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS

NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 82.1 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$

[Waiting For Wilma!]

That photo of Hurricane Gilbert is so..so...AHH! That thing looks so freaking awesome.

[Waiting For Wilma!]

Hmm, How safe is the Panhandle & Big Bend region with this one?

[Waiting For Wilma!]

Still A Depression....

000

WTNT44 KNHC 161435

TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

THERE HAVE BEEN NO DRAMATIC CHANGES TO THE ORGANIZATION OF THE

DEPRESSION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS MORE DEEP CONVECTION

NEAR THE CENTER WITH HINTS OF A LITTLE MORE BANDING. THE LATEST

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE UNCHANGED...AT

T2.5/35 KT...BUT AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SUCH A

BROAD WIND FIELD THE WINDS ARE PROBABLY STILL LAGGING THE SATELLITE

SIGNATURE. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING

THE DEPRESSION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER ASSESS THE STRENGTH

OF THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS EXTREMELY

FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH LOW SHEAR AND GOOD ANTICYCLONIC

OUTFLOW...AND THERE IS A DEEP SUPPLY OF WARM WATER IN THE NORTHWEST

CARIBBEAN. THE RAPID INSTENSIFICATION COMPONENT OF THE SHIPS MODEL

IS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT...

BUT A BETTER DEFINED INNER CORE STRUCTURE NEEDS TO FORM FIRST. THE

GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN

THREE DAYS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FACTORS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE TO

ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS

MODEL EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT FAVORS THE GFDL LATER ON.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL

HOURS...AND PERHAPS MAY HAVE DRIFTED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE

ADVISORY POSITION. THIS TOO...WILL BE BETTER ASSESSED WHEN THE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OF THE

FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS

CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...WITH THE MORE

DOMINANT ONE BEING LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A

MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION BUT WILL

SOON BE MOVING BY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE WESTWARD DRIFT TO RESUME

LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE

CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY ERODE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE

OVER THE GULF AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PROGRESSES EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN

REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN

NORTH AS THE RIDGE ERODES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WITH

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO

ACCELERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A SHADE FASTER THAN THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL

CONSENSUS.