WolfeEire

Just going through the ensembles and there is around 5 members of the 30 that entertain the idea of a slider low type battleground with the Atlantic system next Saturday. Exhibit A below. It doesn't have much support but maybe worthwhile seeing if support for that scenario increases.

That rapid GFS op warmup on Friday is an extreme outlier. This is the GEFS for Dublin

Icon too. Turns milder early Friday

It will be literally up in the air for sure! Right now, all models show a mild sector in some shape or form. It shouldn't translate into a corresponding warmup at surface level due to a combination of factors. It would make conditions less conducive for snowfall wherever precipitation occurs. Looks like a second half of Tuesday episode. Turns much colder again Wednesday.

The 6zgfs is a low resolution control run so yes, it doesn't have the same level of starting data as the 18z

ICON 12Z has a better angle on the incoming cold airmass (northerly) due to the heights retreating further west than they did on the 00z

The state of play for 1am on Tuesday. All quite similar.

Another GFS op run which looks like it will probably be a mix of the good, the bad and the ugly. Good entertainment but better off waiting for the GEFS.

The forecast deep pool of cold over North America invariably fires up the jetstream and allows for rapid movement across the Atlantic as seen in the GEFS mean. The only positive is that the jetstream isn't aimed right at us but carrying systems more toward western france, which sets up the potential for some parts of UK to be on the right side of sliding lows. Whether there will be enough of a colder airmass to the north of these sliders to produce snow here is another matter.

The most significant change in the GFS mean that I have spotted is the squeezing of the Greenland block and the PV spill of colder airmass into North America. The latter usually creates a westerly -NAO, hence why that colder push from the north into Ireland/UK is less impactful and longlasting. It is in keeping somewhat with the UKMO's idea of a battleground scenario for UK/Ireland. The same pattern is not as obvious in the UKMO and ECM until later next week while the GFS sets up such a scenario from early doors. Just an observation rather than a forecast. Forgive my rudimentary arrows.

Have you a link to this please @met4cast?

Met Eireann in the evening update state: NEXT WEEKEND: Current indications suggest that next weekend, there may be a change with our weather becoming milder and with rain developing. /images/OG-icon.jpg National Forecast - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service WWW.MET.IE Met Éireann, the Irish National Meteorological Service, is the leading provider of weather information and related services for Ireland. The long range forecast they posted yesterday is based on the EPS as far as I know and sticks rigidly to it. That EPS commented would have been based on yesterday's 00z output.

Met Eireann this evening suggesting a milder outcome for next weekend, for Ireland at least. Met.ie