jamesbhx
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Posts posted by jamesbhx
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Gust of 62kts (71mph) reported at Redhill Aerodrome, Surrey. https://twitter.com/atcfrase/status/434444103678722048/photo/1
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Ensembles of tomorrows and saturdays low. Saturdays is the southerlier of the two plots.
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Certainly the threat of coastal flooding should not be underestimated. The Environment Agency already have a lot of Flood Alerts out for the south and southeast coast which I'm sure will see a number of them upgraded to warning over the next 12-18hrs or so.
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Just in a hold - strange squawk though - 4444
Freight flight Coventry to Exeter, didn't managed to land at Exeter so diverting to Stansted. Gatwick have only had 2 aircraft manage to land out of the last 9. Latest forecast for Gatwick is up to 55kts until around 4am. Certainly the strongest gusts in these parts that I can remember for a while.
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Gatwick Airports forecast has been revised up for the wind between 1200 tomorrow lunchtime through to 0400 on 24th. 32KT (37mph) mean speed with 55KT (63mph) gusts
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Bit worrying seeing 925mb winds so strong across Sern England just ahead/along cold front surging east/southeast tomorrow PM. 75knts (86mph) +. Likely squall line convection near front could easily bring these low-level jet winds to the surface in gusts, bringing the prospect of some dangerous damaging gusts even inland:
Yes this ties in with the conversations we've had at work today with the MetO. The feeling in aviation terms is 50-60Kts should be experienced quite widely along the south coast (Can't speak for other areas I'm afraid) with a chance of 60-70Kts in more exposed places. That was based on this mornings data but as I was on the early shift I havn't seen the updated info yet. Certainly the forecast gusts for Gatwick tomorrow are 45kts and Stansted 50kts but both are pretty well inland.
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This is what we got sent at Shoreham Airport earlier.
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Redhill aerodrome reporting a gust of 54Kts on its equipment. Can't verify this but I know the equipment there is calibrated so can't be far out.
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Yes don't believe anything about 80KTS for tonight, that is well above all reasonable estimates. Above 70kts, radar heads (that dont have golf ball style domes on them) are required to be stopped due to the pressure and stress on the gearing mechanism. As of now there is no such chance or information that says that will occur. If it does then it'll be a freak event not picked up by any model or forecast!
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I think Sky must be quoting from a dubious source regarding the wind at Heathrow. Information provide to me as of 2300 is for the strength to be no greater than 55KTS. Luton and Stansted may reach 60 however. The upper winds at 1000ft and 3000ft are likely to be 80kts, it may be these that they've mistakenly quoted.
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Met Office chart for 0600 tomorrow morning. Issued 2200 this evening.
All London airports currently showing a predicted gust of up to 60KT between 0400-0800. Bristol and Cardiff airports showing between 45-60KTS between 0400-0600. Neither Southampton, Shoreham or Lydd airports on the south coast are open overnight so there is currently no forecast data for these immediate areas.
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Here is another update from a teleconference that I was in an hour ago with the Met Office and various aviation agencies and departments.
The low is expected to track across a line drawn Milford Haven to the Wash. The strongest winds are expected to be around the Bristol/Cardiff area between 0000-0300 identified by a feature on recent high res modelling to the western side of the low (described as a pressure surge on the western flank). The estimate for these areas is a wind speed of 45-50KTS with gusts of around 70KTS with a 30% chance of gusts in excess of 70KTS.
The London area should see winds averaging around 40KTS between 0300-0600 with a chance of gusts in the 60KT region.
The south coast of England should see mean winds between 40-50KT with gusts of 60-70KTS. Exposed coasts and hills may see higher mean wind speeds and gusts but not expected to be much greater than 70KTS.As an aside, the night time flying ban at Heathrow has been lifted for tonight to allow eastbound transatlantic traffic to land early. Eastbound flights are projected to arrive earier due to a strong jet.
The low system should clear England by 0900.
Information accurate as of 1430 this afternoon using industry specific information.
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Friends due to fly out from Heathrow 9am Monday morning. Not good I suspect with cancellations and delays almost inevitable on a busy and v windy Monday morning.
I suspect crosswinds are the greatest issue for airports. Heathrow has two East-West runways. Does anyone know if there are set parameters for takeoff/landings at Heathrow?
Its quite possible that Heathrow may operate through the night on Sunday night/Monday morning and do-away with the night flying restrictions for one day. This is to allow eastbound transatlantic traffic to land early, ahead of the main windfield. I understand this decision is still pending. There will be delays, thats already been accepted as the landing rate will be reduced - the same can be said for other airports in the south east. I know that a number of London airports are not taking diversions, so if you can't get in to one of the London airports you'll likely end up at Birmingham/East Mids/Manchester or further north.
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If the low is in the Bristol Channel and 9 hours later is in Cardigan Bay it has moved NW not NE?
It was phrased as "The Bristol Channel" but I would really describe it as the Southwest Approaches going off the information I was given. Certainly well west of landfall at that time and the low does take a pretty much constant NE track.
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I've just come out of a teleconference with various airports, air traffic control and the Met Office regarding the situation Sunday night in to Monday morning. The current industry specific breif is as follows:
The low should be in or around the Bristol channel (Southwest Approaches) by 2100 Sunday moving NE. At 0600 Monday its expected to be Cardigan Bay with a central pressure of 966mb still moving NE. It should clear the Lincolnshire coast by 1200. Anywhere inland south of a line drawn Plymouth to Norwich should see winds of 35-40KT (40-50mph) with occasional gusts up to 60KT (70mph). Exposed hills and coastal locations along the south coast could see a mean wind of 50-60KT with gusts in the 70-80KT region between the hours of 0400-1000. There is also an "outside chance" of somewhere seeing in excess of 80KTS (92mph) for a short while, most likely somewhere along the Dorset coast across to Kent.Any storm surge/swell along the south coast should be around 6ft above the mean. We are in the neap tide range, so tides are not as high.The estimate is that this low should be around 20mb less and on average around 20-30KTS less severe than the 1987 storm.Information above is accurate as of 1430 this afternoon.
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Transportation impacts seem inevitable.
Expecting 10s-100s of flights to be cancelled at the London airports (35kts max gust for an aircraft movement). Plus wind shear must be an issue for any lull in the gusts.
It depends on the wind direction and the forecast direction is west or southwesterly. All the London airports have runway orientations in this direction. 35kts by itself means nothing. 70kts is when things get interesting as thats generally the structural limit for airbridges and rotating radar heads.
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If I were a betting man (and based on available charts and info) I would say anywhere 50 miles either side of a line basically running M1/M6 up as far as Manchester is prime terrority for any storms this afternoon and evening. The presence of wind convergence, a slow NE-moving trough and information from aviation sources form the basis for my opinion.
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A lovely comfortable 18.4c on the coast at Shoreham by Sea in Sussex.
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As some have already said, cooler than average sea surface temps surrounding the UK will likely act as an inhibitor against any really warm spell this summer.
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The 8km res chart for 1500 tomorrow afternoon. This is about the furthest west that any snow is forecast. It drags back eastwards after 1500.
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6cm at Shoreham Airport so far although you would think its 60 based on some of the driving standards Ive witnessed on the road this morning.
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Tomorrow morning? The rain isn't due to hit us until tomorrow afternoon when the 2nd front moves in....
The aviation forecasters at the Met have the next front projected to cross Gatwick at 11am onwards based on the latest data and thats currently showing as rain with the possibility of a rain/snow/sleety mix continuing until about 5-6pm thereafter clearing.
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Based on the official airports forecast for Heathrow, City and Gatwick, everywhere should see a light dusting of snow but turning readily to rain tomorrow morning. I'll be very suprised if anywhere from London southwards gets anymore than a centimeter of actual ground cover by the end of the night.
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There was a thunderstorm in the Shoreham/Brighton vicinity between 1830 and 1900 this evening. A few flashes of forked lightening and loud thunder with some torrential rain and gusty winds. Anyone else witness it? It was one of the best I've seen this year funnily enough!
South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 13/02/14
in Regional
Posted
http://www.ukpowernetworks.co.uk/faultmap/External_Iview-nofilter.html For anyone who gets their electricity supply from UK Power Networks, they have a page on their site which shows all the current power outages. Theres loads of them!