jamesbhx
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Posts posted by jamesbhx
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High-res surface wind plot last updated at 1844 for 0300 and 0500. Wind speeds in knots. Courtesy of: http://www.windfinde...t_animation.htm
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This guy on youtube gives a clear and balanced view of what may happen over the next 24hrs.
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Yes, its mean wind speed as far as I'm aware. The definition of a gust, certainly in terms of aviation is 10kts (11.5mph) above the mean so if storm force 10 is anything to go by then I'd expect any mean wind speeds to be in the 55-63mph area with gusts from 66-74mph. This is still broadly in line with that the various models and agencies are saying.
I certainly wouldnt rule out the odd exposed place on higher ground to get a sniff of 80mph. I'm thinking the eastern side of the south downs really.
Edit: As Boar says above.
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The shipping forecast for "Thames, Dover and Wight" later is giving "Southeast 5 or 6, veering southwest 7 to severe gale 9, occasionally storm 10 later." This would be in line with the beaufort scale 55-63mph for storm 10.
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A lot of it depends on where exactly the low tracks, even a shift of 50 miles would change the strength of wind that one particular area gets. Brest and Dinard are forecasting gusts of 45kts from 3pm tomorrow afternoon onwards. I'm still fairly confident that anywhere along the south coast round towards Essex could see peak gusts in the 60mph region on Saturday night in to early Sunday morning. The BBC and MetO are going with a similar sort of figure and based on the latest runs I see no reason to doubt it.
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I think 60mph along the southeast coast is quite likely, certainly from the aviation forecast package that we recieve at work. We had 50mph for most of yesterday with a slacker pressure gradient than the one currently forecast on the charts for Saturday night in to Sunday.
The current forecast track of the low and position of the fronts is almost identical to that of the '87 hurricane funnily enough, albeit with quite a difference in pressure.
http://metofficenews.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/pressure_chart1-1.jpg 1987 fax chart
http://cdn.nwstatic..../fax/PPVI89.png - Saturday/Sunday chart
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Thunder heard in Shoreham by Sea, West Sussex. Moderate to heavy precipitation.
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The main GFS run still seems to be overdoing the 2m temperatures by 4-5 degrees for the coming weekend. The rest of the model runs including the mean and control sit slightly cooler. 850mb temps are also slightly overdone during the same period. It still looks like mid 20s for the weekend for most areas but I'm still not convinced about the elusive 30c mark based on the latest run.
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As mushyman says above, a transient feature. Any run suggesting 30c is in the realms of fantasy im afraid. The ensembles show those temps are isolated to a model run of their own. I'm not expecting to see much above 23-25c (mid afternoon peaks) confined to the south east for next weekend.
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Thunder heard in Horsham/Gatwick vicinity a few minutes ago.
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Red warning is gone?
It is there, between Plymouth and Exeter for midnight tonight to 1800 tomorrow evening.
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Funnel cloud reported at Jersey airport around 1520 this afternoon.
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http://www.flughafen...6&id=1&webCam=5 Large storm just passing through the airport at the moment
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As someone who works in air traffic control and has access to information direct from the Met Office and other professional sources, I'm not expecting anything apart from isolated or scattered thunderstorms to happen. The area most likely to see some action when I last looked at the charts at work earlier was anywhere east of a line running London - Birmingham - Blackpool with the focus around the Nottinghamshire/Lincolnshire area. This seemed to suggest any CB development taking place east of that line from mid morning onwards until the later afternoon hours. Other areas will likely just see frontal/convective rain.
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Its anaprop. Basically a radar artifact due to a variety of reasons. Usually these are removed automatically by radar processors but occasionally they find their way through. Essentially there is nothing there, its an error. RAF Valley are not reporting any precipitation at the moment so you can safely say there is nothing of note there.
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While I don't mind warmth when I'm going on holiday or having time off work, I've never been a fan of anything above about 20-25c in England unless it produces thunderstorms! I suffer from hayfever and due to shift work its almost impossible to sleep during the day during warm summer days. I've actually invested in air conditioning for my apartment to help with that and its currently set to a very comfortable 16c! I must have icelandic or arctic genes in my body as I rarely have the heating on in the winter as it is.
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There were a few flashes and a downpour from a tiny cell just south of Gatwick at around 1930 this evening. It dissapeared almost as quickly as it developed!
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Just been sent to me from a collegue at Coventry Airport. Happened about an hour ago.
EGBE 201320Z 33005KT 300V360 9999 VCSH VCFC SCT028 SCT042 FEW040CB 16/11 Q1008
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Aircraft reporting CB tops around 38000ft in the Kent/Sussex area with significant icing and hail.
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I would certainly not write this potential off until Midnight at the earliest. The latest aviation chart for 0000z (1am local time) is below and clearly shows the position of the trough and cold front.
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The N.E. wind over the south east is mainly a surface wind, the rain over France may ride over the N.E. wind, and move into the the south on sunday evening...
Indeed, the jetstream (albeit rather slack) which can provide an element of steering is actually flowing in the opposite direction to the surface wind on Sunday.
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ummm I'm confused(not hard I know! :-) ) but radar wise it looks reall clear so why then is it looking all of a sudden rather black and a little menacing out here???? (not complaining ,just confused)
Two possible reasons:
1. The radar only reflects objects of a certain size so if there is no actual precipitation falling then there is nothing to be reflected.
2. That black and menacing cloud may be in what is called the "Radar shadow". Basically, If another object i.e a large cumulonimbus cloud with precipitation is sat between the 2nd cloud and the radar dish then it can act as a block. Essentially the 2nd cloud cannot be "seen" by the radar as there is the CB in the way and therefore isn't displayed. Radar isn't completely foolproof and so various anomalies can occur from time to time.
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Ive attatched the latest aviation chart from the Met Office for 0000z (1am local). Anywhere in area B1 has a chance, but personally I would say anywhere between the trough and the cold front is the most likely place for something through the early hours of the morning but whether it will turn electric is a different matter.
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Quite an active little cell here at the moment. Thunder every 30 seconds or so for about the last 10 minutes. Not much in the way of precipitation despite what the radar echo shows. Seems to be heading due east.
South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ November 19th 2012>
in Regional
Posted
Shoreham Beach weather station is currently showing 36.8mph with a maximum of 39.6mph with the pressure falling at -2.4mb/hr