EDITED BY OON: - as provided by Ken on January 12th. With December promising to be quite mild, the UK winter this year should mainly occupy January through to March and should not be as cold or colder than last winter. The reason for this has nothing to do with manmade climate change and everything to do with the positioning of the lunar perigees, which are closest next year in February. The November perigee on the 10th of the month will be #13 for 2005, meaning that the moon is the 13th closest to Earth in that month, and at that distance its power is relatively diminished. Perigee #13 seldom brings really severe weather and unless coupled with a maximum declination or full or new moon can often pass unnoticed. November should deliver precipitation for most from the 19th-27th and in some areas extending to December 4th. These should be afternoon and evening showers, cold and with some sleet in northern districts to begin with, but after 26th any rain should be warmer with less chance of snow or hail. Coastal locations should experience milder conditions than elevated inland parts. Perigee #10 on December 5th occurs close on the heels of a southern declination, bringing relatively warm rains for December in the week before. The full moon of December 16th does not hold the promise of snow, only frosts and mostly clear days. Because this year's December full moon couples with northern declination closer to apogee than perigee, after the 4th most of December should be more dry than wet and the next time for significantly increased precipitation is likely to be over the last few days of the month, so a white Xmas for anywhere in the UK is not very likely. It will not be far away however, and snow and rain is expected to start on or just after Boxing Day, falling mainly at night. Having said that, and because I request a 3-4 day operating trend window, I suppose it must be said that there is the small chance of weather systems arriving early and snow indeed falling on Xmas Day. But the chance is small. January will have two perigees, #8 for 2006 on January 2nd, meaning the eighth closest for the year, and perigee #4 on the 30th. Thus the last few days of December and spilling into the New Year should see cold winter rain/snow but the coldest part of January may be once again in the last few days of the month. In Ireland the first three days of the year may be more dry than wet. Northern Scotland, Wales and Cornwall and greater part of England may see clearer weather about the 3rd-4th. For all except Lancashire eastwards morning rain may arrive from the 6th onwards. Around the full moon on the 14th daytime snow should come thick and fast perhaps even reaching S England and Suffolk, with falls easing in the south around the 18th and easing for the rest of the country around 25th-29th. Around January 30th most regions should get a return of snow and bad winter weather, with falls again overnight. The coldest winter month should be February, with perigee #1 combining with New moon on the 28th, making days around this day the expected worst of the month. March may also turn colder around the last week, with perigee #5 on March 28th. Winter snowfalls could continue as far down as Cumbria into April, but only until the middle of the month. On April 13th winter showers will dramatically cease for most, and clearer weather will arrive. The widespread feeling will be that winter will be over . Following winter, spring should be milder in 2006, without the searing heat of recent years and summer heat is not likely to not kick in till later in the season, with August and September possibly the warmest months of summer. October, too, should be mild and the autumn should turn out to be pleasantly warm. The following winter of 2006/7 should be very mild. Ken Ring www.predictweather.com
