Ken Ring
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Posts posted by Ken Ring
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Ken, quoting someone out of context is hardly scientifically ignorant. Do you actually believe that this happens, "the cold of space come down and condenses"? Is that what you actually said?
The cold of space can't condense, obviously, so it's a misquote. The colder air is heavier though, and falls through thinner upper air which is why mountaintops have snow and why open-top freezer doors can be left open. Now, add this fact to the changing airtide and you will appreciate that when the moon is out of the sky the airtide goes "out". If the moon is gone at night(new moon) then the colder air will come closer to ground level than at a time when the moon is in the sky all night(full moon). You will still get frosts on a full moon but it is unlikely to snow during a winter full moon night.
Ken Ring
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Ken Ring.... hmmm........ when I see comments like this, "scientifically ignorant" springs to mind
He says "when there is no moon in the sky, the air goes out, the cold of space comes down and condenses".
"When there is a full moon, the clouds are pushed away, and it's warmer", Mr Ring adds.
Quoting me out of context is a misquote and if you did it in an attempt to make me look silly, you only succeeded in your own scientific ignorance. In the first sentence quoted I was referring only to new moon night conditions with rain about. In the second quote; full moon night conditions around midnight.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com
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I will try to answer some recent questions.
"I know your views have been very unpopular here on nw in the past but perhaps you will find more open and tolerent minds with lots of new members"
Sounds good, and if my messages will not be deleted we may end up with useful discussions.
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"Don't we only have one moon?
Yes, but we talk about new moons in the way of one of the ancient Arabic cultures, which dictated that each new moon was a different moon arriving, and that when one died the souls went to the place where all the old moons were. Rather quaint and I suppose quite logical.
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"Ken you do however go into surprisingly specific detail as to predicted snowfall in southern areas in the mornings between 25th and 28th February 2007...
That is not a trend but a detailed forecast for a 4 day period for a relatively small geographical area".
It is still a trend, but even a trend must have a focus. This is what I mean by confusing assessment precedures for longrange with those used for short term. I could say when I am 90 I will probably go to Fiji but that doesn't mean the day I am 90 or that I won't end up on a neighboring island.
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"Please would you advise as to what you mean by "elevated and northern districts": are you really forecasting/predicting snow over the highest ground away from the north in the third week of June (e.g. Dartmoor, Snowdonia, Peak District, Pennines and Lake District?) or do you mean high ground in the north (i.e. the Scottish Highlands).
Both of those could be included, as well as north-facing ranges further to the south.
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"I am not aware that snow has fallen in England and Wales at any elevation that late in Junein the last 150 years or more...(in 1975 several inches of snow were recorded at Buxton at the very beginning of June)".
I agree it is unusual. That is the nature of weather, to go in cycles. As such, there are peaks and quiet periods. We should stop being surprised about any extreme events, because they eventually give averages. The mistake is to make the norm the expectancy. It is only a mean expectancy. We should also expect the extreme to be part of the norm. This error of human thinking has fed and milked the climate change hysteria. We have always had extreme weather, look at any page in the bible.
Regards
Ken Ring
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Hahhaha.
Telling it like it is - as usual.
My forecast has been out for a couple of weeks and avaliable on http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=39
It lists drier periods till the end of 2007 and is general for the whole country. The emphasis is on trends, which is the nature of longrange forecasting. The common mistake is to evaluate such work using terms of reference devised for short term. The usefulness lies not in the detail but in the potential for longer term planning. Moon-weather deniers will, however, find probably fault regardless. That prediction alone carries 100% confidence!
It may interest some readers here that I have a new book out published by Random House (NZ) called 'The Lunar Code', which explains and proves the lunar cycles, and enables anyone to perform longrange forecasting for any year or season ahead. I basically wrote it for professional forecasters and farmers. Without an awareness of what I am claiming, any discussion of the method on this forum is premature and uninformed. The ISBN is 1-86941-852-2
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com
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EDITED BY OON: - as provided by Ken on January 12th.
With December promising to be quite mild, the UK winter this year should mainly occupy January through to March and should not be as cold or colder than last winter. The reason for this has nothing to do with manmade climate change and everything to do with the positioning of the lunar perigees, which are closest next year in February. The November perigee on the 10th of the month will be #13 for 2005, meaning that the moon is the 13th closest to Earth in that month, and at that distance its power is relatively diminished. Perigee #13 seldom brings really severe weather and unless coupled with a maximum declination or full or new moon can often pass unnoticed. November should deliver precipitation for most from the 19th-27th and in some areas extending to December 4th. These should be afternoon and evening showers, cold and with some sleet in northern districts to begin with, but after 26th any rain should be warmer with less chance of snow or hail. Coastal locations should experience milder conditions than elevated inland parts.
Perigee #10 on December 5th occurs close on the heels of a southern declination, bringing relatively warm rains for December in the week before. The full moon of December 16th does not hold the promise of snow, only frosts and mostly clear days. Because this year's December full moon couples with northern declination closer to apogee than perigee, after the 4th most of December should be more dry than wet and the next time for significantly increased precipitation is likely to be over the last few days of the month, so a white Xmas for anywhere in the UK is not very likely. It will not be far away however, and snow and rain is expected to start on or just after Boxing Day, falling mainly at night. Having said that, and because I request a 3-4 day operating trend window, I suppose it must be said that there is the small chance of weather systems arriving early and snow indeed falling on Xmas Day. But the chance is small.
January will have two perigees, #8 for 2006 on January 2nd, meaning the eighth closest for the year, and perigee #4 on the 30th. Thus the last few days of December and spilling into the New Year should see cold winter rain/snow but the coldest part of January may be once again in the last few days of the month. In Ireland the first three days of the year may be more dry than wet. Northern Scotland, Wales and Cornwall and greater part of England may see clearer weather about the 3rd-4th. For all except Lancashire eastwards morning rain may arrive from the 6th onwards. Around the full moon on the 14th daytime snow should come thick and fast perhaps even reaching S England and Suffolk, with falls easing in the south around the 18th and easing for the rest of the country around 25th-29th. Around January 30th most regions should get a return of snow and bad winter weather, with falls again overnight.
The coldest winter month should be February, with perigee #1 combining with New moon on the 28th, making days around this day the expected worst of the month. March may also turn colder around the last week, with perigee #5 on March 28th. Winter snowfalls could continue as far down as Cumbria into April, but only until the middle of the month. On April 13th winter showers will dramatically cease for most, and clearer weather will arrive. The widespread feeling will be that winter will be over .
Following winter, spring should be milder in 2006, without the searing heat of recent years and summer heat is not likely to not kick in till later in the season, with August and September possibly the warmest months of summer. October, too, should be mild and the autumn should turn out to be pleasantly warm.
The following winter of 2006/7 should be very mild.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com
Ken Ring's Winter Forecast
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Less cold refers to the northern hemisphere as a trend, and what expectancy might be regarded as average. A colder winter would imply snow records getting broken, or more blizzards than would be expected. Using less cold is just an expression of perception based on expectancy. Last Xmas Moscow reached -32C. If that city got down to -10C this year I'd say less cold for them, and I would have my doubts that they would reach anywhere near -32C this coming season because northern declinations will not be as high. The UK has a different weather pattern, of course, because of the warming of the Gulf Stream, but trends will be the same. Cycles like maximum declination, perigees and corresponding concurrences of lunar equinoxes will still rule what happens in both countries according to their latitudes and elevations.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com
author of The Lunar Code(Random House Publishers)