Scribbler

Hi Grey Wolf and BFTP I’m not so sure that isostatic uplift is yet occurring in Antarctica. Surely that only occurs once the overlaying icecap melts – the loss of weight allowing the land to ‘rebound’. The Antarctica ice sheet hasn’t lost that much ice to allow any degree of rebound as yet. I am somewhat curious about the various lakes and rivers that they’re finding beneath the ice in Antarctica though. I know that they’re saying that they’ve been there for millenniums – but how come they’re only just finding them – and in such apparent quantity. Does their existence have any relationship to your comments about the ice being eaten away from the bottom up? Collapse of the ice sheets? Most unlikely in the manner that you suggest.

To extend my original discussion – let’s not forget to include Europe’s problems. http://www.terradaily.com Alarm Bells Sound For European Water Supply As Hot Weather Looms Paris (AFP) Jun 15, 2006 Summer has still to make its official start in Europe, yet many countries are sweating - and it has less to do with the immediate temperature than out of worry for their water supplies. Half a dozen countries are on course for water short ages that will be socially disruptive and economically costly, experts and officials say. Southern Spain, south-eastern England and western and southern France are viewed as chronically vulnerable, while eyes are anxiously following water availability in parts of Portugal, Italy and Greece, incompletely recovered from the scorcher of three years ago. In Spain, reservoirs and water tables are at their lowest levels in 10 years, failing to recharge after last year's drought, which was the worst since reliable record-keeping began in 1947. In south-eastern England, reserves of water are only at 54 percent of capacity, after the driest winter since 1963-4. Local suppliers are scrambling for alternative sources, looking at the possibility of transporting water by tanker ship from Scotland and Norway - and even of building a desalination plant for London. In France, the authorities have for months been building public awareness that the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions face big problems of water scarcity. In Italy, most of the country has still to recover from the 2003 drought, a smaller version of which hit northern regions again in 2005. The country is officially classified along with Cyprus, Italy and Spain as "water-stressed," meaning that withdrawal of water is 20 percent more than totally available supplies. In Portugal, 2005 brought the worst drought in 60 years, prompting the government to propose a programme of dam construction and improved water management. Ronan Uhel, head of spatial analysis at the European Environment Agency (EAA) in Copenhagen, said "Summers are getting hotter, demand for water is increasing and at the same time, rainfall is decreasing." The shift in precipitation has been especially felt in the Iberian peninsula, western France, southern Britain and Ireland, which get their rainfall from the warm, moist winds off the Atlantic. On the other hand, northern latitudes and central and eastern Europe, as well as northern Britain, have had normal or even above-average rainfall this year. Source: Agence France-Presse

So 6 billion people all coughing out CO2; building new industrial conurbations; using fossil fuels; tearing down forests, etc, etc, have nothing to do with climate change? Come On............!!!!!!!!!! Tell me you're joking!!!!!!!

Hi drgl Ah – but the BBC is next to Holy, isn’t it. Thou shalt not take the word of the BBC in vain!! It’s logical to assume that any headline news may well eventually be made into a Hollywood film and despite all our cynicism and bad-mouthing, these recent films do awaken people to global problems. An Inconvenient Truth; The Day After Tomorrow and The Perfect Storm are just three examples of the film-makers works that have used current news scenarios to make blockbuster headlines. I’m sure that there are numerous other films that have portrayed other ‘disasters’ waiting to happen. Any offers? :blink: As for politicians ‘saving the world’ – there isn’t one who isn’t spouting his or her so-called gospel without trying to claim a few more votes when it matters. And they all need good band-wagons (e.g. global warming) to climb (or cling) onto!

No-one seems to have noted that the film is essentially a visualised version of one of Al Gore's lectures that he's been giving for many years. I don't like politicians anyway and to trust a failed US Presidential candidate (etc) to give a clear and unbiased message is asking too much. :blink: Sure - there is a message but the film (and his lectures) do indeed sensationalise the truth.

I note that the date of the Scientific Aliance report is July 2003 I've a feeling that what they say has been analysed and refuted to death in the past three years.

I couldn't agree more. However, it does make me wonder - how many of the other stastistics that are fed to us have been massaged?

Pass!!!

Good evening all I think that the site you're looking for is http://www.junkscience.com Scroll down to the "Warming" features box and select the records you want. It's all there - at least I hope it is!

I lived in Townsville in North Queensland from 1967 to 1976. Our summers were just six months of day-after-day sunshine and temperatures around 30C or more. I used to long to be able to draw in a lung-chilling breath of fresh cold air. Thats why 1976 in the UK felt so excessive - I think we recorded (in Chichester, W. Sussex) ten consecutive days of temperatures over 80F (27C) and many more were close to that figure. Oh - and winters in Townsville (daily temperatures around 23C) were almost as bad - rain most days around 4 pm - like clockwork. Variety is the spice of life - don't tell my missus! I also know when the drought ended - it was the day my honeymoon in Devon started! We came home the next day having been flooded out of our tent!!!! (Well - we thought that a bit of lying around in a hot sunny field with some cider would be quite, hmm - 'interesting' (! ? !) The marriage lasted a year!!!

Hot is one thing - heat is another!!! That was just one particularly HOT day in 1989. The summer of 1976 just went on and on - non-stop HEAT. That's what made it so memorable.

I must write out 100 times – “Do your research before you publish.” http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu Article: Researchers Assess Risks Associated with Living in Low-Lying Coastal Areas I quote: “Ten percent of the world's population lives in coastal areas that are less than 10 meters (33 feet) above sea level.” “In addition, about 360 million people live in low-elevation coastal zone urban areas which means that more people will be exposed to hazards such as sea-level rise and storm surges—phenomena that are expected to worsen as a result of global warming.” That's a hell of a lot of people who'll be looking for somewhere to live.

Good idea and topical. Hadn't thought to make a thread out of this - been using it for a while - interesting. Sobering isn't it, to play at being God? It's a pity that there isn't some kind of calculation attached to the maps that shows how many people will be affected by each metre rise in sea level. If not then approximately how many homes would be unusable or which main roads would be submerged.

Exactly………. things seem to have become consistently more biased against the Southeast – not just occasionally. Caused by what? High pressure blocking? Weaker depressions? Different storm tracking? Surely as GW increases (won’t it?) the lack of rain will extend to the central areas of Britain. In not too many years, only SW coastal areas will get sufficient rain for their needs – and not enough to export to other parts of the UK. I’ll be ok here in Somerset – but how will people living elsewhere in the UK manage? PS to Tws - your earlier comments about restrictions. The government can’t afford to upset too many people by telling them they must not wash cars; must not play golf (because the greens are browns); must not go to work (because there isn’t enough water for industry). Don’t slate the Water Industry either. Play safe – just make dry noises!

Hi SF – and others The general indications are that, as you say, the climate belts will shift and 5 degrees N or S seems to be a fair guess. It certainly will affect grain growing belts – as well as rice growing areas, which will suffer from an altered rainfall and climate. If we had the acreage available, we too would become a grain exporter if we were warmer but not if we became too dry. On a local basis, heavier rainstorms and stronger winds are much more likely to affect us if the climate belts do move. We don’t really suffer from storm erosion (yet) and only in East Anglia is there any degree of wind erosion. Thanks to our generally fairly heavy vegetation covering, storm erosion may never affect us, but if our climate does become much drier, which it appears to be doing, then flash flooding (when it occurs) will have a greater impact on a less well-covered landscape. As you say, the outlook doesn’t look too pretty – we’re going to be one of the losers, I think.

Technology News Webcam watchers see eagles' despair Millions of bird watchers riveted by a live internet video feed of Canadian bald eagles roosting on their eggs were heartbroken when the majestic pair discovered their last surviving egg had cracked and their eaglet apparently dead. The eagles screeched and looked confused, then resumed taking turns roosting on the remains - a despairing scene captured by a tiny video camera 120 feet up a Douglas fir tree on a website visited by animal lovers, teachers and students all over the world. The eagles have been coming back to the same nest off the Strait of Georgia in British Columbia for 17 years to have their offspring. 7.39pm Friday 5 May 2006 Copyright © Press Association Ltd. 2006, All Rights Reserved. It's very sad news. :lol: The site is moving to another nest later today.

I might have known someone would have brought it up before - sorry - missed your post. One of those old sayings that must surely have some truth. PS Baby sparrows are cheeping in their nest under my eaves tonight. Tuted off with the cold, I suggest!

Bon soir, Monsieur T. V. My brother lives down at Vanxians, about 70 miles inland from Bordeaux. Their well has run dry – despite the locals telling him that it would ‘never’ run dry. He has given up any hope of market gardening because everything is so dry. He is being plagued by termites which have moved up from North Africa. "Rain - what rain?" - he says to me. "Had some snow but it didn't last." But that was a while ago. I sympathise.

My summary for April in Taunton. Average maximum temperature = 16.6C Average minimum temperature = 4.7C Mean temperature = 10.70C or 2.60C above average. Warmest day on the 27th = 23.3C Coldest day on the 11th = 11.9C Warmest night on the 25th = 10.0C Coldest night on the 5th = -3.1C Ground Frosts = 7 Air frost = 3 Rainfall total = 17 mm Rainy Days = 6 Disclaimer I do accept that….... My garden faces south – but it’s a large garden. It is sheltered – but my thermometers are suitably placed and shielded. I do not have an automated weather station – but I do make regular check-ups. I am not infallible – but I do my best.

Speaking of ashes and oaks..................what about the old saw.......... "Oak before Ash, in for a splash. Ash before Oak, in for a soak." There are several oaks around here that are now in fairly full leaf. The ash in my mother's garden in Bridport is still bare. Hmmmm?

Ah ha!!! You've hit on the answer! Let's move London up to the highlands of Scotland! Speaking seriously - how long is "long term"? Surely the SE of UK with their 20 million people, all doing without water (or being unable to use their dishwashers ) for more than a few weeks/months, etc, can't be considered as a "long term" problem? Or can it?

Taking Britain as a whole, that seems to be a fair comment. However, typically, all the people are where the rain isn't - as usual. Except when they're on holiday! While those of you in Scotland may benefit from the continued rain, will the main bulk of the population have to change their ways of life? Surely we can't import enough water from the north to satisfy the south? There should be more water around due to the GW effect, etc - but if so, is it going to be distributed where we want it? Apparently not. Increased temperatures may cause more cloud and rain but the higher temperatures will cause greater evaporation too. What comes down must go up! So my question remains - what will Britain be like in say 30 years? We're bound to be warmer (if you believe in GW) but how much drier will we be? :blink:

Yep - the house martins have arrived in force. Thought that I saw some about a week ago but it was a fleeting sighting and it's only today that they have shown themselves - dozens of them checking out their old nest sites. Cuckoos have been scarce until earlier this week when a walk into the woods near us revealed two cuckoos shouting at each other. Spring has sprung!

Absolutely! I agree wholeheartedly! BUT......WE aren't getting it! Scotland and parts of Ireland may remain wet but I've a feeling that we're coming under the influence of a more southerly climate - drier; warmer (eventually) and with rain becoming more seasonally confined. Global warming should produce more precipitation but not necessarily over us. I'm banking on standpipes and rationing in the south before too long!

For some while I have been observing the UK water supply – generally dwindling. In many other parts of the world the same thing is happening – although I obviously accept that in certain places there is more precipitation than usual. My own records have given Taunton just 17 mm of rain this month – about 30% of average. Now, tonight, there are two programs on Channel 4 on the subject. My questions are: Are we running out of water? :o Are we, in the UK, getting less rain on the whole? What will happen over the next 30 years? :o Climate change will continue to alter our rainfall – will we eventually get more or less? Is the Mediterranean climate coming our way? And – how would we cope with perhaps 50% less rain?