Scribbler

Noon reading Temperature 13.5C (56.3F) Max Today 14.5C (58.1F) Small amount of sunshine earlier today but clouding over. Wind Westerly – earlier gusts to 24 kph Barometer 1005mb falling 12.31 PM – rain just starting to fall.

I think that one of the problems is that this time round there seems to be a natural cycle of warming (with naturally increasing CO2) but we’ve added to it all the other man-made pollutants. Between our pollutants and the natural warming of the earth, things are now becoming critical and I think that the earth’s climate is getting off the beaten track. No-one – not even Mother Nature knows what is going to happen in the future. Much as I see the common sense of recycling and cutting back on pollutants of all kinds, things may just have gone too far and are out of control. A million people might all do as they’re told – a billion probably won’t – and six billion certainly won’t all behave like good green minimal-pollutant recyclers. :lol:

Interesting point there Pete. Global warming/change, etc, is something that has happened over such a short period of time that we've no real history to compare it with. It's almost a case of anyone's guess as to what the future will really hold!

Presumably you're saying that people get fixated about their views to the exclusion of other ideas? An open mind is an enquiring mind. And it's more fun that way too!

Which month will that happen? May?

My Taunton CET equivalent for March is 4.55 so far. Using forecast models to run to the end of the month, my CET equivalent should end up at about 5.75. Shows that its worthwhile living in the Westcountry!

Hello Pete – and others Alright – forget the chicken! What I’ve been trying to put over is that CO2 seems to be the ONLY atmospheric problem that we have, according to many people. My thought is that CO2 usually gets ALL the blame and because it’s always been there everyone seems to assume that it is the culprit. Although we are definitely adding to the CO2 we’re also producing plenty of other pollutants. What about such things as - Water vapour. SO2. Methane. Soot (from man-made forest fires as well as natural events such as volcanic eruptions). CFCs and Freon gas - which we’re still using. To mention but a few pollutants that have serious effects on our atmosphere. And my question was – which is cause and which is effect? In some ways it's pretty obvious as to which is which but sometimes it isn't so clear. Natural warming? Changes in sunshine levels? 6 billion people? Higher CO2 levels? Clearer or cleaner air? Etc.

Midday weather Warmest day of the year so far! Temperature 14.7C (58.5F) Some sunshine but about 80/20 cloud ratio. Showers threatening. Rain – 3.5 mm early today. Wind – max gust 22 mph but less windy now Barometer 991mb and rising

The root cause of global warming was when man lit the first fire. Ever since then we’ve been adding to the CO2 content of the atmosphere......but.......lots of things go hand-in-hand. Is the earth warming on a natural cycle? Are all our emanations of CO2 the cause – or the effect? Has scrubbing of SO2 helped or hindered? Are 6 billion humans too many for this world to support? Is the sun to blame? Etc, etc. Isn’t it a bit of a chicken and egg situation now? Surely, no single cause can be blamed. C02 may be the cause that everyone talks about but it’s always been there – so why does it seem to get all the blame?

That sounds a typical response to green lobbyists. Spend more money "looking into" the problem. Not actually doing anything - but spending a lot of money to make a lot of hot air B) Great post F-N. B) I'd like to say that you've said it all but.........

Don't worry - I've been called a lot worse! TWO suggests: April - below average May - close to or slightly above average. Others seem to say much the same or worse. The so-called "hot" forecasts are in the mind - wishful thinking perhaps!

Cloudy but the sun is trying to break through. Min overnight = -1.5C (29.3F) Temp Now = 5C (41F) Dry - no snow!

Hi BrickFielder – this pretty well ties in with your comments, I think. Forget CO2 – try blaming ice crystals! University of Leicester website http://www2.le.ac.uk - ebulletin/news/press-releases Greenhouse Theory Smashed by Biggest Stone According to Vladimir Shaidurov of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the apparent rise in average global temperature recorded by scientists over the last hundred years or so could be due to atmospheric changes that are not connected to human emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of natural gas and oil. Shaidurov explained how changes in the amount of ice crystals at high altitude could damage the layer of thin, high altitude clouds found in the mesosphere that reduce the amount of warming solar radiation reaching the earth's surface. He suggests that the rise, which began between 1906 and 1909, could have had a very different cause, which he believes was the massive Tunguska Event, which rocked a remote part of Siberia, northwest of Lake Baikal on the 30th June 1908. I’ve paraphrased the report but in essence he doesn’t blame us or CO2 at all. Hurray! I think.

Hello Pete I'm glad to find that it's just hearsay or similar. I was getting a bit worried because I couldn't find any mention of 12 times CO2 levels on other sites. Iceagenow.com was slated on that BBC program last night - quite an interesting site but a bit one-sided, obviously. NASA and IPCC - been there, done that, etc! :lol:

Down here in Taunton - We have a pair of blackbirds with a nest in a nice thickety lonicera bush. Two bluetits have taken over a nestbox on one of our trees and since I haven’t seen one of them recently, I suggest that she’s sitting on eggs – or laying them. In our South-facing, and largish but enclosed garden, daffodils are beginning to bloom. Snowdrops are almost finished. Our bluebells have flower buds but they’ll be a while before they open. Today’s news I killed a queen wasp today which was trying to get out of my shed, presumably having hibernated in there over winter. Also in the warmth today there were several bumble bees around (or just one being very busy). We have loads of frogspawn (which must have been laid (?) overnight) in our pond and haven’t had any ice on the pond for the last 10 days. Mowed my lawns for the first time this year – bit muddy but looking better for the trim. Spring is sprung – but for how long? :lol: :lol:

Can't let you retire yet!! Anyway, I'm older than you! :wacko: On those BBC2 programs last night (the second one) someone (whose name I missed) was expounding on the effect of ice melt. He suggested that the last time that the NAD shut down was after an ice age so there was an awful lot of ice melt. He said that possibly there wasn't enough ice there now to cause a total shutdown. Hi Cloudburst I'm with you - on one hand warming - on the other cooling. The ice will run out but the heat wont! :blush:

Oops! :blush: Amazing what a difference a 0 makes! :wacko:

Hi Pete I wish you'd tell me where you got that figure from - I can't find it! Surely 12 times today's level would mean 4,600 ppm or 4.6% CO2 in the atmosphere. Prehistoric man would have needed an oxygen mask!

Using figures from the CRU, I have checked to find out just how cold this winter is (so far) by comparison with others since 1900. The three winter months of 2005-6 have produced a CET of 13.2. For the months of December, January and February, no less than 54 out of 105 years have had colder winters periods than this one. 1900 – 1909 - 7 1910 – 1919 - 6 1920 – 1929 - 4 1930 – 1939 - 4 1940 – 1949 - 6 1950 – 1959 - 8 1960 – 1969 - 6 1970 – 1979 - 4 1980 – 1989 - 6 1990 – 1999 - 3 Admittedly the last were 1995-6 and 1996-7, but that’s less than ten years ago. Therefore we just have to admit that, as forecast, this winter is the worst for a decade – but it certainly isn’t exceptional and is hardly an omen of doom.

lol :unsure: But in this case I think that the government STILL don't know the full facts!

BBC News By David Shukman BBC science correspondent US climate scientists have recorded a significant rise in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, pushing it to a new record level. BBC News has learned the latest data shows CO2 levels now stand at 381 parts per million (ppm) - 100ppm above the pre-industrial average. The research indicates that 2005 saw one of the largest increases on record - a rise of 2.6ppm. "We don't see any sign of a decrease; in fact, we're seeing the opposite, the rate of increase is accelerating," Dr Pieter Tans told the BBC. The precise level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is of global concern because climate scientists fear certain thresholds may be "tipping points" that trigger sudden changes. "Today we're over 380 ppm," he said. "That's higher than we've been for over a million years, possibly 30 million years. Mankind is changing the climate." :huh: :unsure: So - if high CO2 levels equal greenhouse conditions - how come we're not already "on the boil"? :huh: Or are we?

http://www.terradaily.com – today’s news. Study Previews Ice Sheet Melting Rapid Climate Change “The behavior of a massive ice sheet that existed in northern Europe at the end of the last Ice Age has been outlined for the first time, and researchers believe it may provide a sneak preview of how major ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will act in the face of global warming.” “The study, which will be published Friday in the journal Science by researchers from Oregon State University, shows that ice sheets can react quite differently depending on the climatic conditions at the time global warming occurs – sometimes actually growing larger and sometimes rapidly disappearing, depending on whether increased snow offsets melting effects, or not.” "This study clearly showed that when the climate was warming but still pretty cold, the (studied) ice sheet grew due to increased precipitation that fell as snow, and more than made up for any melting. But at some point the warming became more pronounced, did not offset any increases in snow, and the ice sheet disappeared fairly rapidly." “Scientists believe those exact forces may both be displayed as the Earth warms due to the greenhouse effect – there may be some increase in the East Antarctic ice sheet, where the climate is much colder, and rapid loss of ice in Greenland.” Just a thought that this may connect to this topic.

Hi Rob5559 When they did satellite studies of the Gulf Stream as it flowed past the East coast of America, they found that instead of it being the nice smooth stream of water that they had thought it was, it turned out to have myriad ripples, whirls and backwater areas. Presumably much the same applies to the North Atlantic - perhaps also caused by local effects such as seabed variations and coastal irregularities. I haven't looked into that aspect yet.

Hello everybody I reckon that there are two things that seem to be fixed – whether we like it or not. 1. The temperature of the earth, as a whole, is warming up. For what reason is a matter for another topic. 2. The North Atlantic is having problems, seemingly caused by an increase of fresh water. Again, the cause and outcome are for others to discuss. The combined results are again twofold. 1. The climate is getting warmer with many parts of the globe beginning to suffer extremes of weather. 2. Parts of the world which are influenced by the North Atlantic are cooling down. The end result must surely be that we, on the edge of the North Atlantic will suffer – at least for a while – before the overall effect of global warming overcomes the cooling effect of the Ocean. Our little corner of the world may well cool down – typical of us to be different! My only question is – how long will the cooling last before the heat overcomes the cold?

Brief belt of rain just cleared through. About 1.5 mm but there are lots of heavy threatening clouds to come. But.....the sun is shining between them. B)