Luke Best

How do people see the south coast's chances of something spectacular this week? I suspect our best chance is an MCS drifting up from France and hopefully staying alive during its crossing of the Channel.

I work in Totton (West Southampton) and Cu tried to build all afternoon but kept collapsing. Late afternoon the sky cleared and a CB could be see towering into the clear blue sky to my east. This was the Basingstoke cell: I could still see it from home in Christchurch! Typically, I was working in Basingstoke every day last week.... Always in the wrong place!

Cu keeps trying to build here west of Southampton but just collapse again - certainly nothing going to happen here.

Where are you based? (you can add your location to your avatar)

Any thunderstorms that break out will be surface-based (albeit high-based), not elevated. The following link gives a decent explanation of elevated vs surface-based thunderstorms: http://wxcentral.blogspot.co.uk/2005/11/elevated-thunderstorms-and-high-based.html

Loving the reaction to a close lightning strike, "Mother Effer"!!!

Hope everyone in Carney is OK, that didn't look good.

Looks like the camera currently streaming on News9 is in line for a direct hit!

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76680-sunday-1st-daily-brief-for-tour-3/page-4 Live Streaming - tornado on the ground.

Just posted for Wichita: Tornado Warning for Sedgwick Co, KS Print the AlertSend via EmailShare on TwitterShare on Facebook Active for next 24 minutes Location: Sedgwick Posted 4 minutes ago – National Weather Service How likely:How soon:How severe: The original text for this alert has been automatically reformatted to correct capitalization. A Tornado Warning remains in effect for Southern Sedgwick County until 4:15 pm CDT. Tornado emergency for Wichita. At 3:45 pm CDT, a confirmed large, violent and extremely dangerous tornado was located on the southwest side of Wichita, and moving northeast at 30 mph. This is a particularly dangerous situation. Hazard, deadly tornado. Source, weather spotters confirmed Tornado. Impact: You could be killed if not underground or in a tornado shelter. Complete Destruction of neighborhoods, businesses and vehicles will occur. Flying debris will be deadly to people and animals. Locations impacted include: maize, Downtown Wichita, Wichita, Bel Aire, mcconnell Air Forc. East Wichita and Oaklawn. Observed tornado damage threat, catastrophic hail, 2.75IN. Recommended actions This is an extremely dangerous tornado with complete devastation likely. You could be killed if not underground or in a tornado shelter. Do not delay, seek shelter now! If no underground shelter is available seek shelter in an interior room of the lowest level of a structure, or if time allows, consider moving to an underground shelter elsewhere. Mobile Homes and outbuildings will offer no shelter from this tornado. Excerpted from ready.gov Before: Build an emergency kit and make a family communications plan. Be alert to changing weather conditions. Look for approaching storms. Look for the following danger signs: Dark, often greenish sky Large hail A large, dark, low-lying cloud (particularly if rotating) Loud roar, similar to a freight train. If you see approaching storms or any of the danger signs, be prepared to take shelter immediately... More about: What to do before a tornado. During: If you are under a tornado warning, seek shelter immediately! Most injuries associated with high winds are from flying debris, so remember to protect your head. If you are in a structure, go to a pre-designated shelter area such as a safe room, basement, storm cellar, or the lowest building level. If there is no basement, go to the center of an interior room on the lowest level (closet, interior hallway) away from corners, windows, doors, and outside walls. If you are in a trailer or mobile home, get out immediately and go to the lowest floor of a sturdy, nearby building or a storm shelter. If you are in the outside with no shelter, immediately get into a vehicle, buckle your seat belt and try to drive to the closest sturdy shelter. Do not get under an overpass or bridge. You are safer in a low, flat location. Watch out for flying debris. Flying debris from tornadoes causes most fatalities and injuries. More about: What to do during a tornado. What is a Tornado Warning? WatchWarning This is issued when a tornado is indicated by the WSR-88D radar or sighted by spotters; therefore, people in the affected area should seek safe shelter immediately. They can be issued without a Tornado Watch being already in effect. They are usually issued for a duration of around 30 minutes. A Tornado Warning is issued by your local National Weather Service office (NWFO). It will include where the tornado was located and what towns will be in its path. If the tornado will affect the nearshore or coastal waters, it will be issued as the combined product--Tornado Warning and Special Marine Warning. If the thunderstorm which is causing the tornado is also producing torrential rains, this warning may also be combined with a Flash Flood Warning. If there is an ampersand (&) symbol at the bottom of the warning, it indicates that the warning was issued as a result of a severe weather report. After it has been issued, the affected NWFO will followed it up periodically with Severe Weather Statements. These statements will contain updated information on the tornado and they will also let the public know when warning is no longer in effect. Source: weather.gov

According to Ian Fergusson (BBC Weather Presenter) they largely ignore it too.

Blimey - I see Munch's The Scream!!!

Bournemouth also has rain. Rapodo location today is near Blandford Forum. So close, and yet so far....

Ahh, lucky you. Just rain down here but had a terrific hail/thunderstorm yesterday afternoon so can't complain.

Where abouts is this Rapodo?

Where abouts in Bournemouth are you - I'm in Christchurch and it's just rain here.

Hmm...I'm not so sure. The one constant I have noticed over the course of this winter is the remarkable accuracy of met office forecasts. Us amateurs may struggle to get a real handle on developments late next week before Monday with the model output data available to us, but perhaps the professionals have a little more to work from?

But look at the radar - those to the west have had it. Pivoting of front may still deliver IOW eastwards, although precipitation has recently petered out. May pep up again later.

I don't think they got anything.

Tropical.

Yes, same over in Christchurch. Would ordinarily be delighted to see it, it's just the knowledge that we were so close to something a bit special that makes it a disappointment.

But to be fair Fred, I think the forecasts were all pretty much spot on. We all hoped they might have got it wrong, but they didn't.

Anything settled on the roads Cliffy?

I recall our Dutch friend banging on (and on and on) about a spell of March weather remarkably similar to the one we may be about to experience. Interesting that the CMA was doggedly progging similar synoptics so far out in advance. Does anybody know whether it stuck to its guns throughout the last few weeks?

Taken from Ian F's Twitter account: W COUNTRY Amendments will be made today to UKMO Yellow Warning re Sun-Mon snow: am now hopeful for reduced threat in our region, but v wet! W COUNTRY Broad f'cast agreement now for little or no disruptive snow risk by Mon in SW & the far S. Bit trickier in N of region (Cotswolds) Not good for us Southerners.