Big Bear

Woke up last night about 4.30am to some of the loudest thunder and most impressive lightning i've seen in this country for years. Another storm passed with lots of thunder & intense fork lightning about an hour ago here in west sussex.

Ever the pecimist, Paul of course they are experimental. I don't think a hefty reminder is necessary every time these come out. Newcomers will gather this by reading the thread anyway. Without LRFs, then how would we learn and compare results for future lessons and forecasting methods.

Excellent post Steve I really enjoy your analysis every time. It's so good to have your knowledge & experience shared here once again as we approach another winter season with hopefully lots of snow and that easterly we all long for. :excl: Like Roeder's early prediction, I find all these examplenentory European LRF charts so interesting. The signs are good but before we start wetting ourselves let just remember we've all been here before and the chance for a mild winter realistically stands stronger than a cold one.

I see the GFS is maintaining the trend for low pressure skirting over/under the UK throughout October. With high pressure taking hold over northern Europe & Scandy. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html Interesting pattern developing here

Based on Summer Blizzards comparison to Feb 63 - it means a below average and potentially snowy (widespread) month ...I expect a sharp NE feed from Scandinavia with pressure values like those. January even more interesting with real easterly components. Does anyone have an idea of how accurate Roeder's forecasts are when it comes to winter LRFs?

Regarding the blue and red illustrated areas on those Dec/Jan/Feb sea pressure predictions, one would have to assume the blues are low pressures going by the tightness of 'ico bar-esque' gradients... and the much less steep differences in the red/ high pressure areas.... even if these are sea pressure anomalies, and how this relates to air pressure behaviour. I do hope I'm wrong though. I remember the same debate this time last year over these charts. Can anyone clear this up?

Well Paul, if you flipped that coin a thousand times, you would have to expect a run like we're currently in at some point wouldn't you. Just because its the here and now doesn't necessarily mean its a never ending upward trend.

My point was basically that people will always blame GW for above average winters, until the next proper cold spell. Even then, the cold spell will probably be 'all because of GW as well'.. .along with above average rainfall, below average rainfall and above average temperatures. Goes back to what I was saying about scaremongering - no matter what the type of weather we're having.

Thanks Kevin and Paul for coming back with all that data. So it appears almost a centry ago the UK was in a mild run (12 years) of winters. I bet they were not ramping on and scare-mongering about global warming then If it was so mild for so many winter seasons 100 years ago then whos to say the repeat we're suffering of 13 years now won't end this winter, or next winter.. or soon after that. The fact is by the law of averages (and the law is the law) that we will see a below average winter or at least 1 winter month soon, snowless or not. As for all this talk about 'the wrong' easterlies, in my books if its 6 degrees with a gentle SE breeze and light-grey murky skies, it ain't an easterly!!

Thanks Paul Yes that helps, but can you also answer this... When was the last significant run of mild winters? BB

in light of this great post, when was the last 15 year (or similar) mild run of years? This will help me determine whether a cold winter is due soon and also aid in my winter LRF this year. Thanks in light of this great post, when was the last 15 year (or similar) mild run of years? This will help me determine whether a cold winter is due soon and also aid in my winter LRF this year. Thanks

Hi Steve When are you releasing your first winter LRF installment? I really respect your knowledge & take your forecasts with no added salt.

Actually, August was average. 0.1 degrees above average to be precise. The Met office may have got last years LRF quite right but remember the success rate is based on wild fluctuations between reasonably accurate - to wildy innacurate and we just don't know what is around the corner besides another probable mild & westerly dominated Dec/Jan/Feb

Better than the south coast, which saw nothing other than a couple of sleety showers and a few frosts in December. I am predicting a huge anti cyclone to position itself over Norway by the end of December. Whether we get the lows diving underneath this HP into France or not, is the question on everyones lips. With a southerly tracking Jet also predicted for early Jan I think we can safely say it will be a very cold new year perhaps with some snow if the high pressure holds.

In contrast to this again, the French MO have issued their early thoughts on Dec/Jan/Feb, with December being the coldest month, Jan being cold/ average and February being way above average.

Sorry but I have to disagree there. In recent winters with high precipitation is has nine times out of ten been spawned from the large tepid mass of liquid to our south west in the form of filthy Atlantic lows. Can anyone remember getting a soaking NOT originating from the SW or a proper powdering from the north or east since 1991? (Scotland excluded).

What was that?! even Ian Brown going for Scandy high pressures in winter?! ...amazing. I think it was around this time last year the Met Office started to use data in their winter updates which paid off with their accurate LRF. So heres hoping that nothing changes too much between now and the next update (unless its for a severe cold one of course)

This is a big surprise to me. I was expecting them to stick with their beloved milder/ zonal/ westerly theme. Basically its still too early to tell (even by LRF standards) but I get the feeling the Daily Express yesterday was tipped off by someone giving false information with their front page reading 'Winter to be our new Summer'... the usual sensationalist rubbish that puts stupid ideas into the minds of the public. I notice that southern europe currently favours wet & wild conditions - this would suggest a southerly jet with northerly blocking perhaps, negative NAO style winter.. but with average precipitation values for UK could add the spice we missed in recent years.

This is a big surprise to me. I was expecting them to stick with their beloved milder/ zonal/ westerly theme. Basically its still too early to tell (even by LRF standards) but I get the feeling the Daily Express yesterday was tipped off by someone giving false information with their front page reading 'Winter to be our new Summer'... the usual sensationalist rubbish that puts stupid ideas into the minds of the public. I notice that southern europe currently favours wet & wild conditions - this would suggest a southerly jet with northerly blocking perhaps, negative NAO style winter.. but with average precipitation values for UK could add the spice we missed in recent years.

In other words, pattern matching. That, along with hindcasting cold winters with associated cold springs.

Crikey! thats a white out! :blink: :o

I did, still warm & sunny so it seems. So whos looking forward to the Met Office first in-depth winter LRF tomorrow morning? Whats the bets the word 'cold' or 'colder' don't even feature at all? I reckon they'll go mild & westerly dominated, with wet periods throughout Dec/ Jan/ Feb.

Nothing but Sun & dry scenes with average temps of 14 degrees C on those cameras.

No, actually I meant they are worrylingly strong in the sense that they might come to boiling point and cause a huge steam plume over Northern Europe resulting in accelerated global warming.

Those warm anomolies around Norway & the baltic sea look worryingly strong. We need those to drop to encourage Scandy HP development come December.